President Joe Biden wasn’t amused by a central question surrounding this ceasefire deal.
“Is that a joke?” he said as he was asked which US president, he or Donald Trump, deserves credit for getting the ceasefire deal over the line. He couldn’t give Trump an ounce of credit.
It was an obvious question given that Trump had, hours earlier, claimed almost total credit for the ceasefire.
“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November…” he said in a social media statement.
Beyond the other central questions – whether the deal will hold and whether it can bring a lasting peace – it’s important to ask “why now”?
After all, the deal that’s now been agreed is pretty much word-for-word the same deal proposed by President Biden back in May last year. So what’s changed?
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Well, quite a lot. The picture on the ground across the Middle East has shifted considerably since last May. Iran’s regional influence has been decimated. Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been severely degraded. Assad in Syria is gone. To say the Iranian regime, which armed and funded Hamas, is on the back foot is an understatement.
Biden sought today to claim credit for that changed regional picture.
“It’s America’s support for Israel that helped them badly weaken Hamas and his backers and create the conditions for this deal,” he said.
It’s perhaps a little more nuanced than that. Israel engaged its forces in Lebanon against Hezbollah and killed its leader against American advice. The Assad regime collapse was not catalysed by America. But it is true that America had Israel’s back at every turn allowing it to defend itself and be capable of its own offensive attacks.
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So the remarkable reshaping of the region in the last few months put Israel in a strategically much stronger position. To pause fighting now is strategically more attractive than it was a few months ago. Domestic politics in Israel has also shifted with Netanyahu less beholden to his extreme right faction.
But it’s about much more than all that and this is where Trump played a critical role.
Firstly, Trump’s unpredictability should not be understated. What did he mean by “all hell will break loose” if the hostages were not released by the time of his inauguration? No one quite knew. It focused minds on all sides.
An empty threat? Maybe or maybe not. That’s Trump.
The Qataris, the Egyptians, the Israelis, Hamas, the Iranians all wondered what it could mean for them.
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Netanyahu, for one, had his mind focused. The Israeli prime minister didn’t need to dance to Biden’s tune.
He knew Biden would always have his back – the US president proved that by constantly allowing Netanyahu to cross the red lines set.
But Trump, for Netanyahu, is different.
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Netanyahu desperately wants a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia to happen. That deal is part of the Abraham Accords signed in Trump’s first term.
So Netanyahu needs Trump to help complete the accords and realise regional normalisation.
Trump is a dealmaker, not an ideologue. Netanyahu needs to dance to Trump’s tune to keep him on side and to realise the deals and the regional alignment he wants.
Both Biden and Trump should claim credit for this deal.
The unprecedented cooperation between the outgoing and incoming teams was critical. But it wouldn’t have happened at this particular point if Trump wasn’t about to enter the White House.