US President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned Hamas that it has a “last chance” to leave the Gaza Strip, reaffirming there will be “hell to pay” if the captives were not released, as he weighs an Arab League plan for the enclave’s reconstruction and governance.
“I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.”
In a follow-up post, he addressed “the People of Gaza” directly, saying, “A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD!”
But Arab leaders breathed a sigh of relief that Trump turned his ire on Greenland and Ukraine during an address to Congress on Tuesday and did not bring up his plan to “take over” the Gaza Strip.
For Egypt, Jordan and Gulf states, Trump’s walking back of the plan reaffirmed their impression, first reported by Middle East Eye, that Trump has been dissuaded from taking over the enclave and forcibly displacing its Palestinian inhabitants.
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One Egyptian official who spoke to MEE said, “Trump did not mention the Gaza Riviera in his speech!” adding a heart emoji to his text.
A Jordanian official texted a similar message, saying, “We won him over.”
Trump’s speech to Congress came briefly after the Arab League endorsed an Egyptian plan for post-war Gaza governance.
While that proposal is vague on the details of who will fund the estimated $53bn in reconstruction, Arab officials and analysts say it sidelines Hamas because it states that the Palestinian Authority would govern the Gaza Strip.
“From the perspective of the US’s Arab leaders, Trump leaving Gaza out of his speech is certainly a win. It reduces the pressure they were under to respond to forced displacement,” Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East programme at the Wilson Center, told Middle East Eye.
But Trump now appears to be focusing directly on what Bader al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE, was the “elephant in the room”, which is “what do we do with Hamas, and to be fair, there is nothing in the Arab League proposal specific on Hamas”.
“Trump’s Gaza riviera was a bluff all along. It was clearly a negotiating tactic. He upped the ante and expected the Arabs to respond,” Saif said.
Hamas talks as leverage against Netanyahu?
Israel flat-out rejected the Arab states’ post-war plan on Tuesday, but there are small signs that it could be in for turbulence with the Trump administration.
The White House said on Wednesday it had entered direct talks with Hamas on captives in Gaza, breaking a long-standing policy of Republican and Democratic administrations to boycott the group, which is listed as a US terrorist organisation.
Trump already jolted the US establishment by starting talks with Russia, and Trump advisor Elon Musk reportedly met the Iranians last year.
The White House said Adam Boehler, Trump’s nominee to be special envoy for hostage affairs, had the capacity to meet with Hamas. There is one American captive left inside Gaza, Edan Alexander.
A former US official said Trump himself would have had to sign off on Boehler meeting Hamas.
The Trump administration’s decision to start direct talks with Hamas appeared to jolt Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office offered a muted response, saying, “Israel has expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas.”
The Trump administration has approved arms sales to Israel and publicly said it backs its ally if it decides to resume its war on Gaza, but talking with Hamas could deeply unnerve Israel, especially if the US throws its weight behind the Arab League’s Gaza plan, backed with Gulf money.
“This could be used against Netanyahu,” Saif, at Kuwait University, told MEE. “All bets are off.”
“The administration brings an anti-establishment way of thinking. There could be an opening on Gaza.”
Negotiating tactic
However, David Schenker, who led the State Department’s Middle East bureau during the first Trump term, said the Arab states’ plan was underwhelming.
“I give it a gentleman’s C. The Trump administration was looking for an Arab proposal that included security and governance. They got a one hundred-page document with one paragraph about governance and security and no mention of Hamas,” Schenker said.
“Trump may or may not be wedded to the forced displacement of two million Palestinians, but King Abdullah promised him another plan. I don’t think this is sufficient,” he added.
The White House’s response to the Arab League’s 91-page plan was left to Brian Hughes, the National Security Council spokesperson, who said, “The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”
Hughes added, “President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas. We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region.”
The Arab states’ sigh of relief is partly a reflection of how they understand the Trump administration, analysts say.
The Arab rulers look past the remarks of spokespeople and diplomats, instead giving weight to the direct remarks of a small, tight-knit circle of Trump advisors, like Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and the president himself, analysts say.
The plan’s roll-out also coincided with what appears to be a major concession to the United Arab Emirates, which enjoyed good ties with the first Trump administration.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced the same day the Arab League endorsed the post-war Gaza plan a general amnesty for expelled members of the Palestinian political party, Fatah.
Analysts say that octogenarian Abbas has been under tremendous pressure from Arab states, especially Jordan and Egypt, to signal that he is open to a change of power.