Can Israel divorce from its weapons dependency on the US? – interview

On January 6, the Nagel Commission officially proclaimed that Israel must manufacture and produce more of its essential weaponry independently in a push to transform Israel’s national security establishment and strategy into the next decade.

This is a point that many defense officials and experts have made since the US froze some weapons shipments to Israel in May 2024 over the invasion of Rafah in Gaza.

However, in his press conference on January 6, former national security council chief Brig. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Nagel did not indicate how such a revolution could be managed. 

While few observers could disagree with the idea that having more weapons independence would be a positive development, top defense sources in the past had told the Jerusalem Post that certain changes would take a couple of years, while others could take closer to a decade, and others might not be doable at all.

Former national security council deputy chief Chuck Freilich told the Post that, “The US-Israel relationship raises broader questions about independence, even from before Israel’s founding. We would like to be as independent as possible. No one wants to be dependent.”

“At the same time, we can’t produce everything, and it is not economically worthwhile,” he said.

Freilich continued, “If we develop a good product or a good price, then fine. And sometimes there is some other country that sells a defense product, like India, or there could be some other joint development.” (Foreign reports have discussed cooperation between Israel and Singapore in certain defense areas.)

Moreover, he stated, “Maybe also we should have a larger inventory of different kinds of shells because there is a worldwide shortage.”

“But we have dependence in all areas. It’s not just about ammunition and munitions. There are all kinds of platforms we need. Even if we produce more of our own bombs, we still need to get the planes from the US in order to fly, so we haven’t really reduced our dependence on the US just by producing more bombs,” he said.

The former NSC deputy chief added, “We talked about building our own planes once and it absolutely ruined us. Something like only six countries in the world produce their own fighters. The prices for production are only becoming more and more exorbitant. Even the Europeans ‘cooperate’ and buy from the US. We certainly cannot do,” aircraft on our own.

Freilich was referring to the 1980-1987 period during which Israel explored “the Lavi project” which former defense minister Ezer Weizman had dreamed would help Israel become independent in developing its own aircraft.

However, the government ended the program in 1987, despite many successes even to the test flight stage, deciding that a mix of having maxed out the defense budget in an unsustainable way to around 18% of GDP and the seeming impossibility of competing with US defense companies in this area, were just too much.

“Even if we do manufacture a plane of our own, we would still be significantly dependent on the Americans: Many external parts such as metals and electronic components are still being imported from the US,” clarified Dr. Shmuel Even in a posting on the air force website in 2015. “Manufacturing an Israeli plane would definitely benefit the Israeli work market, but the odds of selling large quantities of the plane are pretty low due to tough competition with American industries”.

Frelich continued, “Even the Merkavah tank which Israel made – its engine comes from the US. Again, we are totally dependent.”

“Independence from US military supply is fanciful. Also, we want to keep munitions, military financing, strategic cooperation and dialogue, and joint planning,” with the US, he said.

Other positive aspects of working closely with the US include, “We even had two joint operations fighting together this past year. That had never happened before.”

In the past, we had “American diplomatic support, vetoes for an umbrella from anti-Israel resolutions at the UNSC, and support for various strategic capabilities we supposedly have.”

There is “American support for the peace process; developing Israeli relations and normalization with other countries.”

“The bombs and ammunition are really the last point of our dependence,” said Freilich.

He said the problem is only when American and Israeli interests diverge.

“It’s not a question of weapons independence. We didn’t preemptively strike before the Yom Kippur War or against Iran’s nuclear program [at least until now] because we were afraid about the American reaction. There are 101 things we don’t do because of American considerations. There’s a price to be paid for being a small embattled country with limited resources,” he argued.

“No country can live alone today. England and Germany” even have security dependencies on the US – “there are no free lunches.”

He said that mostly the debate is about populist politics, while acknowledging, “in some cases if someone won’t sell us unique capabilities; we might need certain specifics which the US defense industry is not suited for. There could also be better inventory management. Munitions are very tight worldwide, but beyond that it’s a straw man, a façade.”

Selling weapons in a difficult market

Former IDF deputy chief Maj. Gen. Uzi Dayan also believed there were limits to how independent Israel could get in weapons, but was more positive about it generally than Freilich.

“Some say we need more independent manufacturing capabilities, some say a larger inventory – these are different things,” said Dayan, adding, “I am not in favor of building our own planes.”

“I don’t think Israel can build all the weapons. We could make some big weapons, but not everyone wants to buy planes with a Jewish star on them. It will be hard to manufacture expensive items that are one of a kind.”

“No one bought the Israeli-made Merkava tank. They did not want to be known as buying from Israel and with some weapons that cannot be hidden…We need to understand our economies of scale limit,” he added.

To manufacture all weapons, Israel would “also need to manufacture chips – it’s just not worth it.”

Still, he countered that, “It is not good to buy everything from the market. You do  need to have areas of special expertise. Some specialize in food. There are no Italian-made weapons,” but there are Israeli-made weapons.

He also put a special emphasis on Israel increasing its weapons inventory, saying, “There had been inventory. Weapons Israel was storing for NATO and CENTCOM. We were harmed for our own war when lots of it went to Ukraine. We couldn’t say ‘no.’”

“Where we need some of the same items the US and other countries we need, we could be producing more of our own,” he said,

“Taking things which are harder to transfer, such as field hospitals. I would get more prepositioning. Israel needs more inventory. I was IDF Strategy Command Chief. We thought about scenarios of a 40-60 day war, but if you need more weaponry than that, then what will you do for artillery?” he asked.

The former IDF deputy chief stated, “With the Trump administration, there will be adjustments about the aid we receive. We want more quantity-wise and want the weapons to be more ensured. Our relationship with the US defense industry promises certain things, but some items are blocked from being sold to Israel. There will be a new deal.”

“We need to spread out our sales and purchases – it is not all in one package. We need to create commercial defense relations with more countries,” so as to be less reliant on the US he argued.

Also, he said, “Certain items are very important to self-manufacture. And there is co-production in the US, so they won’t harm Iron Dome and other such things.”

“We need an alliance for manufacturing, assembly lines, we need to own and possess more raw materials needed for manufacturing certain items,” he added.

An INSS post critiquing the Nagel report said that “increasing Israel’s munitions independence and fortifying and moving critical infrastructure underground…are all important security concerns. However, without a well-founded assessment of available resources and expenditures, and without clear guidelines for prioritization, they remain little more than a ‘wish list’ that does not necessarily align with economic realities.”

Put differently, the INSS post demanded that Nagel or someone explain where the new additional funds will come from for buying and manufacturing more expensive weapons, and what will be given up to do so.

On January 7, the Defense Ministry signed two major agreements with Elbit Systems, totaling approximately NIS 1 billion, as part of a strategic effort to strengthen the IDF’s self-sufficiency and operational readiness both in munitions and raw materials. 

There have been no disclosures about how this would impact the defense or broader national budget and to what extent these changes are sufficient or are more likely only a first installment toward greater weapons independence.