Iran also fired missiles at a U.S. airbase in Qatar earlier in the day, describing the attack as a “devastating and powerful” response. U.S. officials reported no injuries or deaths in the attack that Iran had warned was coming.
As military commanders continue to assess the total damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities from the weekend attack, U.S. officials say they are still unsure of the location of Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile.
We spoke with former CIA Director General David Petraeus (Ret.) about the military mission that seems to have brought a change in behavior from Tehran and about the priority intelligence requirement for the U.S. Intelligence community. Our interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
General David Petraeus (Ret.)
General David Petraeus served more than 37 years in the U.S. military with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the Multi-National Force-Iraq during the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He is a partner in the KKR global investment firm and chairs the firm’s global institute.
The Cipher Brief: The U.S. had the element of surprise in the weekend bombing raid. How important was that?
Gen. Petraeus:Surprise is always a tremendous advantage if it can be achieved, and it does appear that this was the case here. There certainly was no air defense fire. Certainly, no aircraft from Iran tried to oppose those that were flying through their airspace. And they even hit two of the sites with submarine-launched ballistic missiles. 25 or so of those were used against the first two sites at Isfahan and Natanz, Natanz being the main enrichment site, of course, that was already hit by the Israelis. A very impressive operation, without question. And again, absolutely no opposition from the ground or from the air.
All of this was done in 25 minutes from entering the airspace to leaving it, having flown all the way from the middle part of the United States, seven apparently B-2 bombers, each carrying two of the massive ordnance penetrators, those 30,000 pound mountain busters, really, bunker buster doesn’t quite do it justice, with 5,000 pounds of explosive after they’ve already burrowed through rock or concrete or what have you.
There are questions, however, after all of this, and I think we have to be very cognizant of them, the most significant is really how much damage actually was done. And you don’t know until the BDA – the bomb damage assessment – process has been concluded and intelligence has determined whether or not the facilities were completely destroyed with all of the centrifuges and with all of the highly enriched uranium that was stockpiled at these different sites. Did some of it get moved in the days before? Did some of the centrifuges as well as the HEU get displaced? Is there a hidden site? There have been rumors about that, as you know, I’m sure.
And so how much of the nuclear enterprise is left at this point? And here, we would talk just not about the enriched uranium, the highly enriched uranium – the IAEA said they saw some particles that were enriched to as high as 83%, recently noting that 90%-plus is weapons grade – how many centrifuges are left? Are they operational? Could they enrich the HEU, further to weapons grade? And do they have the expertise left to do all of this, noting that I think it’s approaching two dozen of the leading nuclear scientists have now been killed by Israel.
Those are some of the very significant questions that remain to be answered. But without question, this was a very impressive operation carried out by over 125 aircraft, if you count all of the refueling aircraft, you count the F-22 stealth fighters, the F-35 stealth fighter bombers and so forth that escorted them through the airspace, the submarines, the seven B-2 bombers plus jammers, air surveillance, undoubtedly drone surveillance, this was a well-orchestrated effort that shows our men and women in uniform really at their very best.
The Cipher Brief: Talk to us a little bit about how the bomb damage assessement – the BDA – works. I’m assuming when they’re assessing the damage from this bombing, they’re using a lot of overhead images. You served as director of the CIA. I would assume there would be some human intelligence from sources on the ground that would be woven into that. What are the components of the damage assessment? How does it work?
Gen. Petraeus: Every element of intelligence will be employed in this case. Of course, it will include various forms of imagery intelligence. There will be various forms of signals intelligence if they can get it, cyber intelligence; and as you noted, human intelligence. Measurement and Signals, MASINT, is another whole element; even open-source intelligence, if it can be mined and you can find something. There may be people taking photos of this and we’ve seen repeatedly how useful cell phone videos can be in just seeing what took place. So, the bottom line is that every element, every type of intelligence that can be gathered, will be gathered. That’s the science and then the art, of course, is in the fusion of all of this.
The Cipher Brief: You actually oversaw exercises around this very scenario while you were in Command. I’m wondering if you can talk us through some of the challenges that the U.S. military could have run into as part of this operation. How difficult is an operation like this to actually pull off?
Gen. Petraeus: An operation like this is difficult even without an enemy. 125 aircraft engaged in this – it’s a real minuet. Everything is timed out. The fact that it flew from the middle part of the United States all the way across the ocean, across many of the Gulf states and so forth from the Mediterranean to get to Iran and then had to link-up with the F-22s and the F-35s that were presumably already in bases around the region. There are jammers, electronic warfare aircraft. There are aircraft that are performing surveillance tasks, both air surveillance and then others that undoubtedly were looking at the actual targets themselves before and after.
This was a very complicated operation even without any enemy. We did actually do a rehearsal of a plan to destroy Iran’s entire nuclear program. This operation hit just three sites, of course. The rehearsal was formulated after the September 2009 release of information by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Fordow existed. This was known in intelligence circles prior to that but that was a catalyst for the development of a plan to destroy the entire program, and the means for retaliation and the air and ballistic missile defenses and all the rest of this.
That was an enormous plan, even bigger than what was carried out over the weekend. We did rehearse that one time in the continental United States. This is all publicly known. And that meant that we flew laps of the U.S. with the B-2 bombers, given how far their route would be if they took off from the U.S., as appears to be the case in this particular situation. And even then, it was very challenging.
The Cipher Brief: It’s fascinating. What can you tell us in terms of what would it take to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program?
Gen. Petraeus:A lot more than this, because there are many other sites. To be very clear about it, all you have to do is look at the various maps of what the Israelis have taken out over the past nine days or so, and you’ll see what it was that we were envisioning destroying. Now, some of those are new or more developed than they were back at that time. The air ballistic missile defenses are much more capable or were much more capable until Israel destroyed them than what we faced at that time. So, obviously the situation has evolved, but it was a very substantial operation, and very likely would not have been achievable within a single sortie of aircraft, however large. And there would’ve been a lot of follow-up operations required to ensure that you got everything. And then also to go after what they could have used to retaliate against energy infrastructure, freedom of navigation in the Gulf, our bases and forces and so forth.
The Cipher Brief: There are fears that Iran may mine the Strait of Hormuz. Once the military operation is over, you mentioned that there are rumors that there may be a hidden site, and one would assume that the intelligence component to this goes into overdrive now. What can you tell us about what is likely happening on the intelligence side?
Gen. Petraeus:I’m sure that the intelligence side has been in overdrive for weeks, if not months, as this has all been contemplated. That’s their job. And of course, sharing with the Israelis and taking what they are getting, because their sources and methods and years of experience and expertise are really unmatched. But now there is a crucial task. The priority intelligence requirement is to identify whether all of the highly enriched uranium has been destroyed, whether all of the centrifuges have been destroyed, and what other human expertise is still alive that could restart a program or continue what they were doing with whatever is left at this point in time.
That is a huge, huge question. I’m not sure that at the end of the day that they’ll be able to answer that with complete certainty. That has always been a challenge.
The Cipher Brief: You mentioned these aren’t really bunker buster bombs, they’re mountain buster bombs. How likely do you think it would be if these bombs were successfully dropped in the right place, which it looks like they were – how would they work?
Gen. Petraeus:No other country has this 30,000lb bomb. No other country has an aircraft that can carry this size bomb. What you would typically do is launch one and try to see what the effect was, and others are going to follow. The same is true of Natanz. You have to burrow down through the subterranean chambers to get to the very bottom, which is where the so-called mission spaces were at Natanz. The Israelis did do that already, and I suspect that the combination of the submarine-launched ballistic missiles and MOPs used there will have finished that off.
With respect to Fordow, the bomb will penetrate quite a distance. There’s plenty out there in publicly available information that shows how far; it depends though on the particular rock, how dense it is, or concrete or what have you. But eventually it burrows all the way down, and then it literally blows up the 5,000 pounds of explosive that are in the warhead portion of the bomb. And again, if you need to, you just pile drive your way all the way down into the center of that structure.
We’ll see what it is that our various imagery intelligence and other forms of intelligence can tell us about how successful this was. There are concerns about photos online, showing trucks outside Fordow in the days leading up to this attack. It’s hard to say how old they were and what was really was going on with them. But that does inject a bit of uncertainty into whether or not all of the HEU was still there, and whether all of the centrifuges were still there. That’s going to be a key question for the intelligence community.
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