Author: Michael Eisenstadt
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Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Program: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action
Should a negotiated deal prove elusive, policymakers will need to consider how to define a successful strike, Iran’s potential responses, and whether a strategy of prevention can be sustained. Iran’s nuclear program is one of the most pressing foreign policy challenges facing the Trump administration. While the president has expressed his preference for a diplomatic…
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If Iran Gets the Bomb: Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran’s nascent arsenal. Four decades after launching a nuclear weapons program—at a moment when the regime’s conventional deterrence has been weakened by Israeli blows to its proxies, air defenses, and missile production capabilities—Iran may finally be on the verge of building a bomb. Such a decision would require tradeoffs that could affect the security,…
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With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?
Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge. With Donald Trump’s election victory, Iran faces a period of maximum danger as it confronts the likely return of U.S.…