Nor will Joe. First of all, thank you for mentioning that I was director for Syria in Lebanon because it’s really relevant to what we’re talking about today, because I was there at the White House during the first two years of the Syria crisis. And this is a group I know fairly well. So first of all, we were all completely shocked. As you said, this is not something that was on the 2024 bingo card. It is a reaction to the weakness you’re seeing on the part of Iran. Hezbollah, for sure, and Russia. These are all Bashar al-Assad’s allies. These are not only his allies, but these are the governments and groups that propped him up throughout Syria’s civil war in 2014. It looked like Bashar al-Assad was really close to losing because of the efforts of the opposition and because Russia stepped in first Iran and then Russia and Hezbollah. That is what ultimately propped him up and allowed him to retain power. And so the calculation on the part of the U.S. was clearly they see that his allies are all weak, Russia’s distracted. Hezbollah has been the head has been cut off. And so now would be a good time to launch this surprise offensive. And that’s what you saw happening. But I had this reaction when I saw it happen. My reaction and analysis remains the same, even though several days passed, which is that I believe this will be temporary. And the reason for that is that, first of all, Aleppo is a very important city to Bashar al-Assad. To the Syrian government is Syria’s second largest city. It is also one of the more religiously diverse ones in Syria and includes quite a large Christian group as well. Many of those Christians, some support Assad, some don’t. Most of them just want protection from what they view as Sunni Islamist groups. And so it’s it’s an important city. It also has an international airport, by the way. This is a city that is important for Bashar al-Assad to retain control of. The reason they were able to take it was because of the surprise nature of the assault. But very quickly, you saw Russia step in and start bombarding of our strongholds in northern Syria called Idlib. That’s where this group has its stronghold where they control the area. And I don’t think that they’re going to step back even when they’re when these dictators and allies are weak, they’re stronger together. And ultimately, the Syrian government, the Russian government and Iran, they have airplanes and these guys don’t. And that is what is going to ultimately, I believe, not allow this group to retain control, to maintain control over this newfound territory that they’ve recently attacked. Assad reportedly flew to Moscow following this new challenge to his regime. Hagar Are you surprised to learn that? And what will he bring home? I’m not surprised to learn that. It’s like he’s visiting his big brother, frankly. Russia has been there for Syria since the very beginning. They share historical ties. Those ties go back decades. They the Syria and Russia used to have cultural and student exchanges. It’s a relationship that is very long in the making. And back when the Syria civil war started, the Russian government was there for for Bashar al-Assad and in 2014 actually stepped in with significant military support, with airplanes, with with air, supporting them from the top and bombarding what they said was a counterterrorism effort to target ISIS. But they weren’t just targeting ISIS. They were also targeting the Syrian opposition. And so for Bashar al-Assad to fly to Moscow is for him to go there and say, hey, we need I need your help to wrap this up quickly, I can’t fall back on Hezbollah. Back when when the Syrian civil war was at its peak, Hezbollah, the Nasrallah, the leader, now dead, leader of of Hezbollah, sent in his top men into Syria. Those top men don’t exist anymore, and there is no leadership to even make that decision. Hezbollah at this point is reeling from the from the attacks by Israel. And so they’re in no position to go into Syria and help. And so Bashar is going to kiss Putin’s ring right now to ask for as much help as Putin can offer. And although Putin is distracted and Putin himself is relying on other dictators like Kim Jong un and Iran to support his effort in Ukraine, when they while they might be weaker alone, when when these dictators unite, they are genuinely stronger together. I hate to admit that I wish it weren’t true, but it is. And so I do believe Putin is going to do what he can to support his buddy. And at the end of the day, the thing you have to remember is that Assad is proof that if you bulldoze your own people he killed, the estimates are between 300,000 and 500,000 people. He killed 300,000 to almost half a million of his own people. And he’s still maintained power. He’s not arrested. He lives in the lap of luxury in Damascus. And so he has no reason not to pursue that kind of strategy again with Russia behind him. And that’s what he’s going now to go do in Moscow is plan that strategy. Incredible stuff. The role the U.S. plays in this is what knowing that Joe Biden is winding things down. In fact, he just landed in Africa for a three day trip. You seem to think this is temporary. Will it be resolved by the time Donald Trump takes office? Well, the U.S. the interests are a bit different because for the United States, our main interest is supporting the Kurds in northern Syria, ensuring that nothing happens to them. The Kurds were our strongest ally in countering ISIS in particular. There are a key reason why ISIS has not re popped up again in northern Syria. The US, though, has had an inconsistent relationship, if you will, with its with this with this group in particular that has has pushed into Aleppo and is now moving more south. At one point was sanctioned as a terrorist group. It was viewed back when I was in government, it was viewed as Al Qaida in Iraq, but in Syria. And they have since changed. And so I don’t want to paint them that way entirely. I also don’t want to sugarcoat it for you. This is a group that has very conservative Islamic views. They say that they won’t impose Sharia law, but they are a very conservative Islamic group. But they have since disavowed support for terrorism. They have disavowed their ties to terrorist groups. And many experts believe that that may that may change. I don’t trust them as far as I can draw them. And I tell you that now because that is my experience in the US government. But that said that the US does have a relationship with this group. Turkey in particular has a strong relationship with this group and has given them a lot of international assistance, which is what has allowed them to maintain control over the north of Syria. And so the United States, in this effort at this point, especially at the end, during this time when you’re wrapping up a presidency, President Biden is is traveling in Africa. There he’s you have almost Hochstein who is trying to broker another ceasefire deal in Gaza. That’s going to be their focus when it comes to Syria. The only thing they’re going to be able to to to maintain is to try to argue that the Kurds remain safe, that nothing happens to the Christian communities in Syria. That and also that this group is aware that they might that they shouldn’t bite off more than they can chew, because what could happen is that Assad only retaliates with Russia and Iran behind him to crush civilians once again. And that is likely what he will do. In our remaining couple of minutes here. Then Hagar turned the page to the next administration. What does a DNI, Tulsi Gabbard, inside the White House, mean then, for the U.S. relationship with Syria? That’s a good question. I had a hard time maintaining a straight face. Tulsi Gabbard, for viewers who don’t know, traveled to Syria back during the Syria civil war, said that Bashar al-Assad was not an enemy of the United States, though then she tried to retract that. And she also rejected intelligence assessments that that confirmed with high confidence that Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. I can tell you, again, having been on the other side of that, when those chemical attacks happened, that the bar that the intelligence community must reach to make that assessment and to make that assessment with high confidence is a very high bar. So to have somebody who has publicly rejected the assessments of our intelligence community to now be leading that position and on top of it, to have shown a desire to be cozy or to look at Bashar al-Assad through rose colored glasses is concerning because that position is the one that briefed the president every day in the presidential daily brief and and briefs the president on our biggest threats. And so you don’t want that person viewing President Assad in any way as a rosy person, as somebody who who ensure stability. And you also don’t want that person just blatantly rejecting the assessments of our intelligence analysts who who truly serve at the pleasure of the president, who are not partisan and who do remarkable work. And so that’s my concern with Tulsi Gabbard at the top. Yeah, I can tell. Hagar, we’re out of time. But do you think she’ll be confirmed with everything you just said? I think it would be tenuous, but I just don’t think she’s the most concerning for some of the other candidates. And I believe that that’s where you’re going to see. I don’t know. It’s hard to say. It’s hard to say it’s her. She could pass. She could pass. But there are others, I think would would would not pass muster before her.
