Taxes will be going up in budget – and beyond what was said in the manifesto
Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby has been giving us her analysis after speaking to the prime minister last night UK time – and now with the benefit of a bit more insight from government insiders.
In his interview, the prime minister gave a bit more of an insight into what he thought was a “working person”, hinting at tax rises for those with shares and assets.
Speaking at around 6am UK time, Beth said: “I think we got a hint there about what Keir Starmer and his chancellor might be thinking about.
“Look, there is a £40bn gap in the public finances, according to my Treasury sources – and that has to be found through a mixture of tax rises, spending cuts, maybe cuts to the welfare budget.
“Taxes will be going up in this budget, and they will be going up, I think, beyond what the prime minister said in the manifesto.
“So the next question is where are they going up and who will be hit by it.”
Beth says the prime minister’s spokesperson has clarified that those with a small amount of savings in stocks, shares or an ISA are still considered by the prime minister to be a “working person”.
Rather, Sir Keir was talking about people who “primarily get their income from assets”.
“What does it all mean? Well, I think that it could be that raises in capital gains tax are on the cards now,” Beth says.
She says there could also be increases on selling a second home and stocks and shares.
Man with tattoo of Hitler’s signature guilty of attempted murder after stabbing asylum seeker
A man with Adolf Hitler’s signature tattooed on his arm has been found guilty of attempted murder after stabbing an asylum seeker.
Callum Parslow, 31, attacked a man at the Pear Tree Inn near Worcester earlier this year during a “protest” against small boat crossings.
He was convicted of attempted murder today after a trial at Leicester Crown Court.
Parslow, who has the Nazi dictator’s signature tattooed on his left forearm, also pleaded guilty to unconnected charges, including a sexual offence.
The court heard Parslow also stored Nazi memorabilia and weapons at his bedsit.
During the trial, Parslow admitted wounding and said he had made the four-and-a-half-mile journey to the hotel on 2 April to stab “one of the Channel migrants” because he was “angry and frustrated”.
His victim, originally from Eritrea in East Africa, was eating a meal in a conservatory when he was attacked, and said of his survival: “I still look at it as a miracle. God saved me.”
At the time of the stabbing, the hotel was largely closed to the public due to renovation work, having previously been contracted to house asylum seekers from November 2022 to February 2024.
Downing Street rules out non-financial reparations as well
We’ve just had the morning briefing from the prime minister’s spokesperson.
They were asked if Downing Street’s position on not paying reparations for slavery extends to non-financial measures.
It was confirmed this is the case.
The spokesperson said: “Our position on reparations is clear, and that goes for other forms of non-financial reparatory justice too.
“The prime minister’s focus is on addressing the challenges that we face.”
They said that the prime minister has “been clear that the issues that have come up the most” at the Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM) meeting are “climate change and also the opportunities presented in terms of trade and growth between this grouping of like-minded nations”.
If you want to know more about the reparations debate, you can listen to our podcast on the topic from around a year ago.
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More than 500 people crossed Channel yesterday
We’ve just had the daily data on how many people crossed the Channel in small boats yesterday.
In total, 509 people made the trip in 11 vessels yesterday.
This means that, in the past seven days, 1,597 people crossed in 29 boats.
According to our stats, 29,154 people have now made the trip in 2024.
It means the total for people crossing this year is about to tick past the number who made the trip in the whole of 2023 – although it remains below 2022 levels.
Some 29,437 crossed last year.
Jenrick insists Tory leadership race is still ‘neck and neck’
We’ll know the next leader of the opposition in just over a week’s time.
But until then, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are still working hard to become the next leader of the Conservative Party.
Of the two, Mr Jenrick, has been more forthcoming with public events and talking to the media – but it does not seem to have shifted the dial majorly.
In a recent survey of Conservative Party members by the website ConservativeHome, Ms Badenoch had a lead of 55% to 31% – with the remainder unsure.
But Mr Jenrick maintained his belief he is still in the race when asked today.
Put to him that the contest was all but over, he said: “Absolutely not – this is neck and neck, that’s a survey not a poll.”
He added: “There’s everything to fight for, and I’m certainly going off around the country as I have throughout the summer.
“And I think my message is resonating with members and with the public that we need to learn our lessons, we need to have strong and clear policies now, not the vague promise of one tomorrow, unite the party and take the fight to Labour as quickly as possible.”
Mr Jenrick was speaking at the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign affairs think tank.
His speech made clear his hawkish views on China, Iran and Russia, and his desire to increase UK defence spending using the foreign aid budget.
Why are Commonwealth leaders asking the UK for reparations?
Calls for the UK to pay slavery reparations have grown louder in recent years.
Soon after the Second World War, former British colonies across Asia, Africa and the Caribbean started gaining their independence.
This independence movement led to some countries demanding financial compensation for all they had suffered under British rule.
More recently, social media, the Black Lives Matter movement, changes in the monarchy, and the challenges posed by climate change have seen the campaign for reparations build momentum.
This week, both the King and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are in Samoa for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) where they both face renewed calls for reparations.
Ban music out loud on buses, crackdown on spitting and stop e-bikes on pavement – Tory’s suggestions to ‘civilise’ society
When MPs go from being in government to opposition, they tend to find they have a lot more time than they did previously.
This affords them the time to develop and propose ideas and policy changes that those who are running the country might not have.
Neil O’Brien, the Tory MP for Harborough, Oadby and Wigston and former member of the government between 2021 and 2023, is one of those looking to shape the national debate.
He does so via his substack – and earlier this week made some suggestions to help make Britain more “orderly and civilised”.
This includes:
- National ban on playing music out loud on public transport with heavy fines for those who do;
- Fix pavements in ways to avoid ugly scars on mismatched slabs;
- Do more to address phone boxes and other street furniture that is covered in graffiti and stickers;
- “Crackdown” on spitting;
- Have a “galvanising” crackdown on litter;
- Plant more trees on residential streets;
- Create a “national plan” to clean up “all graffiti” – and increase sentences;
- Replace ugly buildings, and “sort” empty shops and derelict buildings;
- Get councils to address the dumping of fridges and mattresses;
- Stop e-bikes and scooters being ridden on the pavement;
- A move from reactive to preventative policing;
- “Actual” enforcement of the law on cannabis.
Mr O’Brien uses his article to concede Conservative governments between 2010 and 2024 contributed to what is in his view a less civilised Britain by prioritising “other things”.
But he also lays down the challenge for Labour to improve the country in a way that he thinks is best.
In pictures: CHOGM Samoa
The Pacific nation of Samoa hosted the meeting of all the Commonwealth heads this week.
Sir Keir Starmer made the 30+ hour trip – via the US – to get to Apia for the summit.
Below are some images of the PM at CHOGM.
‘No amount of money could fully recompense for the horrors’ of slavery
One topic that has come to the fore at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa this week has been that of reparations for slavery.
Many nations want to see some kind of acknowledgement or apology from the UK for its role in the trade of humans as part of the summit.
But Sir Keir Starmer has been looking to avoid this.
Bell Ribeiro-Addy, the Labour MP for Clapham and Brixton Hill and the chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Afrikan Reparations, discussed the subject with Sky News this morning.
She sought to give some context to the figures for reparations that have been suggested – up to £18tn. This is about nine times the UK’s GDP.
Ms Ribeiro-Addy says: “I know that there has been a quantification of what should be paid in reparations and people just need to realise… it is important when you’re making a claim to quantify it.
“However, there’s no amount of money that could fully recompense for the horrors of enslavement and colonialism.”
She goes on: “People keep focusing on the figures – and I understand why they hear these figures and they get quite scared.
“But it’s important in any claim that you make a quantification and they’ve done that to ensure that people understand the scale and the impact, the economic impact in particular, of what Britain and Britain’s actions has had on those particular countries.
“But you have to remember, you know, financial reparations are not the only way to make reparations.”
Lack of apology means lack of respect
She says instead that many of the countries would benefit from having other issues addressed first rather than just being given lump sums – with some of the nations struggling with debt.
Ms Ribeiro-Addy says they don’t have access to credit in the same way the UK does and that trade can be unfair to them.
Asked about whether the UK should apologise to the nations, the Labour MP says: “I think the reason why they’re not apologising is perhaps because of the liability.
“But a lack of an apology speaks to an absolute lack of respect.
“If we considered these countries as equals, we would apologise to them.”
Does the government think its budget will increase mortgage rates?
Treasury minister James Murray has been speaking to Sky News this morning.
He is one of those working on next week’s budget.
Yesterday, the chancellor confirmed she was planning to change the government’s fiscal rules – how it calculates its debt and the parameters for spending.
Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned this could push up the amount people pay on mortgages.
Mr Murray was less convinced.
He told us: “I would say that what we’re doing is actually about making sure that mortgages and taxes, prices, are as low as possible in the long run.
“Because if you can get the economy growing, then you put the economy and people’s livelihoods in a better position, and that’s what we’re doing.”
The way the rules are changing look set to make investment easier for the state – with the hope the private sector will follow with their own money.
Of course, mortgage rates are set by the private market, rather than the government, so the way things go next week is still in the aether.
Part of the reason the government is being so direct in its signalling in what is to come is to prepare the markets so they are not shocked when the chancellor gives her speech.
Mr Murray says: “What the markets will see next Wednesday when the chancellor stands up in the House of Commons, they will see somebody saying, we are not going to borrow for day to day spending, we’re going to get debt falling as a share of GDP, and we’re going to put in place guardrails about investments to make sure that delivering value for money and at all that will give the markets confidence.
“And it will mean that we can get the economy growing to make people better off.”