As Pakistan faces a rise in terrorist attacks over the past few years, its troubled Balochistan province was hit this week by a series of assaults that have resulted in over 70 fatalities. The coordinated attacks, possibly the most extensive of their kind in recent history, were carried out by the separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). These events have once again highlighted the Baloch insurgency, driven by long-standing neglect and the exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources, revealing the province as a vulnerable point for Pakistan.

The attacks, which saw BLA targeting police stations and taking control of major highways, coincided with the death anniversary of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who was killed 18 years ago in one of then president Pervez Musharraf’s counter-insurgency operations.

Bugti’s death only highlighted the shortcomings of military action, as it failed to address the true needs and aspirations of the tribal population. This lack of genuine engagement led to the rise of additional armed separatist groups, which now not only target Pakistani security forces and Chinese interests but also attack Punjabi and Sindhi migrant workers.

New dimensions?
There’s no doubt that the attacks were on a newer scale and demonstrated the insurgents’ growing audacity, their robust support network, and their increasing capability to operate with greater freedom.

According to former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, Ajay Bisaria, targeting of Punjabi workers introduces a new ethnic dimension, signalling that the Baloch radicals are looking to provoke and challenge the primarily Punjabi army.

Nearly half of those killed by the BLA in the latest escalation were Punjabi workers. The Baloch people resent the influx of Punjabis who are seen as having benefited from economic opportunities arising in Balochistan at the expense of the Baloch people. This has fed into the insurgency against the Pakistan state and the anti-Punjabi sentiment that sustains it. The sentiment has its genesis in the traditional domination of the Punjabi elite in the civil bureaucracy and the composition of the Punjabi-dominated army, which lords over the province in the absence of any genuine political leadership or effort to address the local grievances.

For the average Baloch, who feels entitled to the province’s natural resources and views himself as a victim of the federal government’s biased policies, Punjabi workers represent state oppression, perpetrated by the predominantly Punjabi establishment. Extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, human rights abuses, and the establishment’s unwillingness to engage with civil rights groups have further fueled this mistrust.

According to Bisaria, the latest episode also represents a security meltdown and possibly a coalescing of the Afghan/ Pashtun and Baloch insurgencies. TTP (Pakistan Taliban) and BLA are coordinating, if not colluding. Unsurprisingly, India is being accused of being involved in the latest and previous attacks,” he says.

Islamabad has repeatedly blamed India for providing financial support to the secessionists and Iran of allowing them safe hideouts. India has officially maintained these allegations don’t merit any serious consideration and that Pakistan must introspect its own support to terrorism.

Pakistan remains under attack from the TTP in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the army has been worried for the past few years about a developing nexus between Baloch separatists and the TTP in Balochistan, which is home to a sizeable Pashtun population as well. TTP has cheered attacks by Baloch militants, accused Pakistan army of carrying out massacres in Balochistan and said groups like BLA and TTP have a common enemy. BLA has been designated as a terrorist group by both the US and UK.

The China factor
Not surprisingly, China was quick to condemn the attacks, saying it’s prepared to enhance counterterrorism and security cooperation with Pakistan to jointly uphold regional peace and security. Pakistan’s hopes of turning the resource-rich Balochistan, its largest and most backward province, into an economic and energy hub have hinged on the BRI’s flagship $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC projects, however, have been marred by violent insurgency.

CPEC facilities, along with Chinese engineers and workers, have been targeted by the BLA and other insurgent groups that accuse China of arming Pakistan against Baloch separatists and of working with Islamabad to exploit the natural resources of the province, while aiding the marginalisation of the local people. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif accused the separatists of working to scuttle the CPEC in his remarks on the latest attacks. With the BLA displaying greater operational capacity in the form of multiple attacks across the province, the CPEC, including the centrepiece Gwadar port, will remain vulnerable to the threat of violence.

Pakistan’s options
Balochistan, which accounts for more than 40% of Pakistan’s land mass but only 6% of the population, has a long history of political unrest, as insurgency seeking a separate Baloch state dates to the time of independence. Economic oppression, anti-Punjabi sentiment, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings and the plain inacceptance of the idea of Baloch nationalism have all contributed to the insurgency that is now jostling with traditionally more high-profile issues like Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan for international limelight.

In the interest of regional, particularly its own, stability, Pakistan must find a way to politically address the Baloch discontent, instead of subjugating the local population with its militarist approach. To begin with, it must look into their grievances, particularly exploitation of resources which remains a sensitive issue. Insurgency has been boosted by the perception among the local people that they are being denied benefits of the exploration of Balochistan’s considerable mineral resources.

While the army for now remains formidable enough to prevent any potential Balkanisation of Pakistan, it must encourage the federal government to enter a meaningful dialogue with the Baloch nationalists to mitigate violence and look at ways to finding a long-term solution, despite the seemingly intractable nature of the conflict. The Baloch people, with their distinct identity, have traditionally been seen as secular and it’s in Pakistan’s interest to ensure they don’t work with groups like the TTP which are driven by extremist religious ideology.

Pakistan also has to find a way to engage civil rights groups like the Baloch Yakjehti Committee that want to peacefully raise issues like enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

Implication for India
Pakistan will continue to accuse India of funding the BLA. In the past, it has justified crackdown on the separatists by talking up their alleged links with the enemy”.

India will closely monitor the Pakistan army’s response to the escalating situation in Balochistan, especially as it seeks to prevent any disruption to the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Recent terrorist attacks in Jammu have prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to caution Pakistan against using terrorism or proxy warfare against India. India contends that Pakistan needs to reflect on why there has been a rise in attacks in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan since the Afghan Taliban’s return to Kabul, a development Pakistan had anticipated would restore its strategic influence in Afghanistan.

(With TOI inputs)