Israel’s strategy to break the Hezbollah cycle and secure peace in Lebanon – opinion

More than a month into the maneuver in Lebanon, it has become apparent that this conflict holds lessons we must urgently absorb. 

Those who have participated in the ground operation are now united in their observations, which point to both unexpected realities and alarming insights that Israel cannot afford to ignore.

Significant enemy weakness: The enemy proved to be far less formidable than anticipated. In most villages, combat was minimal; any resistance that did arise was swiftly subdued.

Lateral, not deep, maneuvering: Our operational focus extended laterally across the sector, engaging every front line village without penetrating deeper into the second line of villages.

Villages as camouflaged military camps: The discovery of vast weapon caches, tunnel networks, and communication hubs within nearly every structure in Shia villages and towns, coupled with rocket launchers positioned toward Israel from multiple locations, made it clear: these are not mere villages but heavily fortified military outposts, shielded by a “supportive” civilian population.

Had this network been mobilized in full, Israeli casualties and captives could have been exponentially higher than previous conflicts.

Unusual wealth amid a poor nation: Although Lebanon as a whole faces economic hardship, the affluent homes, luxury vehicles, private pools, and general opulence observed among the Shia population in the south of Lebanon suggest a stark concentration of wealth.

UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army as instruments of Iranian influence: These two forces appear to be active players in Iran’s regional strategy. 

They have undoubtedly observed the tunnels, anti-tank emplacements, its booby-trapped routes, long-range rocket shipments, explosive drones, and other armaments – but have chosen either silence or active cooperation.

Deep appreciation for Israel’s intelligence community: The achievements of Israel’s intelligence agencies, particularly the Mossad, are beyond words. Their targeted disruptions of Hezbollah’s communication networks and elimination of key figures threw Hezbollah into disarray, transforming a once brazen organization into one incapable of executing its own plans. 

These efforts have been instrumental in neutralizing immediate threats, and the nation owes its gratitude to the individuals behind this critical work.

Only one way forward 

THE OVERWHELMING consensus among fighters and commanders in the North points to a clear conclusion: The only path forward is breaking the cycle.

The lessons from this conflict point to an unavoidable truth: Israel cannot allow Hezbollah to regroup and fortify itself in Lebanon once more. 

There is a justifiable fear of being mired in a “Lebanese quagmire,” but this risk pales in comparison to the peril of allowing Hezbollah to rebuild its infrastructure and resume its terror operations.

To prevent a repeat of past mistakes and secure our northern border for the future, Israel must pursue a strategy that breaks the cycle and denies Hezbollah the opportunity to reestablish itself.

Expanding the maneuver to the Litani River: Israel must secure the area up to the Litani, designating it as a demilitarized buffer zone, free of civilian populations, fortified by an additional security barrier. 

This zone would prevent any potential for a ground invasion or massive rocket attacks on Israel.

A ceasefire on our terms: A ceasefire agreement with Lebanon should include the exile of Hezbollah’s political leadership and extradition of its long-range rocket operators to Israel. 

Only through this measure can Israel dismantle Hezbollah’s political and military presence in Lebanon.

Empowering allies in Lebanon: Christian and Druze leaders in Lebanon should be invited to speak in the Israeli Knesset, demonstrating support for these communities. 

Strengthening their influence in Lebanon’s government could offer a counterweight to Hezbollah and foster greater stability within Lebanon itself.

US-backed reforms to the Lebanese system: With American support, Israel should advocate for the abolition of Lebanon’s sectarian-based “National Pact,” which divides power along religious lines and has fueled decades of instability. 

A truly democratic system could undermine Hezbollah’s control, enabling Lebanon to emerge as a stable and self-reliant nation free from Iranian influence.

These measures represent Israel’s best chance to prevent a return to the Lebanese quagmire that has haunted it through the First and Second Lebanon Wars. 

Breaking free from the grip of Iran’s proxies in Lebanon is not only feasible but essential for lasting security on our northern border. 

However, this can only be achieved if Israel’s leadership demonstrates the same courage and commitment in the corridors of power as our soldiers show on the battlefield.

With the right actions, we can bring stability to Lebanon and lasting peace to Israel’s North. 

This moment calls for decisive steps and visionary leadership that will secure the legacy of those who defend Israel and guarantee the safety of generations to come.

The writer, an IDF reserve major, is chairman of the Victory Generation Reservists movement and CEO of Ad Kan.