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The possibility that Hamas could be removed from its base in Qatar has raised pressure on the Iran-backed group as the US prepares for the transition to the administration of Donald Trump, who is seen as particularly pro-Israeli. But no one is betting that Hamas will soon be finished, having dominated Gaza and its society for almost two decades.
Qatar, whose interlocutor roles underpin its international stature, has dismissed but did not deny reports that it has asked senior Hamas figure Khaled Meshaal and other political leaders of the group to leave within a month. Hamas moved to Qatar after falling out with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad over the suppression of the 2011 revolt against his rule.
Regional and US officials said Washington has asked Qatar to expel Hamas, after the militants rejected repeated offers of a ceasefire, the latest of which was shortly before the US election. The proposal was based on releasing about 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas and a partial Israeli military drawdown. The group turned down the offer, citing lack of permanent withdrawal among other objections.
Removing Hamas from Qatar would deprive the group of a sanctuary in a moderate Arab state with connections to both Iran, Hamas’s most powerful supporter, and the West.
Hazem Ayyad, a prominent Jordanian political researcher, said Israel was behind the US request, as part of its efforts to further “push Hamas against the wall”. He warned however, that ejecting the group is in the interest of neither Washington, nor Qatar.
Iraq, Iran, Algeria and Yemen have been touted as possible new bases for Mr Meshaal and other senior Hamas officials.
“Hamas has gotten used to Qatar and has been comfortable [operating] there,” Mr Ayyad said. “Qatar has also allowed easy US access to Hamas. If Hamas is gone from Qatar, it will be also unsuitable for the other parties. Who will Washington talk to about the 100 hostages and about its plans for the day after in Gaza?”
He predicted Qatar will try to play for time in meeting the US request until Mr Trump takes power in January. “The Hamas card gives Qatar [diplomatic] weight,” he said. “They don’t want to be without it when Trump comes and they sit with him on the table.”
In rare criticism of Hamas by a public figure from Gaza, Islamic scholar Salman Al Dayeh said the group’s attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 had breached basic principles of Islam and should have been avoided.
Mr Ayyad said that although the humanitarian suffering in Gaza had undermined Hamas, wiping out the group’s military wing remains extremely difficult, because as long as it “has a social incubator, it will keep firing and will remain alive”.
The Gaza war, now in its 14th month, has destabilised the Middle East, expanding into Lebanon and raising the risk of sustained, direct hostilities between Israel and Iran. The war started in October last year, after Hamas and other Palestinian groups supported by Tehran killed 1,200 people in attacks on Israel. Health officials in Gaza say more than 43,500 people in Gaza have been killed in the subsequent Israeli invasion.
The war also affected the US election, with president-elect Donald Trump accusing the current Joe Biden administration of wavering in its support for Israel as it fights two wars, in Gaza and in Lebanon. In his first presidency, Mr Trump mediated a resumption of Arab relations with Israel, including a role in the 2020 Abraham Accords.
But his Middle East peace plan, which proposed economic benefits but little in the way of statehood, was rejected by both the religious Hamas and the secular, Western-backed Palestinian Liberation Organisation, which is headed by President Mahmoud Abbas and controls the Palestinian Administration in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
One European diplomat who has travelled repeatedly to Israel and the Palestinian territories this year said the election of Mr Trump deprives Hamas of “good options” if it leaves Qatar.
Turkey would not want to antagonise the new president, having diluted its anti-US rhetoric before the elections in case Mr Trump won, he said. Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani wants to shed his government’s links with Iran’s proxy militias. Yemen’s Houthis would be of “no use” to Hamas because of their isolation.
“Algeria is the only country with enough connections to negotiate on behalf of Hamas, but barely,” the diplomat said.