Tuesday Briefing: Two Weeks Until Election Day

The U.S. presidential race is essentially tied

With two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 vote, polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are running neck and neck, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, writes.

Harris and Trump are essentially tied in The Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Neither candidate is ahead by a single point, and in several of these states neither candidate is ahead by more than two-tenths of a percentage point.

Elections, however, aren’t decided by the polls; they’re decided by the voters. A lead or a deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between winning or losing, even though it may feel like it. Read the rest of Nate’s analysis here.

The last-ditch hunt for undecided voters: Both campaigns are desperately hunting for the few voters still up for grabs. Both camps think many of them are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.

The Lebanon conflict is ‘out of control,’ a U.S. official said

President Biden’s envoy to Lebanon said yesterday that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah had “escalated out of control.”

On a visit to Beirut, the envoy, Amos Hochstein, called for the revival of a U.N. resolution that would require Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, and for Hezbollah to be disarmed along the countries’ border.

Later, the Israeli military launched new waves of airstrikes near Beirut. At least four people were killed, including a child, and more than 20 injured in an attack near a government hospital, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Here’s the latest.

Other developments in the Middle East:

• The U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is expected to depart for another trip to the Middle East.

• The Israeli authorities said that they have dismantled a spy network made up of seven Israelis who had been gathering intelligence for Iran.

• A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the goal of the U.S. and the West, but many in the region say it is a remote prospect.

Russia hosts nations in hopes of eclipsing the West

The BRICS summit — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — begins today in Kazan, a city in southwest Russia. President Vladimir Putin hopes the meeting will show the West that, despite Russia’s global isolation, he still has important economic allies.

What’s at stake: Russia hopes to bring countries into a coalition to form a new world order not dominated by the West. While Putin will be the host, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, will arrive at the summit in a commanding position. Analysts said they would be watching how Xi interacts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, who has drawn closer to the U.S. in recent years. Here’s what else to watch.

MORE TOP NEWS

A comedy-drama television show called “Gidan Badamasi” has struck a chord with families across northern Nigeria for asking the question: how many children is too many?

Attitudes about family size are shifting across Africa. A protracted baby boom has produced the world’s youngest, fastest-growing population, opening up potential benefits for global influence and economic growth. But it also creates a challenge to educate and employ all of these young people.

Lives lived: Fethullah Gulen, who was accused of plotting a failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey in 2016, has died at 83.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

• A pop-star whisperer: Daniel Nigro has helped craft huge albums with Chappell Roan and Olivia Rodrigo. What’s the key to his success? Belief.

• Studying the dirt of ancient Rome: By learning the secrets of 2,000-year-old cement, researchers are trying to devise greener options.

• Money, sex and activism: Mia Khalifa talked to us about her choice to leverage her past as an adult-film actress.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Navalny’s prison diaries

On social media, Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, often struck a hopeful note about his country’s future. But the journal entries he smuggled out of prison were often blunter. “I will spend the rest of my life in prison and die here,” he wrote.

His reflections were pieced together by his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, in “Patriot,” a posthumous memoir released today in the U.S., eight months after his death at age 47 in a Russian penal colony. The book is laced with Navalny’s trademark wry humor and idealism. But it’s also the account of a husband and father facing reality: He will never be with his family again, Vladimir Putin might silence him, and his fight will have grave consequences for those he loves.

That’s it for today. See you tomorrow. — Gaya

P.S. The Times won two awards from the South Asian Journalists Association.

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