Did Iran’s president scuttle new deal talks with US? – analysis

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian appears to have been pressured by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei not to engage in a new round of talks with the US.

This could have ramifications because the Trump administration has been slowly increasing sanctions as part of a return to a “maximum pressure” campaign. However, it appears that the Trump administration was open to talks with Iran. Iran’s president also seemed open to discussions. What happened?

Iranian state media now says that Iran’s “president acknowledges he shifted position on negotiating with the US to match [Supreme] Leader’s stance.”  

According to the report, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says, “while he remains an advocate of dialogue, he will firmly adhere to the position set by the leader regarding negotiations.”

Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and those around him likely believed Iran was suckered into fruitless talks back in 2015, in light of the fact that the first Trump administration walked away from the deal in 2017.

“I believed that it would be better to engage in dialogue, but the Leader of the Revolution stated that we will not negotiate with the United States, and I also declared that we will not negotiate with the United States,” Pezeshkian said while attending an open session of Parliament on Sunday, IRNA reported.

“However, we must find appropriate ways to resolve problems,” he said. However, Iran’s president says he still supports dialogue.

“I may hold a belief, but when the Leader of the Revolution determines a direction, we must adjust ourselves accordingly and find the right path within that framework,” he noted.

While Iran’s president said he supports dialogue, he also wants to do it from a position of strength “They [what the US is offering] are not after negotiations…They want us to be submissive to them. But we won’t be made submissive,” he noted.

Iran may now redirect its focus elsewhere

This is important because it indicates that Iran may now redirect its focus elsewhere. Iran is not in the same position today as it was in 2015. Back then, it supported militias in Iraq to combat ISIS, and the Iranian-backed Syrian regime was struggling.

At the time, Iran sent IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani to Moscow to get Russia to intervene in Syria. Iran was, therefore, in need of some relief from pressure at the time. It had just gotten increasingly involved in Yemen, backing the Houthis in 2015.

Today, Iran is in a different position; it is much stronger in Iraq and Yemen and also helped engineer the October 7 war on Israel. It has much closer ties to Russia and China today and has joined non-western economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO.

However, Iran has also had setbacks. The Assad regime has fallen. Hezbollah is weaker. Therefore, Iran is in a very different place. It wants to increase its work with non-Western economic powers. It is not sure if its proxy war strategy investing in Lebanon and other places has panned out.

Iran’s Supreme Leader wants to slow things down and not rush into new talks. Iran’s president likely prefers more diplomacy. This is the source of the current tensions in Tehran.