Iran currently faces a new wave of challenges that test its strategies. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, Israel’s assertive posture in the Middle East, and slow progress on domestic reforms are significant hurdles, writes Daniyal Meshkin Ranjbar.
As we reach the culmination of 46 years of sustained sanction pressures against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is crucial to examine the country’s experiences and adaptive strategies throughout this period. Iran’s adaptation in the face of sanctions can be portrayed as a process of challenge and response: challenges from the West and Iran’s responses to these pressures.
Western sanctions policy toward Iran has consistently aimed at facilitating regime change in order to establish a government aligned with the values and interests of the sanctioning nations. The strategy involves a progressive tightening of measures to intensify pressure on target states when initial steps fail to achieve the desired outcomes. This approach has been evident in every phase of sanctions against Iran, with Western powers employing economic sanctions to destabilise Iran’s economy. The underlying logic was that economic destabilisation would incite public dissent, ultimately contributing to regime change.
An analysis of the past 46 years reveals three distinct stages of sanctions pressure on Iran. The first stage (1979–2004) encompasses two key phases: the initial imposition of nuclear and smart sanctions from 1979 to 1994 and the “Dialogue of Civilisations” era (1994–2004), during which Iran sought engagement with the international community. The second stage (2005–2018) begins with a period of heightened international sanctions and confrontational diplomacy (2005–2014) and transitions to a temporary reprieve during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from 2015 to 2018. The third stage commences with the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the introduction of the “maximum pressure” campaign, a policy that continues to the present day.
Iran’s adaptation to sanctions pressure has evolved significantly, reflecting a combination of external pressures and domestic policy shifts. During Rafsanjani’s presidency (1989–1997), a pragmatic approach under moderate sanctions emphasised economic strengthening and improved relations with the West; it achieved short-term successes Khatami’s tenure (1997–2005) emphasised the “Dialogue of Civilisations.” It yielded limited diplomatic breakthroughs, such as the Tehran Declaration, but failed to secure enduring relief. Under Ahmadinejad (2005–2013), the most severe sanctions exacerbated economic challenges as confrontational policies led to strained relations with the West. Rouhani’s presidency (2013–2021) saw intense sanctions until 2015, with the nuclear deal providing temporary relief under his “Win-Win” negotiation strategy. However, the deal’s failure to ensure long-term benefits underscored the fragility of this approach. Raisi’s administration (2021–2023) has embraced a “Look East” policy, forging partnerships with non-Western alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS while striving to assert Iran’s role in a multipolar world.
Iran’s strategies illustrate a spectrum of responses to sanctions, ranging from pragmatic economic reforms and confrontational policies to multilateral alignments and regional partnerships. The role of diplomacy is significant for Iran. Tehran has used diplomacy not just as an instrument to bypass the economic embargoes, but also use to break out from international isolations.
Iran’s diplomacy under sanctions has focused on circumventing Western restrictions through a multilateral approach. This strategy includes bolstering regional alliances, leveraging indirect methods such as proxy warfare, and utilising the nuclear programme as an axis of the negotiation process. Practically, Iran has used diplomacy to reverse cause and effect in the negotiation of the nuclear programme.
These efforts have not only helped Iran sustain its regional influence but also enabled it to bring global powers like Russia and China into its orbit to counter Western pressure.
A cornerstone of Iran’s response to sanctions has been the development of a “resistance economy,” a concept articulated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This strategic vision seeks to counter external pressures through national self-reliance and economic resilience, and emphasises grassroots participation as akin to a societal jihad. This approach combines domestic and regional dimensions, transitioning from theoretical constructs to practical implementation during the intensification of sanctions in 2013.
The resistance economy reframes development by prioritising individual well-being and social engagement over macroeconomic indicators, contrasting sharply with Western economic paradigms. It serves not only as an economic strategy but also as a transformative social project that enlists every citizen in sustaining progress despite external challenges.
Five pivotal axes have shaped Iran’s diplomatic framework:
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Look East – Building alliances with non-Western powers.
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Nuclear – Using its nuclear programme as both a deterrent and a bargaining chip.
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Neighbourhood – Strengthening ties with regional partners to consolidate influence.
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Resistance – Promoting resilience and autonomy in the face of sanctions.
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Triangles – Leveraging triangular diplomacy involving Iran, regional actors, and global powers.
Iran’s use of diplomacy in response to Western approaches is notable. In 1998, President Khatami proposed a “Dialogue among Civilisations,” which was initially accepted by the UN and the West. By 2001, however, the concept was reframed at the UN as the “Dialogue among Civilisations and Cultures,” allowing the West to distance it from Iran and present it as a global initiative. Learning from this, Iran introduced the concept of “Resistance,” which the West could not appropriate or globalise, highlighting a strategic shift in Iran’s diplomatic approach.
By the end of 2024, the outcomes of Iran’s adaptive strategies under sanctions have become increasingly apparent. Iran has continued to leverage opportunities to emerge from international isolation, as evidenced by its active participation and collaborations in multilateral platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. Notably, Iran’s emphasis on the concept of a ‘Shanghai Hub’ was highlighted during the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of SCO member states on October 26, 2023. Similarly, its full membership in BRICS has positioned Iran to actively contribute to shaping a future new world order and enhance collaboration on a global scale.
On another front, Iran has demonstrated its military capabilities, which have the potential to be a game-changer in the region and in fostering strategic partnerships. These developments reflect Iran’s ability to respond to external pressures while enhancing its regional influence.
However, the tragic death of President Raisi in May 2024 marked a significant turning point, temporarily slowing Iran’s momentum. His successor, President Pezeshkian, has pursued a diplomatic approach characterised by continuity in neighbourhood policies and ‘Look East’ diplomacy. At the same time, Pezeshkian has introduced a National Unity Approach, aimed at consolidating domestic political factions to collective ely address sanction pressures. This strategy seeks to strengthen internal cohesion, providing Iran with a more robust foundation to capitalise on regional and global opportunities.
Nonetheless, Iran currently faces a new wave of challenges that test its strategies. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, Israel’s assertive posture in the Middle East, and slow progress on domestic reforms are significant hurdles. Despite these obstacles, the overarching goal of the West to instigate regime change in Iran remains clear, as demonstrated by the failure of initiatives like the Tehran Declaration and the JCPOA to achieve lasting resolution.
Iran’s enduring response to sanctions reflects a spectrum of approaches by successive presidents, yet all strategies align with the revolutionary values articulated in 1979 — “Neither East nor West, only the Islamic Republic.” These principles of self-reliance, independence, and national sovereignty continue to define Iran’s resilience and adaptability in the face of relentless external pressures.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club’s, unless explicitly stated otherwise.