If you haven’t been following developments in the Middle East, this might be the time to tune in.
There are now reports that Iran has accelerated its effort to develop a nuclear weapon. This is somewhat surprising—not that Iran is proceeding with its nuclear plans, but that they would let it be known. After the Israeli air attacks several weeks ago, Iran’s air defenses were devastated, laying the country open to an air attack on its nuclear development facilities. These are deep underground, and so must be attacked with what are called “bunker buster” weapons.
Earlier this week, and after his meeting with Israel’s prime minister Netanyahu, Donald Trump ordered a reinforcement of what he calls “maximum pressure” on Iran to stop its continuing development of a nuclear weapon. This has been an unsuccessful US policy for at least 20 years, but Trump is building a reputation for doing what he says he’ll do.
In the press briefing after Trump’s meeting Netanyahu, Trump said again very forcefully that Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon. If they do, it will be very bad for them.”
After these developments, Iran has two choices, to continue its nuclear development program, or stand down, stop the program and make all its facilities available for international inspection. Unfortunately, it looks now as though Iran has chosen the first option—to make itself invulnerable to attack by developing a nuclear weapon.
This is not entirely surprising for a country led and controlled by a radical Shiite Islamist sect, whose grasp on reality might be tenuous. Indeed, Iran has suggested that it now has a missile that can carry a warhead as far as Europe. What they mean, of course, is as far as Israel, which is the enemy they have sworn to destroy.
However, in the end, if it is true that Iran will not turn from this course, either Israel or the United States will have to take action quickly to destroy the Iranian facilities. A resolution cannot be many months away.
How this plays out depends on many unknowables—particularly how deeply Iran’s nuclear development facilities are buried. According to reports, the US has supplied “bunker buster” bombs to Israel, but these may only have been powerful enough to reach underground facilities used by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has several facilities which are likely buried more deeply and more heavily reinforced than Hezbollah’s. If so, larger bunker buster bombs may be necessary, and may be too heavy for Israeli aircraft to carry, requiring bombers to come from the US. The forcefulness in Trump’s warning to Iran made clear that the United States itself may take the necessary action if Iran does not provide assurance—soon—that it has terminated its nuclear activities.
The latest development is Iran’s request for talks on the nuclear issue with the United States. This is most likely a tactic to buy time. If the US agrees to this, it will likely be caught in an interminable negotiation, while Iran continues its nuclear program.
If this request is more than a delaying tactic, Iran must open all its secret nuclear activities to inspection by the United States and others. The refusal to do this is a clear indication that Iran is not serious about negotiations that will end its threat to Israel.
As this is written, because of Iran’s continued nuclear development work, it looks as though there cannot be a compromise that avoids an attack—probably a US-led attack on Iran’s deep underground facilities.
The US has been trying for years to keep Iran from developing these weapons, but it seems now that time has finally run out, and President Trump—who has shown in his first two weeks as President that he doesn’t bluff—has issued what seems to be a final warning.