KHARKIV, UKRAINE – MARCH 7: Women sit on the bench in front of damaged residential building after … [+] Russian missile attack on March 7, 2025 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Dmytro Chubenko, a spokesman for the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office, reported that the Russians used an Iskander-M ballistic missile for the attack. A three-story and two nine-story buildings were damaged. (Photo by Liubov Yemets/Gwara Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 1,103
The Halt of U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine.
Three days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington and his Oval Office clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. suspended all military aid to Ukraine, including the support authorized under President Joe Biden’s administration. The suspension includes American intelligence supplied to Ukraine. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson stated that the halt in U.S. military aid to Ukraine is linked to events at the White House on February 28 and would be only temporary.
The suspension of U.S. military aid marks a blow to Ukraine’s defense capabilities, particularly its air defense systems, which are vital in countering Russia’s missile threats. The primary concern centers on the potential depletion of U.S.-made Patriot missile defense systems. Without further supply from the U.S., Kyiv’s stocks of Patriot missiles might run out within several weeks. European systems such as NASAMS and IRIS-T, although less expensive and effective against drones and cruise missiles, are in limited supply and nearly useless in countering advanced ballistic missiles and other sophisticated Russian threats.
Beyond air defense, Ukraine faces the risk of losing critical communications and intelligence capabilities with the potential disruption of Elon Musk’s Starlink services. Since the onset of the war, Ukrainian troops have been using Starlink as a primary tool for secure communication on the front lines. Although Musk previously threatened to halt Starlink operations in Ukraine, no such action was taken. The suspension of American aid, however, forces Ukraine to explore European replacements.
The loss of U.S. satellite reconnaissance and intelligence likely will significantly hinder Ukraine’s ability to track Russian ballistic missile launches. In addition, Ukraine has relied on U.S. intelligence data for conducting some of its precise strikes on Russian troop concentrations in occupied territories.
The broader concern for Kyiv lies in maintaining its long-term ability to conduct military operations. While domestic production of weapons covers nearly 30% of Ukraine’s military needs, a prolonged halt in U.S. aid would pose considerable risks for the country in the final phase of the war. As Russia accelerates its missile production and draws support from Iran and North Korea, Ukraine’s ability to keep pace in this high-stakes race will now depend on European backing. In its latest survey of the war, the Institute for the Study of War foresees no immediate threat of a Ukrainian collapse on the front lines but emphasizes that no adequate substitutes exist in either quality or quantity for much of America’s aid.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia on March 12 to discuss a potential ceasefire in the ongoing war with Russia. The high-level summit will be the first formal meeting between the two nations since the meeting in Washington. The session is likely to address establishing an initial ceasefire and laying the groundwork for a Russian-Ukrainian peace process. White House envoy Steve Witkoff has claimed that the resumption of communication between the U.S. and Ukraine might reset relations.
Senior Trump officials have secretly met with Ukrainian political figures opposed to President Zelenskyy, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and ex-President Petro Poroshenko. The discussions revolved around the possibility of holding early presidential elections, which are currently postponed due to martial law. Critics of elections during the war argue that the process could destabilize Ukraine and benefit Russia.
Despite tensions with the U.S., recent polls conducted after the clash with Trump show that Zelenskyy remains the most popular candidate with a 44% approval rating, leaving Tymoshenko and Poroshenko far behind. Trump’s team reportedly has been pushing for Zelenskyy to step down, claiming that his leadership is weakening Ukraine’s position. The talks suggest that Trump is looking for a more cooperative leader open to compromise with Russia.
Russia’s Attacks on Ukraine
Russia has intensified its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, targeting civilian, energy, and gas infrastructure, and residential areas in Kharkiv, Ternopil, Odesa, and Chernihiv regions, damaging residential buildings, local hospitals, and other civilian facilities.
Dnipropetrovsk region. Late on the evening of March 5, Russian missile struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih. The attack damaged hotel, civilian infrastructure, killing four people and wounding more than 30.
Kherson region. Russian shelling on March 4 in Ukraine’s southern region killed a police officer and wounded five civilians.
Odesa region. A Russian drone attack in Ukraine’s southern port province on March 4 killed a 77-year-old man.
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 15.5%, marking the second consecutive hike in response to rising inflation. The institution’s inflation forecasts for 2024 have consistently fallen short, prompting the bank to shift from a gradual approach of rate cuts to a more decisive monetary policy.
Inflation in Ukraine surged to 12.9% in January, driven by an energy deficit exacerbated by Russian attacks, which drove up production costs for businesses across the country. Although the institution anticipates inflation to ease in the second half of the year, analysts remain skeptical of the forecast, arguing that the interest rate has a limited effect on the underlying causes of inflation.
By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks