China’s rise and ongoing global conflicts

The rumble of conflicts is growing louder from Southeast Asia to Africa, highlighting the complex geopolitics that challenge the world’s aging industrial nations.

While the coming changes in the White House and the dismal end of an ineffective German government have garnered significant attention from the media, far more consequential shifts in the global order are taking place. These developments are likely to have a lasting impact that surpasses the immediate political dramas unfolding in Washington and Berlin.

China and the conflicts in Asia

China’s claims in the South China Sea, represented by its infamous “nine-dash line,” violate international maritime law, as established by the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration. The tribunal concluded that China’s claims lack legal standing under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Beijing’s arbitrary delineation infringes on the rights of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, all of which are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Regular incidents occur in these overlapping areas, highlighting ongoing tensions and conflicts over fishing rights and resource exploitation.

Indonesia, the largest member of ASEAN, has recently signed an agreement with Beijing regarding joint exploitation in overlapping maritime areas. This development can be seen as a partial recognition of China’s maritime claims, which has shocked other Southeast Asian nations. While the interests of Vietnam and the Philippines are significantly affected by China’s territorial assertions, Indonesia’s own interests are the least harmed by these encroachments.

This agreement represents a significant success for Beijing. However, it highlights a complex dilemma for ASEAN countries: While most of them view China as a threat to their self-determination and sovereignty, they also rely heavily on it as their most important trading partner.

Beijing’s diplomatic strategy, as evidenced at the recent BRICS summit, seeks to establish neutral ground with key regional players. As he did prior to concluding the agreement with Indonesia, Chinese President Xi Jinping engaged in conciliatory discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding their countries’ disputed border in the Himalayas. Together, these moves mean that China, the world’s second-largest nation by population, has begun to normalize relations with both the largest one, India, and the fourth-largest, Indonesia.

Bitter prospects for Ukraine

Over in Europe, it appears that Ukraine may soon be forced to make territorial concessions to bring an end to the war. Regardless of who occupies the White House, support for Kyiv has diminished, and a new U.S. administration could accelerate this trend. This troubling development serves as ominous writing on the wall for Europe, akin to the biblical phrase mene tekel, signaling the need for urgent recognition of the situation. Despite significant losses, Moscow may consider the conflict a success, potentially emboldening further territorial ambitions. 

The United States and Europe inadvertently weaken their position while bolstering China’s and Russia’s stances.

What we are watching can be described as an escalating conflict between the old, industrialized world and the former communist states, assisted by the regime in Iran. 

North Korea is also involved in the ongoing conflict. Russia has been receiving its support primarily in the form of ammunition, but recently, it has also begun to deploy North Korean troops. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is flexing its military muscle by launching long-range missiles across Japan into the Pacific.

Deadly violence in Africa and the Middle East

Meanwhile, Qatar has officially suspended its mediation efforts in the Gaza conflict, citing frustration with both Israel’s and Hamas’s unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations. This decision represents a significant shift in Qatar’s position, as it has also expelled the Hamas political office from its territory. Until recently, Qatar played an important role in facilitating dialogue and was notably supportive of Hamas. The Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that it would only resume mediation if both parties demonstrated a genuine commitment to constructive engagement.

Hamas and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen are central to Iran’s pursuit of hegemony in the Middle East. The regime in Tehran aims to prevent any rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of which challenge its ambitions. Consequently, Iran will go to great lengths to obstruct any compromises by Hamas. For the ayatollahs, the slaughter must go on.

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The situation in sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel also demands urgent attention. The continent is currently home to some of the world’s deadliest conflicts, with staggering levels of human suffering in the affected regions.

Need for an improved strategy

What we are watching can be described as an escalating conflict between the old, industrialized world and the former communist states, partially rebranded as nationalistic, and assisted by the regime in Iran. 

Most of the global population – particularly in Latin America, Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and parts of the Middle East – feels uneasy about both sides in this conflict. Many view the still-surviving remnants of the “rules-based world order,” often infused with European and American values, as “neocolonialist.” This narrative is effectively leveraged by Beijing and Moscow. 

By insisting on adherence to what they consider “universal principles” as a basis for collaboration, the United States and Europe inadvertently weaken their position while bolstering China’s and Russia’s stances. At the same time, both Atlantic partners are keen to avoid deeper dependency on China.

Europe and the U.S. must learn from past mistakes, shedding their moral arrogance. It is time to craft wise, pragmatic policies that acknowledge the complexities of today’s multipolar world and effectively confront aggression against free and freedom-seeking societies. The stakes are high, and the time to act effectively is short.