In a televised speech, Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said“Our fingers are on the trigger.”
The fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire appears to be unraveling after the Gaza-based terror group postponed this weekend’s expected hostage release “until further notice.” Hamas has said it will delay the release of hostages in response to what it says are Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including not allowing sufficient aid into Gaza. For their part, Israeli officials accuse Hamas of violating the terms of the deal by failing to produce the names of hostages to be released on time and keeping civilian women in captivity longer than Israel Defense Forces soldiers.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement late Tuesday, vowing that “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon – the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated.” While the termination of the short-lived ceasefire arrangement would undoubtedly lead to a ramp-up in hostilities between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s other regional proxies would also resume the conflict. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels explicitly promised to revive attacks targeting Israel if the ceasefire fails.
What we know about the Houthi threats
In a televised speech, Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi threatened the “security, military and economic consequences of a potential escalation of conflict.” The leader notably added, “Our (the Houthis) fingers are on the trigger.” When the ceasefire took effect a few weeks ago, the Iranian-backed group paused barrages targeting Israel and other international vessels in the Red Sea. The rebel group ramped up attacks in the region following the October 7, 2023, massacre. Initially, the group largely targeted Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, but its attacks soon evolved to include all ships with direct or indirect links to Israel. The Houthis’ ability to disrupt the global economy by inflicting chaos on the strategic waterway that sees nearly a fifth of the world’s oil production pass through each year is particularly concerning. In fact, many ships, including international vessels, have had to avoid voyages via the Bab al Mandab in an effort to circumvent these frequent barrages.
How Iran supports its regional proxies
From October 2023 to mid-2024 alone, the Houthis attacked more than five dozen vessels in the Red Sea. If the Israel-Hamas ceasefire does fail, the onset of revived barrages will cause further headaches in the region. Like Hezbollah in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis benefit from weapons deliveries from Iran. The Islamic Republic has smuggled increasingly advanced weaponry to the Houthis for at least a decade. Just last month, U.S. forces intercepted a shipment of military aid sent by Iran to the Houthis, including missile warheads, UAV components, and even anti-tank missile units. Similar military aid has propped up the regime’s other proxy affiliates throughout the region.
Since Tehran has faced several debilitating blows over the last couple of years, including the collapse of the Assad government in Syria, the near decimation of Hezbollah, and the destruction of Hamas’ enclave, the regime has a lot to prove. In order to maintain an aura of power in the region, Iran will certainly direct its functioning proxy groups to ramp up activity going forward.
About the Author: Maya Carlin
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.
Image: Mohammed al-wafi / Shutterstock.com