Ex-NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: “Lack of Military Support Made It Easier for Russia to Invade”

DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Stoltenberg, you served as secretary general of NATO for almost 10 years, a period that was among the most turbulent in the alliance’s history. Do you miss your daily NATO morning briefings with all the bad news about war and conflict?

Jens Stoltenberg: It was a great privilege to serve NATO, but it was also the right time to step down and hand over responsibilities to Mark Rutte. He will be an excellent secretary general. I will always miss the intensity and the importance of being at the helm of NATO. But now it’s time to start another chapter as chairman of the Munich Security Conference, which I am very much looking forward to.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you read with your morning coffee now in place of intelligence reports and military briefings?

Stoltenberg: Actually, I am not reading, I am writing. I am using my time to work on a book about my 10 years in office, which I hope will be published next fall. These years were such a pivotal time for our security. We’ve seen so many dramatic events: the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and of course the very difficult withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was such an intensive time, working with different U.S. presidents and other leaders, including from Germany.

DER SPIEGEL: What was the most difficult moment during your time as NATO general secretary?

Stoltenberg: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The attack wasn’t a surprise. We knew in advance that the Russians were going to invade, and we monitored the preparations. But it was, of course, shocking to see the full-scale military invasion, to see all that suffering and the damage in Ukraine. It was a painful moment for all of us and one I’ll never forget.

DER SPIEGEL: Are we currently living in the most dangerous times since World War II?

Stoltenberg: We are living in a more unpredictable and unstable world. During the Cold War, we had a confrontation with the Soviet Union; we had troops ready at the borders and nuclear weapons deployed on both sides of the Iron Curtain. But there was some level of predictability, because neither side wanted to risk a hot war. Now, we have so many challenges at the same time. We are experiencing a full-scale war in Europe and facing increased global rivalry, for example with China – a country which is scaling up its military forces at an unprecedented speed. We are living with the constant threat of cyber terrorist attacks. This is an uncertain world.

DER SPIEGEL: You haven’t mentioned the war in the Middle East, where Israel is fighting against the terror groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

Stoltenberg: NATO has never been directly involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but that doesn’t mean that we’re not concerned about the escalation there. NATO is the answer to many problems around the world, but not to all problems.

“The main problem here is a long-standing one: The Palestinians do not have a state.”

DER SPIEGEL: Yet the conflict is taking place on the alliance’s southern flank. It must be a NATO concern as well.

Stoltenberg: The current escalation is a real threat, because there is always a risk of a wider regional war. I fully support the attempts of some NATO members like the U.S. or Germany to de-escalate and try to find a political solution. We need such a solution. The main problem here is a long-standing one: The Palestinians do not have a state. I understand all the difficulties involved in establishing a two-state solution, but I think what has happened since the horrific terrorist attack on October 7 against Israel has underscored the need for the two-state solution.

DER SPIEGEL: You mentioned the shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Did NATO and its member-states underestimate Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin?

Stoltenberg: All of us have seen the changes in Russia over the years. Putin became more and more aggressive. After the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, we started the biggest reinforcement of our collective defenses, we ramped up defense investments and we implemented the spending goal of 2 percent of GDP for all members. For the first time since the Cold War, we stationed combat troops at the alliance’s eastern border. We did not close our eyes.

DER SPIEGEL: You took office in October 2014, not long after the Russian annexation of Crimea that spring. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in particular, wanted you to build bridges with Russia. When did you realize that Merkel’s strategy was misguided?

“We do not invest in our military strength to wage war, but to prevent war.”

Stoltenberg: I still believe this strategy was the right approach. It was the right thing to try to build a better relationship with Russia after the end of the Cold War. And even after the Russian annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in the Donbas region, the meetings of the NATO-Russia Council continued. And we met as late as January 2022. Not because we had any illusions about Russia, but because we had to manage what has become a very difficult relationship with our neighbor. Today, we at least need to prevent any miscalculation or misunderstanding in Moscow.

DER SPIEGEL: You said in a recent interview with the Financial Times that it was a mistake not to have begun arming Ukraine earlier, and that doing so could maybe even have prevented the invasion. There was concern at the time of provoking Russia.

Stoltenberg: It’s easy to say in hindsight what we should have done. Today, I believe that the lack of military support for Ukraine made it easier for Russia to invade. This must be a lesson for the future, for all NATO allies. We do not invest in our military strength to wage war, but to prevent war. This is not to provoke Russia, but to deter it. Otherwise, no one, not only Russia, will take us seriously.

DER SPIEGEL: At the time, even just providing arms to Ukraine was considered to be a red line. What were the reasons for that?

Stoltenberg: A few allies did provide some military support, but in hindsight, it was not enough. We should all acknowledge that today. We thought that a, so to speak, more moderate approach was better. There was a lack of understanding of how urgent it was to provide military support and money to build a powerful Ukrainian army in order to prevent the Russian invasion. That was a mistake.

DER SPIEGEL: Today there is another red line: The Ukrainians are not allowed to attack targets deep inside Russia with weapons provided by Western allies.

Stoltenberg: These are difficult considerations, and I think it is appropriate that we have consultations and discussions among our allies. But we need to remember that this is a brutal war, a blatant violation of international law, an attempt to seize control of Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine has the right to self-defense. This includes the right to strike legitimate military targets within Russian territory. We should not be fooled by the threats of Russia. Remember, Moscow said from the beginning that it would be unacceptable if Western countries provided weapons. But we did provide weapons. We must not stop our support because of Russian threats.

“I don’t believe that we can change Putin’s mind. But we can change his calculus by supporting Ukraine.”

DER SPIEGEL: Even as you called for the strengthening of NATO’s military power, you consistently said you would be willing to talk to Putin. Would now be an appropriate moment for such talks?

Stoltenberg: Only Ukraine can decide when the moment for meaningful talks or even peace negotiations has come and what might constitute acceptable conditions. We all want this war to end. But an end to the war will not necessarily bring peace. Occupation is not peace. The challenge is to end the war in a way in which Ukraine survives as a sovereign and independent nation. The only way to reach such a deal is to convince Putin that he will not achieve his goals on the battlefield. And to get there, we need to boost our support for Ukraine. I have no illusions; I don’t believe that we can change Putin’s mind. But we can change his calculus by supporting Ukraine.

DER SPIEGEL: Over the last 10 years, Germany has been criticized harshly for not spending enough on defense. How do you see it?

Stoltenberg: Germany is an important ally. One must see things a bit more realistically. NATO agreed in 2014 that all allies would spend an amount equivalent to 2 percent of their GDPs on defense. Germany has now reached that goal. Berlin has really stepped up and that makes a huge difference. A good example is the fully equipped brigade which will be stationed in Lithuania. This is a proof of strong commitment and a great example of leadership.

DER SPIEGEL: Starting in spring 2025, you will be the chairman of the Munich Security Conference. What draws you to this role after your long political career?

Stoltenberg: The Munich Security Conference is one of the most important gatherings worldwide, a unique forum for decision makers to meet and debate issues of international security. As secretary general, I have attended every single conference for the past 10 years. There are the public debates on stage, but perhaps even more important is the opportunity for discrete background talks. When the opportunity presented itself to lead this forum, I did not hesitate. It is a great honor. As chairman, I would like to contribute to the MSC’s mission of “peace through dialogue.”

DER SPIEGEL: The conference has also always been an opportunity for secret dialogue with adversaries like Russia or Iran. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though, Munich has increasingly seemed like a gathering of like-minded countries. Do you intend to change that?

Stoltenberg: I will assume the chairmanship of the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, so I am not yet able to make any specific comments on exactly who should be invited or not. I believe, however, that the conference is important because it is a platform which reaches out to many different countries, even if some of them see each other as adversaries or enemies. While the Munich Security Conference has trans-Atlantic roots, we also need to understand that we live in a global world and that we need a global perspective. That is why the Munich Security Conference will remain a platform for diverse voices, and I will continue to reach out to the countries of the so-called Global South.

DER SPIEGEL: During your time at NATO, you were one of the rare leaders who got along quite well with U.S. President Donald Trump. Can you reveal your secret?

Stoltenberg: I always tried to focus on my job as secretary general. That job is to take seriously the concerns of all allies. President Trump was the elected leader of NATO’s largest member state. Like other presidents before him, he raised his concerns that burden-sharing in the alliance was not fairly distributed. The tone might have been surprisingly harsh at times, but the point was legitimate. My job was to remain calm. The good news is that this process has really changed us. All allies have stepped up their investments and their commitment, which is good for all of us.