On March 10, a discussion on nuclear energy and the outcomes of the IAEA Board of Governors session took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. The event was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club.
Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, emphasized that the rotation of IAEA observers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was conducted through Russian territory for the first time. This decision followed attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the rotating personnel and Russian military escorts in December 2024 and February 2025. Against this backdrop, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi agreed that the only safe route lay through Russian territory. “He faced criticism for this, but less than one might have expected,” Ulyanov added. Speaking about Iran, he noted that the situation appears alarming. On October 18, the JCPOA and Resolution 2231, which endorsed the “nuclear deal,” will expire. “There is no alternative plan in place, nor are there even attempts to develop one as of today,” the diplomat summarized. He believes it is essential for the United States to finally articulate its position more clearly and return to the negotiating table. Otherwise, uncontrolled escalation could occur at any moment.
Anton Khlopkov, Director of the Centre for Energy and Security, outlined the key global trends in nuclear energy development. He noted that there is currently a renewed surge of interest in nuclear energy worldwide. A number of countries without nuclear power plants have announced plans to build them or are already implementing such plans. According to the IAEA, there are 417 nuclear power reactors operating globally. Russia has around 40 nuclear power units, generating approximately 20% of the country’s electricity. By 2045, the share of nuclear power in Russia’s electricity production is expected to increase to 25%. Currently, 62 new reactors are under construction in 15 countries, with Russian technology being used in eight of them. This demonstrates that nuclear energy is one of the high-tech sectors where Russian technology remains highly competitive. In this context, the IAEA platform is crucial for Russia, enabling international cooperation, knowledge exchange, and the promotion of Russian expertise.
Ulrike Reisner, an independent political analyst and co-founder of the BRENNUS Institute Paris-Vienna, noted that European countries are turning to nuclear energy to reduce their dependence on gas and oil imports. However, this shift may lead to a new dependence on uranium. The growing demand for nuclear energy increases the risk of a global arms race. Therefore, clear rules in the field of nuclear energy, accepted by all subjects of international law, are essential – a key task for the IAEA. Discussing the situation in Ukraine, Reisner stressed the need to establish a protection system for nuclear infrastructure facilities like the Zaporizhzhia NPP to avoid catastrophic consequences for the world. “This is a matter of protecting all nations, not just the territorial integrity of one state,” she asserted. Regarding the Iranian issue, Reisner views it in the context of controlling trade routes in the region. In her opinion, maintaining US influence requires a swift change in American strategy, given the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear power.
Alireza Noori, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Shahid Beheshti University, focused on the developments surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme. From Iran’s perspective, he identified the conclusion of a nuclear agreement as the most favourable scenario. While acknowledging Iran’s violations of certain provisions of the latest “nuclear deal,” Nouri noted that Tehran initially meticulously adhered to its terms but received nothing in return except increased international pressure due to the destructive approach of the United States. The analyst added that Iran’s nuclear programme has various aspects beyond the military dimension. He stated that the current domestic consensus in Iran suggests that a nuclear bomb would create more security problems than it would solve, which is why Iran is not seeking to develop one. However, in the event of a direct threat to the country, this consensus could shift in favour of nuclear armament. According to Noori, the political aspect plays a significant role, as the civilian nuclear programme symbolizes Iran’s strategic independence. Consequently, Iran will strive to preserve it under any circumstances. Linked to the political aspect is the legal one – Iran defends its right to peaceful nuclear energy but is willing to accept oversight by international organizations under the condition of a balanced agreement with mutual obligations.