Geoeconomics

Canada Economics Focus

Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State

Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import…

9th January 2025 19 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications

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2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

The improvement in activity growth in China has been one reason for more bullish sentiment in the oil market around the turn of the year. However, the stimulus-fuelled cyclical upturn in China’s…

8th January 2025 0 mins read

Global Economics Update

What do we mean by geopolitical blocs?

The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to…

7th January 2025 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its…

7th January 2025 6 mins read

In the news

How Poland became one of Europe’s biggest success stories

23rd December 2024 The Times

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT

A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that…

20th December 2024 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region…

17th December 2024 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in…

13th December 2024 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere…

12th December 2024 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2025

2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for…

10th December 2024 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the…

10th December 2024 12 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Syria after Assad

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift…

9th December 2024 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Syria latest, Saudi-US security pact, Tunisia central bank

The advance by Syrian rebels, which has taken President Assad’s forces by surprise, is unlikely to have significant macro implications, but it has shone the light on how geopolitical alliances in the…

5th December 2024 8 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain…

3rd December 2024 5 mins read