Tsvetana Paraskova
Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Nov 08, 2024, 8:30 AM CST
Donald Trump plans to renew the so-called ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, to further isolate Tehran and hamper its ability to support its proxies in the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reported, quoting sources briefed on the president-elect’s early plans.
During his first term in office, Trump tore up the so-called Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and exports.
President Joe Biden and his Administration, while keeping all sanctions on Iran in place, haven’t monitored strictly the compliance of the sanctions as they were keen to keep oil flowing amidst crises elsewhere such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Now Trump could have a personal issue with Iran and is likely to seek a maximum pressure policy, which could stifle Iranian oil exports that had just hit a six-year high earlier this year.
Trump now knows that a man with ties with Iran plotted to assassinate him earlier this year, in retaliation for the U.S. drone strike in 2020 which killed Iranian military general and hardliner Qassem Soleimani.
Commenting on Trump’s policy in the second term, Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the Middle East during Trump’s first-term administration, told the Journal,
“If he’s going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”
A major drop in Iranian oil exports, if the U.S. ratchets up the sanctions, could lead to higher oil prices, other things being equal, analysts say.
However, Trump’s other possible policies, notably the import tariffs he has pledged to introduce, could slow down global and U.S. economic growth and consequently, oil demand, other analysts note.
Low Iranian oil exports will also hit China, as it is Iran’s main oil customer buying over 90% of Tehran’s oil cargoes at discounted prices.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana Paraskova
Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.