As speculation mounts over possible negotiations to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is important to understand the nature of the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin almost three years ago. Crucially, this is not a conventional war for land that can be resolved by offering limited territorial concessions. Putin’s goals are far more ambitious. He is waging the current war in order to undermine the existing international security architecture and replace it with a new world order where a handful of great powers are able to dominate their neighbors.
Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has repeatedly outlined his vision for a “multipolar world order” that would reverse the verdict of the Cold War and create a world divided into spheres of influence. By challenging the sanctity of borders with his invasion of Ukraine, Putin aims to remove a central pillar of today’s global security system and normalize the use of military force in international affairs. If his efforts are perceived as successful, this will set a disastrous precedent that will embolden authoritarian regimes around the world.
Putin’s dream of establishing a new world order is reflected in his push for bilateral talks with the United States to discuss the fate of Ukraine and Europe without Ukrainian or European participation. He wants to demonstrate that sovereignty is negotiable and convey the message that some nations are more equal than others. The consequences of this approach could be catastrophic for both Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
The world order Putin hopes to usher in would be governed by the laws of the geopolitical jungle and defined by insecurity and aggression. Armed conflicts would proliferate around the world as previously accepted rules of international relations were replaced by the overriding principle that “might is right.” The unprecedented global economic prosperity of the past three decades would also be threatened amid mounting barriers to trade and record levels of defense spending. The only obvious beneficiaries would be nations like Russia that seek to embrace revisionist or expansionist agendas.
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The international security situation is now so grave and has escalated to such a level that it can no longer be resolved by appeasing Russia or seeking some kind of compromise peace. Instead, Russia must lose in Ukraine, and must be seen to lose.
At present, that is not the case. On the contrary, Putin is more confident than ever of victory and sees no reason to end the war. He is projecting strength around the world and is successfully building a coalition of fellow authoritarian powers including China, Iran, and North Korea, who all provide support for the war in Ukraine and share Moscow’s objective of overthrowing the current world order.
On the home front, Putin has succeeded in shifting the Russian economy onto a wartime footing, and has found new partners to compensate for the collapse in ties with the West. He is openly preparing for a long war and is counting on a lack of Western resolve to confront him.
In order to stop the war, Putin must be persuaded that continuing the invasion of Ukraine will lead to disaster for Russia. This requires a range of measures designed to weaken Russia’s position both economically and militarily.
Russia’s economic outlook is already worsening as a result of the war and could become far more serious if Western leaders take the necessary steps. There is an obvious need for greater coordination between the United States, UK, EU, and other countries engaged in sanctioning the Russian war effort. Implementation of existing sanctions remains inadequate, while tougher measures are needed to target intermediaries.
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Economic hardships alone will not bring Putin to the negotiating table. He must also be forced to confront the prospect of military defeat. This will require a major shift in thinking among Ukraine’s partners. At present, Ukraine finds itself forced to fight a defensive war of attrition with the aim of inflicting unacceptable losses on the invading Russians. However, Putin clearly has a very high tolerance for losses, and can also call upon huge untapped reserves of manpower to replenish the depleted ranks of his army. If the current war of attrition continues, Russia will eventually and inevitably win.
Instead, Ukraine must be equipped to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to beat Russia, but currently lacks the military capabilities to turn local victories into a war-winning position. This needs to change.
Western fears of escalation mean Kyiv is still being denied a wide range of weapons and faces restrictions on its ability to defend itself. As a result of this overly cautious approach, the Kremlin is able to wage a total war against Ukraine with little fear of major counterattacks inside Russia. Putin also enjoys overwhelming advantages in firepower, including a far larger and more advanced air force. No NATO member state would even consider fighting a war without adequate air power, but that exactly what Ukraine is currently being expected to do.
So far, the West has been arming Ukraine to survive. Putin will not end the invasion until he becomes convinced that Western leaders are determined to arm Ukraine for victory. Ukraine’s military requirements are well known. All that is missing is the requisite political will to act. This means providing fighter jets, long-range missiles, armor, and artillery in large quantities along with dramatically enhanced drone and electronic warfare capabilities.
By supplying Ukraine with sufficient military aid, the West could finally oblige Putin to rethink the current war while also creating a powerful deterrence force capable of preventing further Russian aggression. Anything less will merely create a pause in hostilities that Putin will use to rearm and prepare for the next phase of his war against the West. The price of stopping Russia in Ukraine is high, but it will be dwarfed by the costs of a new authoritarian world order if Putin’s invasion is allowed to succeed.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk is chairman of the Center for Defence Strategies and an advisor to the Ukrainian Government. He previously served as Ukraine’s minister of defense (2019–2020).
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
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