Geopolitics
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The US has been in a diplomatic scramble, backed by more military might, to both clinch a Gaza cease-fire and protect Israel, following the late July assassinations of top Hamas and Hezbollah figures. Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” allies are readying retaliation, although the scope, scale and timing of a response is unclear. A wider conflict or sustained US military engagement is viewed as hurting Vice President Kamala Harris’ prospects in the November elections, including by spiking oil prices and boosting the chances of former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. A regional war would also draw US attention and resources away from countering Russia’s war against Ukraine and great power competition with China.