U.S. Adversaries Could Stoke Post-Election Unrest, Intel Report Warns

• Elections
• North America
• Amy Mackinnon

U.S. adversaries are likely to try to undermine confidence in the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, stoke unrest, and boost their preferred candidates even after polls close on Nov. 5, according to a newly declassified assessment released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Tuesday.

“Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that could foment or contribute to violent protests, and may threaten, or amplify threats of, physical violence,” according to the assessment, which was prepared on Oct. 8. 

U.S. adversaries are likely to try to undermine confidence in the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, stoke unrest, and boost their preferred candidates even after polls close on Nov. 5, according to a newly declassified assessment released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on Tuesday.

“Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that could foment or contribute to violent protests, and may threaten, or amplify threats of, physical violence,” according to the assessment, which was prepared on Oct. 8. 

The seven-page memorandum also says Tehran’s efforts to assassinate former President Donald Trump and other former U.S. officials are likely to persist after Election Day regardless of the result.  

Foreign governments, most notably China, Iran, and Russia, are better positioned now than in previous elections to exploit opportunities to sow chaos in the days and weeks after the vote, having drawn important lessons from the 2020 presidential election, which was marked by a drawn-out count and efforts by Trump and his allies to challenge the results. 

“Many of these countries did not have a full appreciation for the various election processes that happen after polls close, and now that they have greater awareness of the significance, they have greater ability to attempt to disrupt them,” an ODNI official said in a call with reporters on Tuesday. 

In December 2020, Iranian cyberactors were believed to have been behind the creation of a website called “Enemies of the People” that contained death threats against U.S. election officials, according to previous notices released by the FBI. Iranian actors also published personally identifiable information about U.S. officials in a bid to incite violence.

According to the ODNI memo, foreign adversaries are likely to use well-honed tools such as online influence operations, including “potentially physical threats or violence” in the wake of what is expected to be one of the most closely contested U.S. elections in living memory. 

Intelligence officials have issued routine warnings in recent months that Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran are working to sow division and undermine confidence in the integrity of the election—efforts that are likely to accelerate in the waning days of the campaign, particularly on social media, the ODNI official said. 

The official noted that recent intelligence indicated that Moscow was likely behind a recent unevidenced claim circulating on social media and amplified by conservative influencers that Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz assaulted a former student earlier in his career. 

U.S. intelligence believes that while foreign adversaries likely have the technical capability to access some U.S. election-related networks and systems, they are unlikely to try to interfere with the tallying of votes out of concern that it could prompt Washington to retaliate. 

An official from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said the highly decentralized nature of the election system as well as the widespread use of paper ballots and the fact that voting machines are not connected to the internet made it highly unlikely that a foreign power could manipulate the vote at scale without being detected. 

Intelligence officials have long singled out China, Iran, and Russia as most actively engaged in efforts to sway U.S. elections, but the countries have different intentions in doing so. With both Democrats and Republicans in Washington staking out a hawkish line on China, Beijing has sought to focus its efforts on down-ballot races at the state and local levels that it perceives to be in its interests. 

Tehran has sought to undermine the Trump campaign, with three Iranians recently indicted by the Justice Department for hacking into the email accounts of campaign officials. 

Russia presents the most active foreign influence threat to the election, the ODNI official said, and is likely to be “more aggressive” in its efforts to sow chaos should Vice President Kamala Harris win, noting Moscow’s preference for a second Trump presidency.