Hoover Institution (Scottsdale, AZ) – The Hoover Institution gathered its supporters in Scottsdale, Arizona, April 25‒27 for its annual spring retreat, where Director Condoleezza Rice apprised attendees of a variety of new programs underway to aid Hoover in the advancement of research-based policy ideas for a dynamic, free, and prosperous America.
Scholars presented and discussed topics ranging from the US fiscal burden to K‒12 education outcomes. Looking abroad, supporters heard the latest viewpoints on issues including the state of NATO, China’s international ambitions, the security picture in the Black Sea, and the Israel-Hamas war.
Presentations at the retreat encapsulated Hoover’s efforts to convene the best minds to enhance America’s ability to address its most pressing challenges at home and abroad.
Institutional Update with Director Rice
Hoover Institution director Condoleezza Rice updates supporters on institutional activities in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Hoover Institution director Condoleezza Rice spoke to supporters on Thursday, April 25, about new happenings at the institution, including the inaugural programming for the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) in fall 2023 and the Washington, DC, launch for the Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR) in January 2024. According to Rice, SETR’s activities in Washington demonstrate that Hoover is the destination of choice for policymakers who wish to discover leading research. The Institution continues to recruit new senior fellows, with Eugene Volokh and Philip Zelikow joining in the past year.
The Black Sea Region: Europe’s Boundary or Battleground?
Robert and Marion Oster Distinguished Military Fellow Admiral Gary Roughead speaks about the geopolitics of the Black Sea region on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Admiral Gary Roughead, Robert and Marion Oster Distinguished Military Fellow, spoke to supporters about the interests of the Black Sea states on the morning of April 25. Apart from being a vital trade route for countries including Ukraine and Romania, the Black Sea is Russia’s only access to economically and strategically vital warm water ports. Turkey dominates the region and controls the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits that permit passage into the Mediterranean. Roughead identified the need for a military accord similar to AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) to coordinate response to Russian aggression in the region.
Free Markets, Growth, and Opportunity
Left to right: Senior fellow Ross Levine, distinguished fellow Kevin Hassett, and senior fellow Amit Seru speak about US growth opportunities and fiscal challenges on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
During a subsequent session on April 25, senior fellow Ross Levine and Brent R. Nicklas Distinguished Fellow in Economics Kevin Hassett expressed concern about the rise of US federal spending in recent decades, with cumulative net debt expected to reach $48 trillion by 2034. Levine pointed out that debt levels today are analogous to what the United States incurred at the height of World War II. He argued that compounding this problem is the fact that nearly half of young workers in the US now have an unfavorable view of the market capitalist economy, making them more accepting of state interventionist policies than prior generations. During the panel, senior fellow Amit Seru described how the US financial system has been the cornerstone of entrepreneurial innovation. A turning point occurred, he said, following the financial crisis of 2007–08, when the government started to subsidize risk and made companies “too big to fail” in order to stabilize the economy.
All three panelists agreed additional measures are necessary to educate the public about the benefits of a markets-first approach to economic policies, as deregulation in the 1980s and ’90s greatly benefited the US economy and raised millions out of poverty.
Fight or Flight: How Best to Pursue K‒12 Quality
From left to right: Distinguished research fellow Macke Raymond, visiting fellow Corey DeAngelis, and Hoover fellow Michael Hartney are seen speaking about reforms to US K‒12 education in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Later on April 25, distinguished research fellow Macke Raymond, Hoover fellow Michael Hartney, and visiting fellow Corey DeAngelis contended with the dual challenges of more than a decade of declining standardized test scores in US schools combined with learning deficits accumulated during COVID-19-related school closures. They spoke about the attempts at reform made in the last forty years, well documented in the new Hoover anthology A Nation at Risk +40 (edited by Raymond and policy fellow Steve Bowen), and how most failed despite billions spent. They agreed that systematic reforms that attach funding to the student (rather than school districts) and a concerted effort to raise pay for the most effective teachers would help to reverse declines.
Update on the Middle East Conflict
Senior fellow Russell Berman speaks alongside Hoover fellow Cole Bunzel about the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the greater Middle East in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
In the afternoon of April 25, senior fellow Russell Berman and Hoover fellow Cole Bunzel spoke to supporters about developments in the greater Middle East, as the Israel Defense Forces continue their campaign to root out Hamas from its strongholds in Gaza. Berman pondered a vision of the future of Gaza. He said that a reconstructed Gaza, like the greater issue of a pathway to Palestinian statehood, would take time. Consideration must be given to deradicalization and demilitarization of Palestinian governing institutions and their ability to conduct diplomacy.
Bunzel described a recent trip to Saudi Arabia, where he has been studying Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to reform its Wahhabist-dominated political system and liberalize society at large. Bunzel also spoke of Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region and of how a possible normalization of relations with Israel would cement an alliance between the two countries to confront their shared enemy: Iran.
Veteran Fellowship Program
From left to right: Matt Brown, Gregory Eason, Trillitye Paullin, Claudia Flores, and John Moses during a discussion about Hoover’s Veteran Fellowship Program at the spring retreat in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Later in the afternoon of April 25, five veterans of the US armed forces spoke about their experience in Hoover’s Veteran Fellowship Program, which supports their initiatives to address policy challenges in their respective communities. The veteran panelists are working to address issues including resettling Afghan evacuees in the United States, advocating for improved pediatric allergy care, partnering with faith-based organizations to provide new housing opportunities, and introducing cognitive behavioral therapy in the US armed forces to reduce suicides.
The End of Everything—Ancient and Modern
Victor Davis Hanson, Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow, speaks to attendees of the Hoover Spring Retreat over dinner on April 25, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Drawing on insights from his latest book, The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, Victor Davis Hanson, Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow, gave the dinner keynote address on April 25 based on the idea that progress has not made modern societies immune from the horrors of war or extinction. Hanson cited examples in history, from Alexander the Great’s conquest of Thebes to the Spanish destruction of Aztec civilization, and noted each was perpetrated by an empire in decline. He then transitioned to examining contemporary issues, with Russia rattling the nuclear saber, Iran threatening Israel with destruction, and even Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hints at missiles raining on Greek cities.
The First Amendment and Artificial Intelligence
Senior Fellow Eugene Volokh, Thomas P. Seibel Senior Fellow, speaks about how the rise of AI is creating new First Amendment challenges at the Hoover Institution’s Spring Retreat in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 26, 2024. (Eric Draper)
In the first morning session on Friday, April 26, First Amendment scholar and Thomas P. Seibel Senior Fellow Eugene Volokh raised a real-life case in which AI-assisted search engine Bing confused technologist Jeffery Battle, a veteran, academic, and businessman, with Jeffrey Leon Battle, a man convicted of trying to join the Taliban in Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks. The non-convicted Battle is currently suing Bing developer Microsoft for libel.
Volokh then analyzed whether Microsoft’s output is constitutionally protected speech or an example of libel. He also examined other challenges AI poses to democracy and the rule of law, including issues of copyright, and the implications of such technologies in informing voters’ choices in future elections.
US-China Relations in 2024: The Taiwan Angle
Hoover fellow Erin Baggott Carter speaks about public opinion in China alongside research fellow Kharis Templeman and distinguished research fellow Glenn Tiffert at Hoover’s Spring Retreat in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 26, 2024. (Eric Draper)
Also on Friday, April 26, Hoover fellow Erin Baggott Carter, research fellow Kharis Templeman, and distinguished research fellow Glenn Tiffert spoke about the domestic social and economic situation within China, the state of its relationship with Taiwan, and the need for the United States to enhance its response to Chinese diplomatic, military, and economic ambitions around the globe. Carter described her new, unique survey approach for conducting polling in China, which provided respondents a shield of anonymity. As she noted, the polling revealed that support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is no higher than 50 percent, much less than the 90 percent published in other polls.
Carter also pointed out that when growth is slowing and unemployment is rising within China, the CCP usually behaves more aggressively externally, such as in its threats against Taiwan.
Templeman walked the audience through the implications of a Chinese takeover attempt of Taiwan. Templeman argued that a takeover would mark a seismic geopolitical shift as Taiwan manufactures over 90 percent of the world’s semiconductor supply and ranks as America’s tenth largest trading partner. Meanwhile, Tiffert discussed the CCP grand strategy to encourage the US to become entangled in numerous engagements outside of Asia so as to weaken its ability to confront China in the Indo-Pacific.
Getting a Nuclear Deal Right: Firsthand Accounts of the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement
From left to right, research fellow Dinsha Mistree, distinguished visiting fellow David Mulford, director Condoleezza Rice, and senior fellow Philip Zelikow are seen at Hoover’s annual spring retreat in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 26, 2024. (Eric Draper)
In an afternoon session on April 26, research fellow Dinsha Mistree moderated a panel featuring Director Rice, distinguished visiting fellow David Mulford, and Botha-Chan Senior Fellow Philip Zelikow. They discussed the lengthy process that led to the signing of the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement in 2008. The effort to finalize the deal spanned nearly the entire George W. Bush presidency, but since its signing, the relationship between the two democracies has flourished. At the time of the negotiations and signing of the agreement, Rice served as America’s sixty-sixth secretary of state, while Zelikow was the counselor at the US Department of State. Mulford, who served as the US ambassador to India, provides a personal account of his tenure and the events leading to the historic accord in the new digital exclusive published by Hoover Institution Press, Forging Trust with India: The Dramatic Story of Achieving the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement.
The trio spoke about the challenges of implementing policy in an environment complicated by global sanctions imposed on India following its nuclear weapons tests in the 1970s and 1990s.
Library & Archives: The Victor Herman Collection
Hoover Institution deputy director Eric Wakin shows a video about Victor Herman, a Soviet-American athlete and dissident, whose story can now be fully told after his daughters donated a collection of his effects to Hoover’s Library & Archives. (Eric Draper)
Later in the afternoon of April 26, Hoover Institution deputy director and Everett and Jane Hauck Director of Library & Archives Eric Wakin delivered a multimedia presentation on the Victor Herman collection. Herman, the son of Russian immigrants living in Detroit, was relocated to the Soviet Union by his father when he was fourteen. A distinguished athlete and skydiver, Herman declared US citizenship rather than Soviet during a skydiving competition in Europe. Consequently, he was persecuted by the Soviet government and imprisoned in a gulag for decades. He returned to America in 1976. Wakin detailed Herman’s story and his acquisition of the collection through connecting with Herman’s daughters, Svetlana and Janna.
The 75th Anniversary of NATO
Left to Right: Davies Family Distinguished Fellow Jim Mattis, research fellow Rose Gottemoeller, and Director Condoleezza Rice reflect on NATO at seventy-five years old at Hoover’s Spring Retreat in Scottsdale, Arizona, on April 26, 2024. (Eric Draper)
In a dinner conversation moderated by Director Rice on April 26, research fellow Rose Gottemoeller (former deputy secretary general of NATO) and Davies Family Distinguished Fellow Jim Mattis (former secretary of defense) reflected on the legacy of the NATO alliance after seventy-five years. They examined internal challenges within the alliance, including issues involving Hungary, Turkey, and France. The three reflected on NATO’s response to the September 11 attacks and its subsequent galvanization in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting Sweden and Finland’s departure from neutrality to officially join the alliance.
