The key to avoiding full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is ending the conflict in southern Israel with Hamas, asserts Yoram Schweitzer, an expert on the Palestinian and Lebanese terror groups, on the Haaretz Podcast.
Schweitzer tells host Allison Kaplan Sommer that it is in Israel’s power to “extricate itself” from what is already an ongoing two-front war. He blames the “illusion of a total victory” promoted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza for dragging on the war for months, what he calls a “misguided policy” that has also led to the war of attrition between Lebanon and Israel.
“I think it’s in our hands to determine the future in the north” when it comes to preventing a slide into a larger war, Schweitzer says. “I think Israel has a great and significant role to play in calming down the situation.”
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A former strategist in negotiating for Israeli soldiers missing in action, Schweitzer believes that a deal must be made with Hamas exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners and ending the war. Afterward, Israel should work to “redesign our preparedness and our military readiness both in the south and in the north and prepare for a potential future war with Hezbollah, if needed” – unless a comprehensive regional political settlement can be reached.
Schweitzer says he believes internal political pressure in Lebanon and the potential devastation of a full-scale conflict means that Hezbollah is “under pressure” to accept a cease-fire that would avoid a conflagration in which Iran would be sure to join, thus sparking regional war.
Smoke rises from the southern Lebanese town of Khiam, as pictured from the town of Qlayaa, southern Lebanon, June 25.Credit: Stringer/ REUTERS
While he believes Hezbollah and Iran are not interested in the all-out war that has panicked Israelis into buying generators and stocking up on bottled water, “it’s in their interest to stick to their policy and to the war of attrition. I think that we need to understand that Israel is the one who determines the scale and the height of the flames of the war.”
Acknowledging that Hezbollah’s Iran-backed forces initiated the current conflict and is “not an innocent bystander,” he notes that “Hezbollah is mostly reactive to Israeli maneuvers and attacks” and so Israel determines “where the trend in Lebanon is going.”
Netanyahu’s seemingly concerted efforts to alienate the Biden White House weakens Israel’s position vis-a-vis both Hamas and Hezbollah, Schweitzer says, calling it a “very dangerous” and “stupid, foolish and irresponsible” policy.
“It is definitely a strategic mistake by our prime minister to attack what may be one of the most friendly administrations that Israel has enjoyed throughout the years. I don’t want to use foul language, but it’s definitely an unrealistic and irresponsible policy to attack Israel’s most significant ally.”