Trump’s Victory and the Future of U.S.-Qatari Ties
Trump’s nominations for key administration positions provide a clear indication of the direction his Middle East policy is likely to take. Among these, the nomination of Chris Wright as Secretary of Energy signals a departure from environmental protection initiatives, as Wright is a considered a staunch critic of climate change policies, famously asserting that “there is no climate crisis in reality.” Under Trump’s directive, Wright is expected to roll back the environmental restrictions imposed by the Biden administration on the energy sector.
Rather than prioritizing a transition to renewable energy, the Trump administration is expected to emphasize a foreign policy that bolsters major oil and gas producers allied with the United States, ensuring stability in the international energy market. Qatar’s role as a key global supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – particularly following Russia’s war on Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow – has elevated its status among Western allies. This growing influence also positions Qatar to expand its regional and international roles in the coming years.
In addition, there are compelling factors that might lead Trump to further strengthen Qatar’s position in U.S. foreign policy. Between 2019 and 2023, Qatar ranked as the world’s third-largest arms importer, accounting for 7.6 per cent of global arms purchases, just behind Saudi Arabia’s 8.4 per cent. This statistic is significant for Trump, who has consistently prioritized boosting the U.S. trade surplus through arms exports. Consequently, Qatar’s substantial arms acquisitions could serve as a critical negotiating tool in its relationship with Washington.
Compared to Biden’s nominees, Trump’s selections for key foreign policy and defense roles reflect a notably more hawkish stance on Iran and its nuclear ambitions. This is especially true of the nominations of Mark Rubio for secretary of state and Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, which suggest that the Trump administration may prioritize a heightened military presence in the Middle East, particularly along the western shores of the Persian Gulf.
In this context, Qatar’s strategic importance to the United States becomes even more apparent. As a major non-NATO ally, Qatar hosts the Al Udeid Air Base, home to the U.S. Central Command, the U.S. Air Force Central Command, the Combined Air and Space Operations Center, the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, and the 319th Reconnaissance Wing. Al Udeid remains the largest U.S. base in the Middle East and North Africa, serving as a cornerstone of America’s military presence and influence in the region.