Catastrophe is one false move away in northern Israel

So what? Israel has been locked in a violent dance with Hezbollah in Lebanon since 7 October. But the tightrope – on which each side aims to set a deterrent while avoiding all-out war – is becoming increasingly difficult to walk.  

“One rash move, one miscalculation could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border and frankly, beyond imagination,” Antonio Guterres, the UN chief, said on Friday. “The world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”

What’s new? Daily airstrikes on both sides have mostly obeyed a recognised framework to avoid total war: focus on military targets. 

So far, Israel has killed around 400 Hezbollah operatives as well as 73 civilians, three journalists and about 20 medics. Twenty-seven people have been killed in Israel. On 11 June Israel killed Taleb Abdallah, a senior Hezbollah commander. 

The major shift in recent days has come in the form of psychological warfare:

• Last Tuesday Hezbollah released a nine-minute video showing a drone flying over the Israeli port city Haifa, identifying military targets. It safely returned to Lebanon, evading Israeli air defences.
• Israel, which has for months been discussing a military operation in Lebanon if diplomatic solutions fail, said that it had approved an “operational plan” in southern Lebanon. Officials have previously threatened to return Lebanon to the Stone Age.
• In response, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said no part of Israel would be spared in the event of a full war. 
• Nasrallah then warned that the war could expand to Cyprus if it allowed Israel to use its military bases. 
• Another video released by Hezbollah over the weekend showed the coordinates of a number of strategic positions across Israel. Hezbollah will fight “without restraint, without rules, without limits,” Nasrallah said.  

The US has reportedly promised Israel its full support – short of putting American boots on the ground – if the conflict with Hezbollah does descend into all-out war. 

Over the past eight months Hezbollah, backed by Iran and one of the world’s best-armed non-state groups, has slowly unveiled an updated arsenal alongside promises that more surprises are being kept under wraps. Their attacks on Israel have also grown more complex. 

High stakes. It has become increasingly clear over the past eight months that both sides understand that starting a war could be akin to pressing self-destruct. 

• “Despite escalating tensions, Hezbollah is unlikely to seek all-out war with Israel, especially given Israel’s demonstrated ability to target Hezbollah officers in southern Lebanon, which highlights Hezbollah’s vulnerability,” said Lina Khatib, director of the Soas Middle East Institute. “Conversely, Israel is likely to avoid a two-front war while its military objectives in Gaza remain unachieved.”
• Israel, still struggling to claim victory against Hamas in Gaza, knows from previous wars the challenges it faces against Hezbollah: a better armed, larger, more disciplined force. 
• In turn, Hezbollah knows how much devastation Israeli air power can wreak in a short time. 

But… all-out war in Lebanon would inevitably lead to the US being drawn deeper into the conflict and Iran’s other proxies in the region – from Iraq to Syria and Yemen – escalating their own attacks in support of Hamas. Not to mention the risk of a direct conflict between the US and Iran.

For now, US military support remains firmly in place, despite claims by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington has been withholding weapons (the US says it has only held up one shipment of 2,000-lb bombs because of concerns about their use in Gaza).

What’s more… In Beirut, where citizens are long used to living in the war’s shadow, life goes on: embassies are not evacuating, people are not fleeing and the beaches are full. But in some households the bags are packed again, just in case.

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