Whatever happens in the near term, it is obvious that there is a serious arms race occurring for dominance in the South China Sea.
China is on a war footing. From Taiwan to the South China Sea to the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, China’s military is now making itself a permanent, visible component of the world stage.
And their military doesn’t look like a tin-pot, hardscrabble flotilla. It’s a real, modern force that is supported by the world’s greatest industrial juggernaut. Specifically, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building a world-class submarine force to counter U.S. forces currently deployed in the Indo-Pacific.
For all the talk about China attacking Taiwan, there is only intermittent discussion about the greater issue of control over the South China Sea between the Philippines, a U.S. ally, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Presently, China is set to dominate this essential body of water. Of course, the Philippines is doing its best to counter the Chinese military buildup there—as are the Americans. But for every successful standoff with China, the Chinese keep coming back in greater numbers, with more sophisticated systems.
That’s because, if Beijing’s forces are to either blockade and/or invade neighboring Taiwan, the Chinese military must control the South China Sea—and prevent the U.S. from using it to deploy forces against a Chinese force attacking Taiwan.
The Typhon Missile System, And China’s Response
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that an entirely new class of attack submarines are under construction in Wuhan, China, that is likely meant to challenge the presence of US-made Typhon missile systems in the Philippines.
Last April, the then-Biden administration deployed the Typhon missile system to the Philippines. Originally, it was framed as a temporary move by President Joe Biden to take part with the Salaknib 2024 joint military exercises conducted alongside the Philippines. Although, once the drills ended, the Typhon system remained in the Philippines.
In September 2024, both the U.S. and Philippine governments agreed to keep the system in place permanently. This was billed as a response to what has been years of Chinese military buildup and aggression directed at the Philippines in the South China Sea. The Typhon missile system is based at the Laoag International Airport in Ilocos Norte, a strategic spot facing the South China Sea near the Taiwan Strait, although some reports indicate it has been moved to a more survivable location in Luzon.
The Typhon missile system is officially known as the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or the Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) system. It is a land-based missile launcher developed by the United States Army in collaboration with Lockheed Martin. The system is designed to bridge the gap in the Army’s massive arsenal, as it is capable of striking targets at ranges between the shorter-reach Precision Strike Missile and the longer-range hypersonic weapons being developed by all the world’s major militaries.
The Typhon is based on the naval Mk 41 vertical launch system that has been adapted for ground use. It can fire two types of missiles, the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, with a range of up to 1,550 miles and the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), which reaches about 300 miles and can hit both air and surface targets. In other words, this is a threat to Chinese warships that would undoubtedly be used in an invasion or blockade scenario around Taiwan.
China’s New Submarine
Here’s where the new Chinese submarine being built in Wuhan comes into play. The new Chinese submarine, according to the SCMP report, will be equipped with advanced hypersonic missiles, making China the second of the three major powers (Russia, China, and the United States) to possess working submarine-launched hypersonic weapons.
The only other major power that has submarine-launched hypersonic missiles is Russia, with their Yasen-M-class submarine. The United States, unfortunately, is still in the developmental stage of hypersonic weapons production.
Speculation abounds as to what the Chinese submarine under construction is. Some analysts assume it is part of the Type 041 (Zhou-class) family of submarines, since Wuhan is where the first Zhou-class submarine is alleged to have accidentally sunk last June after a hatch was accidentally left open. Beijing has disputed this occurrence. But ultimately, it doesn’t really matter; given the proficiency of Chinese engineers to mass produce expensive and complex platforms, like the Zhou-class submarine, Beijing can repair or replace it relatively quickly.
As for the submarine itself, the Zhou-class is equipped with a unique hybrid propulsion system that includes both conventional and nuclear power. In fact, some online sources indicate that the Chinese have placed a small nuclear reactor alongside a diesel-electric power plant, which means that the Type 041 will have high levels of endurance on deployments.
Type 041 submarines have new features that other People’s Liberation Army Navy submarines lack, such as a vertical launch system (VLS) which will allow for the submarine to fire cruise missiles as well as anti-ship ballistic missiles.
Chinese engineers have also included X-shaped tail fins that allegedly enhance a submarine’s stealth while underway. This submarine is expressly meant to deter the US and Philippines in the wake of the deployment of the Typhon missile system—which itself was in response to China’s relentless (and illegal) military buildup in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea is About to Become a Chinese Lake
Whatever happens in the near term, it is obvious that there is a serious arms race occurring for dominance in the South China Sea.
The People’s Republic of China has made significant, possibly irreversible gains in the region since Beijing began its initial manmade island buildup in 2009. The placement of the Typhon missile system, while a significant move by Washington, still puts the Americans several paces behind their Chinese rivals in the region.
Should China deploy these Type 041 Zhou-class submarines, armed with hypersonic missiles, then their hand will significantly strengthen in the region. If this deployment happens soon, the balance of power will be tipped, however briefly, in China’s favor—granting Chinese forces a window of opportunity to hold the South China Sea long enough for their forces to hit Taiwan.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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