Al-Assad’s Fall Shifts the Balance

• For longtime Syrian allies Russia and Iran, the ouster of Bashar al-Assad is a stunning setback.
• For Syria’s two powerful neighbors, Israel and Turkey, it marks a major shift in the decades-long regional balance of power in their favor — with Israel left particularly emboldened after strikes that decimated Syria’s military capacity.
• This uncharted moment is rife with risks and opportunities for regional players.

The swift rebel advance led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that swept Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad from power after 13 years of civil war is a watershed moment for the region. After decades of mostly stasis along Israel’s effective front lines in the region, the fall of al-Assad and simultaneous weakening of Hezbollah and Iran have effectively rewritten the map. Regional states are now jockeying for position.