Russia Hits Ukraine With Massive Volleys Of Shahed Drones

Some believe a peace deal is just around the corner, but in the last few weeks Russia has ramped up its campaign of long-range drone strikes on Ukraine to unprecedented levels. Nightly volleys of 100 or more drones have become common. The latest figures from the Ukrainian Air Force February was the worst month on record – and next month is likely to be even worse.

In February 2023 Russia launched just 45 Shaheds; by February 2024 they had stepped up to to 377. In February 2025 Russia launched a massive 3,902 drones at Ukraine. This is not a blip. Figures from recent months show a steady rise.

How is Ukraine countering this onslaught – and can they keep doing it?

Strength In Numbers

The propeller-driven, Iranian-designed Shahed-136, known in Russia as Geran-2, has a seven-foot wingspan and typically carries around a hundred pounds of high explosive, though several different variants have been found. Puttering along at around 120 mph, the engine sound has given it the nickname ‘moped’. Individually, Shaheds can be brought down easily. The challenge comes with the numbers.

The Russians are also making defence even more difficult by mixing cheap decoys in with the Shaheds. In an interview last week with Radio Liberty’s Ukrainian Service, Colonel Yurii Ihnat of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, said that roughly half of the incoming drones were Shaheds and half were decoys intended to exhaust air defense systems.

There are several type of decoy, including the Gerbera and Parodiya. These are smaller than Shaheds but carry radar reflectors to make them look bigger. The Gerbera in particular is dangerous as it can also carry electronic warfare gear to detect or jam radar, and some have a 20-pound warhead so even if they can be distinguished they cannot be ignored

U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles can take out Shaheds easily; the advanced radar can spot such targets at long range. To the Mach 4 missiles, capable of taking out jets maneuvering at high speed , a Shahed is a sitting duck. But, apart from the costing perhaps 50 times as much as a Shahed the U.S. can only produce around 600 Patriots a year. At current rates the entire annual supply of Patriots would be gone in less than a week.

Mobile Solutions

Ukrainian electronic warfare also brings down a significant proportion of the drones – estimated at 35% by the Ukrainian Air Force – but this may be more effective against decoys than the real thing. The Shahed guidance system has been repeatedly upgraded to improve jam resistance. Recent models have been found with an array of 8 antennas rather than the previous 4 in the Komet satellite navigation system. This improves directional reception so jamming sources can be filtered out. Some Shaheds have also been found with RTK navigation systems which are augmented by a signal received via SIM card.

Ukraine has responded with Mobile Fire Groups armed with automatic cannon or heavy machineguns, with at least 900 now in operation. A nationwide system of detectors, including thousands of “Sky Fortress” microphones which pick up the noise of the Shaheds engines, feed data into a command and control system. The nearest mobile units then moves into position to intercept the slow-moving Shaheds. According to one estimate, these groups shoot down some 55% of incoming drones.

The mobile groups cannot cover every possible target though, and the Shaheds can strike anywhere. This is where Ukrainian helicopters play their part. Recent videos have emerged of helicopter crews shooting down Shaheds with their machine-guns. One chopper alone sported 19 kill marks.

Beat A Drone With A Drone

While the claimed intercept rates are high, perhaps unrealistically high at 96%, clearly some Shaheds are getting through. We have seen images showing damage to apartment blocks and electrical infrastructure. As the number of drones steadily rises they may start to overwhelm the defenses. Things could rapidly spiral down from there.

The ideal solution would be a low-cost, long-range system which could be distributed widely. This may already exist: the Sting interceptor drone built by the Wild Hornets group. Building on their successes with using modified FPVs to bring down Russian reconnaissance drones , the Sting is a high speed drone designed to take on the bigger Shaheds. Sting has reportedly already been tested in action.

Other groups are known to be working on similar interceptors, including the Tytan Interceptor supplied to Ukraine by German company Tytan Technologies, and the American-made Hitchhiker, also reportedly tested in Ukraine

If any of these solutions work, we are unlikely to hear about it. If they do succeed in neutralizing the Shahed threat, the any details of the interceptors and how they find and destroy targets are likely to be highly classified.

Ukraine urgently needs an answer to the Shaheds. Over each of the last two years their numbers have gone up by a factor of ten. Next year, rather than facing a hundred drones a night, Ukraine may be seeing a thousand. Where traditional air defenses have failed, more drones may be the answer.