20 Jun 2025 Issue: 68 / 25 By: Jamie Ingram
The IEA sees Opec+ market share suffering further through the remainder of the decade, as global oil demand peaks and non-Opec+ supply remains robust.
Global oil markets are undergoing a fundamental transformation says the IEA, as it points to demand growth slowing to a trickle from 2028 onwards before entering a slight decline in 2030. The group’s closely watched medium term outlook, Oil 2025, was released this week and on a macro level it has largely stuck to the projections in last year’s report (MEES, 14 June 2024), with demand plateauing at the end of the decade.
The IEA sees global demand increasing by 2.5mn b/d to plateau at around 105.5mn b/d by 2030 (see chart 1), with annual demand growth slowing massively from recent typical levels of >1mn b/d. Even this year’s growth is projected at just 720,000 b/d (MEES, 20 June). (CONTINUED – 780 WORDS)
Read this article for free
Gain access to over 60-years of energy analysis and news
-
Delve into the details backed by data
-
Exclusive information from high-level officials
-
Assess future risks and opportunities
Subscribe Now or Login to get full access to this article
IN THIS ARTICLE
Charts
1: IEA Leaves Medium Global Term Oil Demand Outlook Largely Unchanged From Last Year*, Slightly Revises Up 2030 Forecast (mn b/d)
2: IEA Supply Outlook (mn b/d): Opec+ Share Of Global Production To Fall From Current Levels
3: IEA Forecast On Opec+ Crude Capacity Changes (mn b/d: 2030 Vs 2024)
REFERENCED MEES ARTICLES
Get Our Headlines Weekly
Keep abreast with current events with our weekly headlines.
You’ll also be notified of our free articles & maps.
By signing up, you agree to receive promotional emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. For more information, read our privacy statement.