Iran’s purchase of the Su-35 shows its desperation to demonstrate an ability to deter further Israeli airstrikes.
The Islamic Republic of Iran was the last great power to fly the vaunted F-14 Tomcat. In the wake of the strategic disasters that the nation has experienced over the last year in the Middle East, such as losing their longtime Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, and then having their air defense network decimated by Israeli airstrikes, Tehran is moving quickly to mitigate these significant losses.
Iran’s military has already purchased a tranche of Russian-built S-400 air defense systems, and they are expanding their indigenously produced anti-aircraft and anti-ship systems.
Now, Iran is in the throes of purchasing Russia’s 4.5-generation warplane, the Sukhoi Su-35. These birds will be used in conjunction with Iran’s growing air defense capabilities to better defend their country against what the Islamists who purport to rule Iran believe to be real military threats from both Israel and the United States.
The Su-35s Delivered
Thus far, it appears that two Su-35s were delivered to Iran (in pieces, to be assembled at Iranian airbases). 48 more of the planes are reportedly on the way; they are intended to replace the aging American F-14A Tomcats, as well as the even older F-4E Phantom IIs.
The Su-35 is no longer on the cutting edge of aviation worldwide; they are not fifth-generation aircraft like the F-22 Raptor or China’s Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon.” But they are far more capable than Iran’s existing fleet, and they will help to deepen existing ties between Moscow and Tehran. Indeed, the recent sale comes on the heels of the historic formalization of military, economic, and diplomatic ties between both nations, which have grown closer over the past decade (and particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022). Clearly, with the loss of the Assad regime and the empowerment of Israel and the United States—as well as the growing influence of Turkey via Syria into the Middle East—Tehran desperately needs allies.
Russia, too, wants to ensure that it does not lose a key partner in the Middle East, like Iran, now that its other main Mideast ally, Syria, has collapsed. A formal agreement would further deter the United States and Israel from seeking regime change in Tehran, which the Kremlin assumes is a project that is underway.
The sale of the Su-35 is occurring in a larger movement by an increasingly desperate Iran to show their ability to deter further Israeli or even American airstrikes against their country. Recently, the Iranians revealed a network of bunkers located deep underground that, according to experts, cannot be destroyed by airstrikes. In these bunkers, Iranian state television revealed an arsenal of fast-attack boats and missiles. This was in conjunction with a massive Iranian naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.
Understanding the Geopolitics of the Sale
Clearly, Tehran wants the world to understand it can harm global shipping. Already, the world has been made to endure the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi Rebels interrupting key global shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb from their redoubt in Yemen. Should Iran decide to intervene against global shipping through the even more important strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, the world will feel the pinch almost immediately.
Beyond that, Tehran’s rulers have made occasional noises about fast-tracking their nuclear weapons program to ensure that they have an expansive arsenal capable of reliably deterring the Israeli and American militaries. Of course, possession of nuclear arms is the one red line that President Donald Trump has listed as a casus belli for U.S. military intervention against Tehran. But the Iranians have a quasi-religious commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons. So, it is doubtful that Iranian leaders can simply abandon their decades-long quest to achieve a working nuclear weapons capacity.
With their small but growing Su-35 fleet, the Iranians are indicating their ability to defend their homeland against air attacks from Israel and the United States. Surely, the Su-35 is a reliable fighter. But it has significant detractors in the West, who claim its mixed performance in Ukraine has harmed its once decent reputation. Of course, this might be the stuff of propaganda, since many Western complaints about Russian military capabilities during the war have been shown to be overstated or inaccurate.
Is the Su-35 the Right System for Iran?
The biggest reason behind the Su-35’s mixed record in Ukraine, though, has been because of its deployment over territory heavily defended by Ukraine’s NATO-provided air defense systems. Since the Su-35s in Iran will ostensibly be deployed in a defensive manner against incoming Israeli or even American airstrikes, the Su-35s might prove to be more effective over Iran than they have in Ukraine—particularly when used in conjunction with Iran’s layered air defenses. On the other hand, one can never underestimate the advantages that more cutting-edge systems like Israel’s F-35I “Adir” warplanes give the attacking side.
One element of the Su-35 that has proven to be a decisive advantage is the Ibris-E radar, as well as numerous electronic countermeasures that help protect the plane from enemy attack. The radar system, in particular is key for the long-range attack and interception capabilities of the Su-35. As for the plane’s armaments package, it can carry a variety of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, which will allow the Iranian Air Force to threaten its rivals with a multiplicity of different attacks.
Ultimately, however, the Iranians have only received a handful of these planes. That’s nowhere near enough to counteract the kind of firepower that Israel and, possibly, the United States might deploy against them. Iran’s only viable option is not military confrontation, but accommodation with Israel and the United States. It is doubtful, however, that the Islamist regime is capable of such a policy, given its ideological predilections.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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