Ahead of Germany’s parliamentary elections in February, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), emphasized Turkey’s strategic importance. In doing so, he called upon European countries to strengthen their foreign-policy cooperation with Turkey in response to mounting security challenges and potential shifts in US foreign policy. In addition, he committed to strengthening Turkey’s ties with the European Union, specifically on migration and Syrian security—while implicitly arguing that Turkey should have a “privileged” or “strategic” partnership with the EU, rather than full membership.
Now, with CDU/CSU having won the February parliamentary election, Merz is likely to become Germany’s next chancellor. Here is what to expect from a Merz-led Germany’s approach to ties with Turkey.
A more transactional approach
Expectations for the incoming German government, as the powerhouse of the EU, are considerable. These include sustaining military and financial support for Ukraine, addressing a shrinking German economy, and navigating the challenges of declining transatlantic reliability.
During his election campaign, Merz outlined a three-step plan for reshaping German foreign policy. First, he intends to restore Germany’s capacity to engage effectively in foreign, security, and European policy. Second, he aims to “win back” the trust of international partners and allies. Third, he seeks to establish clear strategic priorities. He has also appeared keen to reassert Germany’s influence within the EU. Many of these efforts will see the CDU/CSU leader forging partnerships not only with European allies but also with key regional players such as Turkey.
With Turkey’s significant role in NATO and its strategic location, Germany-Turkey relations under the likely German government are expected to remain pragmatic yet cooperative. Given prevailing geopolitical challenges and a clear shift toward realpolitik, Berlin is likely to maintain its transactional approach, prioritizing short-term strategic interests over long-term, value-based engagement. With this transactional approach, both Germany and Turkey may sideline normative concerns such as democracy, the rule of law, and human rights in favor of more immediate objectives related to three areas: security and defense, economic relations, and migration.
Yet on the other hand, Germany plays a pivotal role in shaping EU policy towards Turkey, so the new German government will face the challenge of balancing European Turkey policy with a future German approach to Turkey, whose foreign policy and domestic politics are increasingly diverging from European norms and values.
The highest priorities
One of the most pressing challenges for the next German government will be supporting Ukraine and strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities, particularly in light of growing concerns over US reliability. The controversial meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump on February 28—followed by the subsequent withdrawal (and, later, reinstatement) of military support to Ukraine—has reinforced doubts about Washington’s commitment to European security. In response, Merz and his likely coalition partners proposed easing Germany’s infamous debt brake to allow for increased defense and infrastructure spending, and a plan which was approved by parliament last week. However, securing Europe’s long-term security will require more than just financial adjustments—it will necessitate strengthening strategic partnerships with both European and non-European allies.
Security cooperation between Germany and Turkey has long served as a stabilizing factor in the bilateral relationship, despite numerous tensions. During his electoral campaign, Merz emphasized his intention to reduce Europe’s reliance on external powers. This position could pave the way for deeper cooperation with Turkey in the defense and security sectors, given Turkey’s role within NATO and its broader regional security influence. As discussion on the future of NATO unfolds across European capitals, Turkey’s role in European security architecture has gained prominence. With its geostrategic position, military capabilities, and expanding defense industry, Turkey is increasingly seen as a significant actor in the reshaping European security framework.
In addition to its potential role in shaping the future of European security, Turkey is also viewed as a pivotal partner in ensuring regional security. Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Turkey has taken on a central role in the country, while Russia and Iran’s influence has waned. In December 2024, Merz stated that Turkey will play a more prominent role in the Middle East and emphasized that Germany and the EU must engage closely with Turkey to support Syria’s economic recovery and promote regional stability.
Migration remains a crucial area of cooperation between Germany and Turkey. The issue became a contentious topic during the German elections, with Merz placing it at the top of his agenda following a series of deadly attacks allegedly involving immigrants. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), fueled by anger over immigration and refugees, secured second place in the election, while mainstream parties also adopted a more hardline stance on the issue. In an interview, Merz praised Turkey’s efforts in hosting millions of Syrian refugees as part of the 2016 EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration. This agreement included giving six billion euros to Turkey to help support the externalization of migration management, which is in line with EU and German interests.
Another cornerstone of German-Turkish relations is economic cooperation. Germany is one of Turkey’s most important trading partners and foreign investors, with investments reaching nearly $2.5 billion in 2022. In 2023, bilateral trade reached a record high of 55 billion euros. Beyond conventional sectors, Turkey and Germany have in recent years increased trade in new commercial areas, many linked to the energy transition. Eying green transformation and supply chains, Turkey aims to boost the bilateral trade up to $60 billion. German companies are increasingly involved in projects related to wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. Platforms such as the Joint Economic and Trade Commission and the Turkish-German Energy Partnership facilitate dialogue between the political and business actors in both countries. Given the search for more cooperation with Turkey on security-related issues, the defense industry can become an important sector in bilateral economic relations.
A stronger German focus on national interests, security, and leading the EU may reshape Germany-Turkey relations to be more transactional in the years ahead. But such an approach may not yield long-term success. The new German leadership should clarify its priorities and strike more of a balance—both pursuing shared interests and addressing diverging norms—in working with Turkey.
Hürcan Aslı Aksoy is head of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
The views expressed in TURKEYSource are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.