What do long-range missiles in the Ukraine-Russia war mean for Israel? – analysis

Ukraine fired US-made missiles into Russia, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on November 19, according to CNN.

The incident comes days after reports said the White House had said Ukraine could use US-made weapons to strike inside Russia. Up until now Ukraine has been tied down in essence, unable to fight a full-scale war, but forced to only fight Russian forces inside Ukraine using some key western made weapons. This hasn’t prevented Kyiv entirely from striking Russia, but it means that the war is micromanaged. The western logic is not to “expand” the war or “escalate.”

We’ve seen this western logic applied to the war in Gaza and Lebanon as well since October 7, 2023. What this boils down to is that enemies of the West, such as Russia and Hamas, attack western partners, friends and allies; such as Israel or Ukraine, and then the West wants to micromanage the conflict. In most cases this boils down to US policy because other countries don’t have the weight the US does when it comes to driving key issues around these conflicts.

For instance, it was the Biden administration that warned about Russia’s intention to invade Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022. It was the Biden administration that turned around an aircraft carrier on October 7 to deter Iran and Hezbollah from increasing attacks after the Hamas massacre.

However, this preference for micromanagement and fear of escalation has two affects. First, it likely prolongs war. Some people think that if a war doesn’t “escalate” and it remains “small” or “contained” this is better. But there’s nothing small about the war Iran unleashed after October 7.

The Ukrainian war has cemented the Iran-Russia-China relationship

It mobilized the Houthis to attack ships in the Red Sea, it mobilized militias in Syria and Iraq, and got Hezbollah to attack Israel. This is a regional war. It affects millions of people. The Ukraine war is also not contained or small. Millions have been forced from their homes, and swaths of the country were devastated. It has cemented the Iran-Russia-China relationship.

A second affect of micromanaging is that when something changes, such as the decision to let Ukraine use missiles like the US-made ATACMS inside Russia, then Moscow has a “right” to respond and escalate further. “Kyiv did not immediately respond to the report. The attack would mark the first time Ukraine has used the longer-range American weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia, and show that Kyiv has wasted little time in making use of its newly-granted powers,” CNN noted on November 19.

Russia will now claim it can carry out more extensive attacks, even though it is Russia that already was attacking and has ruined part of Ukraine and has rained down drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities. In essence the good intentions of not “escalating” often leads to escalation. This is also how Iran positioned itself to attack Israel directly in April and October and why Hezbollah felt it could get away with its attacks. They basically carved out a “right” to attack Israel. Hezbollah linked itself to Gaza, and so did the Houthis.

Iran claimed it had a right to attack Israel because of an airstrike in Damascus. This was odd because Iran hadn’t responded to thousands of strikes in Syria in the past. Iran chose escalation because it sensed that the west would restrain Israel and tell Israel to “take the win” after Iran’s attack. That is exactly what happened and Iran then attacked again in October. Up until the Trump election win on November 5, Iran was threatening even more direct attacks. Ballistic missiles fired from Iran are supposed to be the new norm.

 We now have to see if the Ukrainian decision and the US decision regarding how Ukraine can use missiles may affect the Middle East. It’s likely that Russia did not condemn the Hamas attack on October 7 because Russia is now receiving Iranian drones and wants to use the Gaza war to distract from Ukraine and take Western attention off Ukraine. Russia benefits from war and chaos. It benefits from war in Gaza and Lebanon. Worse, many of the weapons the IDF has found in Lebanon are of Russian origin.

Moscow is tied deeply into the Middle East and wars here. Therefore, it’s possible that the developments regarding missile attacks by Ukraine and Russia’s claims it has a right to respond could impact the Middle East. Iran may feel empowered, but this could also have other effects. In the past, we have made a mistake in the Middle East of not seeing how conflicts in places like Ukraine may have long-term, but as yet unseen, effects. It is clear now that what happens in Russia and Ukraine will affect the Middle East.