Israel’s Security Cabinet on Tuesday approved a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which will begin on Wednesday morning local time, Israeli officials said. Why it matters: The agreement, which was also approved by the Lebanese side, will end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. It will also allow hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border to gradually return home.
• More than 3,500 Lebanese have been killed and more than 15,000 injured in the fighting, which began when Hezbollah attacked Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks and escalated dramatically when Israel launched a ground invasion two months ago. About 140 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed.
• The ceasefire agreement includes a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military is to withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army is to deploy in areas close to the border, and Hezbollah is to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River.
• Israeli officials said the ceasefire will begin on Wednesday 4am local time.
Zoom in: The deal includes a U.S.-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address violations.
• The U.S. agreed to give Israel a letter of assurances that includes support for Israeli military action against threats from Lebanese territory “according to international law.”
• “Israel will always have the right to address threats on its security like every country has,” Secretary of State Tony Blinken said on Tuesday in a press conference on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy.
Friction point: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said that the duration of the ceasefire will depend on whether Hezbollah violates the deal. He claimed he reached an understanding with the U.S. that Israel will “maintain full military freedom of action.”
• “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack.”
But two U.S. officials told Axios Netanyahu’s description of the agreement wasn’t accurate.
• While it gives Israel freedom of action to respond to threats from southern Lebanon, such as preparations for a rocket attack or building of Hezbollah outposts near the border, Israel would only be able to respond to less urgent threats — like Hezbollah rebuilding military infrastructure north of the Litani river — after consultation with the U.S., and if the Lebanese military did not deal with the threat on its own.
• “It is impossible to sign a ceasefire agreement if Israel can shoot at anything it wants in Lebanon whenever it wants,” a U.S. official said.
What they’re saying: In the middle of the cabinet meeting, Netanyahu released a recorded speech and said he supports a ceasefire in Lebanon for three reasons:
• The first is the need to focus on the Iranian threat.
• The second, Netanyahu said, was to allow time to replenish Israel’s forces and weapons stocks. “I say it openly: there were major delays in the supply of weapons and ammunition. This delay will be released soon,” he said.
• The third reason, according to Netanyahu, was to isolate Hamas in Gaza. “They were counting on Hezbollah to fight alongside them. Now they are left alone. The pressure on them will increase and this will help to free our hostages,” he said.
“The Security Cabinet approved the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire arrangement in Lebanon by a majority of 10 ministers to one, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.
• “Israel appreciates the U.S. contribution to the process, and reserves its right to act against any threat to its security.”
Minutes after the security cabinet approved the agreement President Biden spoke with Netanyahu.
• Biden also spoke to Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati who told him Lebanon agrees to the ceasefire, a senior U.S. official said.
• Mikati in a tweet said Lebanon welcomes the ceasefire agreement and that the Lebanese government is committed to implementing UN security council resolution 1701 regarding southern Lebanon and to increasing the deployment of the Lebanese military along the border.
Biden then gave a speech at the White House Rose Garden and said the ceasefire agreement is intended to be a permanent ceasefire and added that in the next 60 days Israel Defense Forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese military will deploy in these areas.
• Biden stressed Hezbollah will not be allowed to pose a threat to Israel or rebuild military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
• Biden emphasized that there will be no U.S. soldiers in southern Lebanon, but the U.S. and France will provide assistance to implement the agreement.
Split screen: The Israeli cabinet meeting took place amid a significant increase in strikes by both Israel and Hezbollah on Tuesday ahead of a possible ceasefire.
• The Beirut skyline was covered with smoke from the large number of Israeli airstrikes in the city, while air raid sirens have been going off almost non-stop in cities and villages across northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.
The big picture: Netanyahu has yet to agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas to end the war in Gaza.
• Blinken said the agreement will deescalate tensions in the region and could help to get a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal because the militant group “will know the cavalry isn’t coming,” referring to Hezbollah.
• In his speech at the White House on Tuesday, Biden said there now needs to be a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
• “Hamas needs to make a choice. The only way out of this is to release the hostages, including American citizens,” he said.
What to watch: Biden said that in the coming days, he will make another effort together with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey to push for a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal.
• He said that if a ceasefire is reached, the U.S. will be ready to sign a series of historic deals with Saudi Arabia, including a defense treaty and economic assurances “along with a credible path” to the establishment of a Palestinian state and full normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
• “I believe that this is still possible. In the remaining time I have in office, I will work to push this,” Biden said, adding that Israel will also have to make difficult decisions.
On the current trajectory, though, it appears the Gaza crisis will continue into the Trump administration.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with a statement from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and from Biden’s speech on Tuesday.