By Charles Kennedy – Mar 14, 2025, 11:00 AM CDT
- Barclays sees Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year.
- Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.
Barclays sees Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year, down by $9 from its previous forecast, as it slashed its global demand growth estimate in mounting economic uncertainties.
“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high?-?frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note on Friday carried by Reuters.
The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.
But Barclays is not turning bearish on future oil prices as inventories around the world are still at low levels and some producers could slow supply growth due to softer prices.
“However, we do not turn bearish relative to the curve, as inventories are low and still declining, and risks to the supply outlook are also skewed to the downside, due to price-sensitive producers pulling back and geopolitical tensions,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Thursday that its current balances suggest global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.
“If OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400 kb/d could be added to the market,” the IEA said.
The Paris-based agency expects growth in global oil demand to be just over 1 million bpd this year, reaching 103.9 million bpd.
OPEC, however, sees robust oil demand growth this year and next, expecting consumption to rise by 1.4 million bpd in each of 2025 and 2026.
Early on Friday, Brent Crude prices were trading just above the $70 per barrel mark, marginally higher on the day, propped up by a new round of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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