In the Middle East, Trump can’t have his cake and eat it too

Opinion

November 21, 2024 — 5.00am

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hit the jackpot with the election of Donald Trump. He could not hope for a more ardent supporter than the US president-elect to energise him and the extremists within his coalition to pursue their Gaza and Lebanon campaigns, and as they seek to diminish Iran’s regional influence.

But, given the complexity of the Middle East, Trump stabilising the region based on ensuring Israel’s regional paramountcy will not prove easy.

While Trump has said he is not afraid to use US power to boost what he regards as America’s national interests, he is not fond of conflicts. His motto is that he ends wars, and does not start them. He has proudly claimed that not a single war started during his first presidency, and that he vigorously sought to end the Afghanistan war responsibly through a peace deal with the Taliban, but that it was President Joe Biden who made a mess of the US withdrawal from the country.

Regarding the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts, however, he has promised Netanyahu all the assistance he needs to succeed against Hamas and Hezbollah, and to rebuff Iran as the main villain and sponsor of terrorism in the region.

In the weeks since his election win, Trump has already nominated a foreign policy team made up of staunchly pro-Netanyahu and pro-Israel elements. Coming from the far-right, with many linked to Christian evangelist movements, the group includes Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel and Steve Witkoff as Middle East envoy. The two are well known for their deep attachment to Netanyahu, and his extremist national security and finance ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Huckabee also denies the existence of Palestine as a historical entity, previously stating there is no such a thing as the West Bank, but rather Judea and Samaria as part of the God-given Jewish homeland.

Backing them in this are Israel-centric vice president-elect J.D. Vance, Trump’s deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, and a series of nominees: Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state, Congressman Mike Waltz as national security advisor, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador and Fox News presenter Pete Hegseth as secretary of defence.

Trump’s “Israel first” Middle East policy can only help the Netanyahu leadership to become more assertive to achieve its goal of the “Greater Israel” – which is enshrined in the Likud Party’s platform and refers to all territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea – and seek to constrain Iran’s regional capabilities. It is now set not only to clear the way, at least in northern Gaza, for Israeli settlements, tighten control over southern Lebanon, and goad Iran into a wider confrontation, but also to declare annexation of the West Bank. As part of this, Smotrich has already ordered the relevant authorities to prepare for the extension of Israeli sovereignty over the illegal settlements there.

As the Israeli scorched-earth operations continue unabated in Gaza with defenceless civilians, including many children, being killed or dying from starvation and diseases daily, there is also no let up in Lebanon either. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has ruled out any ceasefire until Hezbollah is totally disarmed and pushed back beyond the Litani River – 30 kilometres north of the Israeli border. Meanwhile, weakening and humiliating Iran remains Israel’s main target, with the full support of Trump and his Middle East team.

But Trump also fancies himself as a transactional leader and skilled deal-maker, and is likely keen to expand America’s lucrative trade and economic relations with America’s traditional oil-rich Arab friends in the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia, and to encourage them to invest more in the US in return for robust security assurances. After his 2016 win, the first country he visited was Saudi Arabia, from where he came away with some $US400 billion worth of trade deals and military sales.

Further, Trump would like to entice Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords (that he previously instigated) to solidify an Israeli-Arab front against Iran. He may also want to maintain America’s aid to Egypt and Jordan, whose governments have been more muted than their populations over Israel’s actions in Gaza and atrocities in the West Bank and Lebanon.

Yet, these objectives, plus the recent strengthening of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose defence ministers met in Tehran earlier this month and whose navies have participated in a joint exercise, and Riyadh’s emphasis on a pathway to create an independent Palestinian state, do not augur well for Trump to be both a warrior for Israel and a transactional leader with the Arab states. He cannot have his cake and eat it too. He will need to find a balance between the two.

For this, Trump needs to accomplish two intertwined objectives: to ensure Israel’s security and wellbeing at all costs, and to have Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners on board as highly profitable markets for American businesses as one of the main constituencies of his domestic support.

This would require overcoming certain hurdles: persuading Netanyahu and his coalition to moderate their irredentist ambitions towards a political settlement of the Palestinian issue in return for the normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia, and defying any attempts by his Israel-centric nominees for cabinet and ambassadorial posts, led by Huckabee, to derail his efforts.

Trump may have little difficulty in overcoming the latter, given the size of his electoral victory and force of personality. But he will have serious difficulties in diverting Netanyahu and his colleagues from their mission of occupation and territorial expansion. Netanyahu has a successful history of defying American leaders based primarily on the strong bipartisan support that Israel enjoys in the US Congress.

With the Republicans controlling both legislative houses, Netanyahu is assured of formidable leverage should the president try to have it both ways.

This places Trump between a rock and a hard place. He may find the Middle East a very difficult nut to crack. At the same time, Trump is known for his impulsive moves. Few could accurately predict which way he will turn once he is in office.

Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University, adjunct professor of social sciences at the University of Western Australia, and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University.