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Talks that began today in Doha, on agreeing a cease-fire in Gaza, follow intense diplomatic efforts by the US and regional governments to persuade key players in the conflict to step back from the brink of all-out war. Pezeshkian had scarcely taken office before his stated goal of de-escalating tensions and re-engaging with the West — underscored this week by his nomination of Abbas Araqchi as foreign minister, an architect of the 2015 nuclear deal — faced an immediate challenge. Doing nothing risks making Iran appear weak. Equally, yielding to hard-line pressure to avenge the humiliation of Haniyeh’s death in the Iranian capital risks amplifying the regional conflict, derailing the Gaza peace plan and further isolating Tehran. Much also depends on how the talks, which Hamas is not even attending, unfold. Below, Energy Intelligence examines possible scenarios.
Largely Symbolic Response Limits Escalation
The killing of the top Hamas official on Jul. 31 — widely blamed on but denied by Israel — was a “major slap in the face” for the Iranians, as well as a breach of international law, says regional security expert Andreas Krieg, at King’s College London. “So, Iran needs to respond to make it very clear that this is unacceptable behavior,” he adds. But the Jul. 31 attack was not as serious as the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April that killed senior Revolutionary Guard officers, in terms of its strategic impact on the “Axis of Resistance” or Iran’s operations in the region, Krieg argues. That means Tehran is unlikely to opt for a similarly severe response to what followed the attack in Syria — when it fired over 300 drones and missiles in what was the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil — despite signs of growing missile mobilization activity. It would also be extremely difficult for Iran to reciprocate by killing a senior Israeli official.
Simply by delaying its response and concealing its intentions, some analysts say Iran has raised the pressure on Israel. The country has been on high alert since last month’s assassinations. And Israel’s Western allies may increasingly see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government — rather than Tehran — as responsible for pushing the region to the brink. Whether that prompts Netanyahu to make fresh concessions in peace talks he has continually obstructed is far from clear. But a serious commitment by Israel to possibly the last chance of a deal with Hamas may be the only way to avert an Iranian strike, or to persuade Iran to strike in a largely symbolic manner, whether by attacking soft Israeli targets at home or abroad, perhaps at a later date.
Progress in the Gaza peace talks could also be an offramp for Hezbollah, whose attacks on Israel are explicitly framed in the context of supporting the Palestinians. But the killing of Shukur was a bigger blow to the Lebanese group than Haniyeh’s death was to Iran, which some believe makes a Hezbollah response more likely. “A lot hinges on what happens over the next three days in Doha. If it becomes clear that Israel is pulling out, delaying, obstructing, undermining the efforts, I think Hezbollah will strike,” says Krieg.
Moderate Escalation or All-Out War
Iran has repeatedly said it doesn’t want a wider war, and it is certainly hard to see how it could afford one, given the Islamic republic’s serious economic difficulties and governing challenges. But there is also palpable anger in Tehran at the perceived hypocrisy of Western leaders, with Pezeshkian himself dismissing Monday’s joint UK-French-German statement calling on Iran to refrain from retaliatory strikes. And for some regime hard-liners, fears of Iran’s deterrence eroding if it fails to act firmly against Israel will outweigh other considerations.
Escalatory scenarios include a barrage of Iranian missiles and rockets bigger than the one launched in April. Civilian or military casualties would be an obvious trigger for spiraling retaliatory action by Israel. Iran hitting, by accident or design, US military assets or personnel being deployed to the region to help protect Israel likewise raises the prospect of US retaliatory strikes on Iran.
A major danger, too, is that Hezbollah joins in and helps Iran overwhelm Israel’s — and the US’ — defenses, or simply launches a barrage of its own, striking further south than it has done so far and prompting Israel to launch another long-feared invasion of Lebanon. Such an outcome would be disastrous for both countries, likely triggering a surge in attacks by other Axis of Resistance members on strategic targets, including US bases in Iraq and Syria, where more than a dozen US troops have already been injured in renewed missile and drone strikes this month. US envoy to Lebanon Amos Hochstein, during a visit to Beirut on Wednesday, warned of escalating tensions with Israel easily getting out of control.
Narrow Path to Peace
There are good reasons to be skeptical about Netanyahu’s wish to see the talks succeed, which could bring down his coalition and end his political career. The New York Times reported this week that he had added new conditions to Israel’s demands, including that Israeli forces should remain in control of Gaza’s southern border, and being less flexible about allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza when the fighting stops. Likewise, it is easy to doubt that Iran will show restraint, with its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei having promised a “harsh punishment” to avenge Haniyeh’s death.
But after his surprise victory last month, Pezeshkian appears to have Khamenei’s backing to start reducing Iran’s international isolation. That could also help repair the regime’s tarnished image at home, while Tehran is no doubt aware that a wider Mideast war could assist Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s re-election bid and unleash another “maximum pressure” sanctions drive. “Iran could score a lot of points by not retaliating against Israel,” says Krieg. “So, if there is a momentum now, with Iran saying ‘we can be the greater power, we can show that we’re more in control, and we can actually bring the war in Gaza to an end,’ then they might hold off.”