Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on July 31 signals the derailing of the ceasefire talks, albeit temporarily. Failing to protect its guest, Iran stands humiliated. The rhetoric of revenge is fading with the passage of time. Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have categorically warned both Iran and Israel against using their airspace to attack each other: projectiles entering sovereign airspace will be intercepted. Tehran’s military quagmire is further complicated; it either loses friends to attack an enemy or works out go-arounds. Iran can still use Iraqi, Syrian and Lebanese land and airspace to attack Israel, or it may disregard the option of a direct strike in favor of covert disruption. The possibilities are endless, cyberattacks being one of them.
As hectic backdoor diplomacy continues, Iran is negotiating concessions. Beneath the façade of rage, it is reportedly aspiring to undo a range of sanctions and soften Western positions on its nuclear program and other issues. Since Haniyeh’s murder, Tehran is part of the talks on Gaza and Palestine. Iran’s maximalist diplomacy may not deliver the desired results but does achieve the recognition it greatly seeks.
The Palestinian negotiator’s slaying brings forth another strategic gain for Iran: Yahya Sinwar’s elevation as the outfit’s leader. For the ease of targeting, Hamas is usually wrongly branded as an Iranian proxy militia. In fact, the Sunni militia is not monolithic. Sinwar and Khalil al-Hayya are aligned with Iran but Haniyeh was not and neither is Khalid Meshaal. By eliminating Haniyeh, Tel Aviv has effectively pushed the Palestinian armed entity into Tehran’s camp — Sinwar’s selection as the new leader is an act of defiance.
“Selecting the brother Yahya Sinwar from the heart of the besieged Gaza Strip — who is present on the frontlines with resistance fighters and between the children of his people, under the rubble, blockade, killings and starvation — reasserts that the goals the enemy is seeking by killing leaders have failed,” Hamas said in a statement.
Meshaal, the most recognized Hamas figure, favours severing ties with Iran and Hezbollah and supported the uprising against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Currently heading the office for the Palestinian diaspora, the 68-year-old is Haniyeh’s predecessor. Hailing from the West Bank and brought up in Kuwait, Meshaal could have led the Palestinian cause more effectively compared to the man convicted by the ICC along with Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant and living in a subterranean world. Sinwar has little outreach as well as rapport within Middle Eastern powerhouses. To Israel’s advantage, the prospects of Palestinian unity diminish ever more with Sinwar at the helm of Hamas.
Since October 7, 2023, hundreds of Israelis and over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed while nearly 2.3 million displaced Gazans are living under the fear of imminent death. A refugee from Khan Younis and longtime Hamas member, Sinwar has one thing in common with his nemesis Netanyahu who seeks a regional war: it is a do-or-die battle for him.
Though the United States, Qatar and Egypt expressed optimism for a ceasefire after a recent round of talks concluding on August 16, the dynamics have changed considerably as Hamas is not sitting at the negotiating table. Communication with its leadership in Gaza’s tunnels is particularly difficult. Except that Iran and Hezbollah have refrained from attacking Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh’s killing, there are no indications of hope from the conflict zone. It is worth noting that Iran links its restraint to achieving a ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu insists that Tel Aviv would manage the “Philadelphia Corridor” — the Israeli code name for a 17-kilometer strip of land connecting Gaza with Egypt — and control movements between southern and northern Gaza by installing checkpoints. President Joe Biden needs a breakthrough or prospects of one ahead of the Democratic Convention concluding on August 22. In all likelihood, Netanyahu or Sinwar will quash any deal after an initial agreement.
Supposing the Doha talks fail again, Iran takes revenge, most likely symbolically by triggering an Israeli counterattack. A few hundred deaths later, Israel and Hamas would be pressed into holding talks again. Yahya Sinwar may appoint like-minded Hayya as his emissary, sidelining Meshaal again. The outcomes of such talks remain impossible to predict. Since the conflict started, Sinwar on the Palestinian side has torpedoed the possibility of a ceasefire as has Netanyahu.
If the fighting continues or a ceasefire comes into force, Hamas is confronted with bigger challenges. Having lost its founder and spiritual leader, Ahmed Yassin, co-founder Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, and military commanders Salah Shehadeh, Salah al-Arouri and quite a few others, the outfit continued to thrive. However, the ongoing campaign of targeted killings that claimed Marwan Issa and now top negotiator Haniyeh has left Hamas ever more vulnerable. Losses on the ground too are heavy, as Israel claims to have slayed six senior brigade commanders and more than 20 battalion commanders. Can it continue to regenerate its severed limbs like a starfish?
After losing 2% of its population in 10 months, Hamas’ popularity in Gaza might be sinking. Gazans were used as fodder in a war triggered by the October 7 attack which they knew nothing of. The militia repeatedly vowed that no death toll is enough to deter them, a position which is not shared by all Palestinians. As a result, the people of Gaza remain trapped in an endless cycle of suffering which only intensified in 2007 when Hamas gained power.
If Hamas is at a crossroads for survival so is Israel, with the option of either being dominated by belligerent extremists or accepting the harsh ground realities.
Opinions in this article reflect the writer’s point of view, not necessarily the view of Rasanah
Naveed Ahmad
Research Fellow (Strategic Affairs)