Author: Michael Rubin
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Is Iran Sincere About Renewed Nuclear Negotiations with Trump?
The Iranian government plays the long game. With Trump’s Pentagon signaling not only a pivot to Asia but also a pivot away from the Middle East, the new administration encourages Tehran to play the clock. Shutterstock The Iranian government is worried. With the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal set to expire, Tehran believed it would be…
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Will Turkey Become as Great a Nuclear Threat as Iran?
A model of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant in Mersin, Turkey. Wikimedia Commons via Voice of America An Iranian nuclear weapon would be a game-changer in the Middle East. Should the Islamic Republic of Iran acquire nuclear weapons, at a minimum, Iranian leaders would feel so secure behind their own nuclear deterrent that they could…
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Trump and Rubio Should Appoint a Special Envoy for the Kurds
The flags of Kurdistan and the United States. Shutterstock President-elect Donald Trump dislikes special envoys, with reason. Too many presidents and secretaries of State appoint them for two reasons: First, to bypass Senate confirmation for controversial or unpopular figures and, second, to bypass rather than reform State Department dysfunction. In the first instance, President Joe…
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Washington Must Address Turks’ Ignorance and Detachment from Reality
People in Istanbul, Turkey, go about their business in October 2024, apparently unaware of their leader’s terror-sympathizing ideology. Shutterstock When U.S. military academies teach strategy, they talk about the “DIME model” of national power. The concept is simple: Every strategy should have diplomatic, informational, military, and economic components. Across administrations, U.S. policymakers are prone to…
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Erdoğan’s Demands on Jerusalem Could Raise Questions About Istanbul’s Sovereignty
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is shown in a file photo. Shutterstock On December 22, 2024, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan rallied a crowd of his Islamist supporters in Mardin, not far from the Syrian border. As his supporters chanted, “Mr. President, take us to Jerusalem,” Erdoğan paused and then promised, “Patience brings victory.” His…
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Syrian Kurds Need a No-Fly Zone
A Kurdish man holds a photo of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during a protest against Turkish military operations in Afrin, northern Syria, in this file photo. Shutterstock Like many more recent U.S. presidents, George H.W. Bush was prone to promises and rhetoric with little thought about the impact of his words. So it was when, on…
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Western Tourists Should Leave Istanbul
A vendor’s cart awaits tourists in early morning Istanbul, Turkey. Shutterstock The largest Kurdish city in the world is neither Diyarbakir in the Kurdish region of Turkey nor Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, but rather Istanbul. Decades of Turkish repression, insurgency, underinvestment and Turkey’s bulldozing and burning of Kurdish towns and cities forced many…
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The United States Needs to Prepare to Kill Turks in Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a file photo. Shutterstock The celebrations that ended the more than half-century of Assad family tyranny in Syria are over. In the short term, Russia and Iran are losers; Turkey is the winner. After all, Turkey was the prime backer of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham rebel group that swept…
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The Lesson from Bashar al-Assad’s Collapse
After Assad’s fall in Syria, long-term rulers in Iran, Egypt, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, and Jordan may also be vulnerable to the same dynamics that led to Assad’s ouster. Shutterstock The Lesson Other Countries Must Take from Assad’s Collapse: After more than 13 years of civil war, the final offensive and collapse of the Assad family’s 53-year…
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Could There Be an Arab Uprising in Iran?
A map of Iran from the World Atlas. Shutterstock Just over a century ago, Reza Khan—the Persian military chief charged by Shah Ahmad Qajar (r. 1909-1925) with subduing restive tribes and regional leaders—sent 3,000 troops to Muhammara, today’s Khorramshahr, to crush an uprising led by Sheikh Khazal bin Jabir Khan, a local tribal leader who,…