In recent weeks Turkey has once again stepped up its vocal opposition to Israel’s wars on Gaza and Lebanon, which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemns as “genocide”.
In the latest escalation, Turkey last week effectively stopped Israeli President Isaac Herzog from travelling to the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, by denying his aircraft permission to fly in Turkish airspace.
On Saturday, Herzog’s office said the president had cancelled his visit due to “security reasons”, but Turkish sources cited by several news outlets later confirmed the denial of airspace clearance.
In March 2022, Herzog became the first Israeli president to visit Turkey in over a decade in an attempt to normalise relations – which had been in deep freeze, particularly since the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010, in which Israeli soldiers killed nine Turkish activists on board a flotilla trying to break the siege on Gaza.
The war on Gaza that began on 7 October last year derailed that rapprochement. Shortly after the war began, Turkey recalled its ambassador from Israel in protest, while Israel temporarily pulled its diplomats out of Turkey.
Earlier this year, Turkey submitted a request to join the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In a further diplomatic move, Turkey’s foreign minister submitted a letter to the UN on 1 November urging a halt to arm sales to Israel – signed by 52 countries and two intergovernmental organisations.
“[Our ruling coalition] is resolute in its decision to cut ties with Israel, and we will maintain this stance in the future as well,” Erdogan told reporters aboard his plane after visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan last week.
“We, as the Republic of Turkey and its government, have currently severed all relations with Israel,” he said.
Turkish opposition as well as Israeli newspapers were quick to point out that Turkish diplomatic missions in Tel Aviv remain operational, and Israeli diplomatic activities in Ankara have also continued.
Erdogan’s remarks come amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Israel’s offensive on Lebanon and tit-for-tat direct exchanges of fire with Iran threatening a regional escalation – as well as in the wake of Trump’s election win in the United States.
Dissonance
The Turkish government continues to face mounting public backlash over its economic ties with Israel.
Many citizens criticise the apparent dissonance between President Erdogan’s vocal condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza and Turkey’s ongoing trade relations with Tel Aviv.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered significant losses in March’s local elections, partly attributed to dissatisfaction among its voter base. A segment of AKP supporters perceived the government’s response to the Gaza crisis as insufficiently robust, with some shifting their allegiance to the Islamist-conservative Yeniden Refah Party (New Welfare Party), which has positioned itself as a staunch defender of Palestinian rights.
Protests against Turkey’s trade with Israel have intensified, with demonstrators accusing Erdogan of prioritising economic interests over principled support for Palestinians. In response, the government announced a phased suspension of trade with Israel starting in May.
However, since September, reports of indirect trade being routed through third countries and Palestinian territories have sparked further criticism. Opposition groups argue that Erdogan’s administration is failing to address loopholes that facilitate ongoing economic exchanges, undermining its credibility and fuelling additional protests across the country.
“Cutting ties is not an easy job due to Turkey’s current economic conditions,” Ahmet Ozturk, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at London Metropolitan University, tells The New Arab.
Since late 2021, Turkey has struggled with rampant inflation and a devaluing currency, leading to high unemployment and significant public discontent over unorthodox monetary policies. Going forward, President Erdogan is likely to continue a “balancing act” between Israel and the Palestinians, particularly as Trump takes power.
“It seems the Trump government will be very close to Israel, that’s why Turkey will take care that relations are not very good, but not very bad either,” Ozturk added.
“Currently there is a gap [of power] in the United States, and it makes sense for Turkey to utilise this gap diplomatically,” says former navy officer-turned-defence analyst Suat Delgen.
One of the most contentious issues is the uninterrupted flow of Azerbaijani oil to Israel via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which traverses Turkey and supplies around 40 percent of Israel’s oil needs.
From Turkish ports, the oil is shipped to Israel, sparking protests at the ports and a global campaign led by Greta Thunberg under the slogan “Shut off the genocide valves”.
On 15 November, ruling AKP MP Özlem Zengin acknowledged that Turkey earns $1.27 per barrel of Azerbaijani crude transported through the pipeline. However, Turkey neither owns the BTC pipeline nor controls its operations and is legally obligated under agreements with the BP-led consortium to ensure uninterrupted flow.
Despite this, experts like Delgen argue that Turkey could invoke the ICJ’s interim measures to prevent genocide in Gaza, potentially blocking Israeli ships from Turkish ports.
For Turkey, the BTC project has been a cornerstone of its ambitions to become a key energy transit hub. “Turkey does not want to lose that role,” Delgen notes.
Ylenia Gostoli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Turkey. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict across the Middle East and Europe. Her work on refugees, migration, and human trafficking has won awards and grants.
Follow her on Twitter: @YleniaGostoli