There’s just a day to go until Iran votes in an emergency snap election.
On Friday the country will choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi.
He was killed in a helicopter crash a month ago.
There are six candidates that have been allowed to run.
This election is not a demonstration of free-wheeling democracy.
The ballot is tightly controlled by an assembly of clerics and jurists and all of it ultimately takes place under the watchful eye of the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Those in the running then have been very carefully selected. A total of 80 applicants in all were screened by the hardline Guardian Council.
The stakes though could not be higher for the country. The election is happening at a time when the region is convulsing.
Iran‘s standoff with Israel remains extraordinarily tense as the war in Gaza rages on and its proxy Hezbollah slugs it out with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on the Israel-Lebanon border.
There are questions too about what the next president will mean for Iran’s nuclear programme.
Inside Iran, there’s also been a wave of domestic unrest, including women’s rights protests following the death of Mahsa Amini, who died while she was in the custody of Iran’s Morality Police in September 2022.
Much of the population is seething, unhappy with the draconian government of clerics and a succession of profound economic crises which show no sign of ending.
The regime is also aware that the next president will be integral to the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor.
He’s advancing in years and is reportedly in poor health.
This then is an important moment in Iran and could indirectly set the direction the country takes for years to come.
However, there is a caveat – the president’s authority is of course limited.
Day-to-day governance and bureaucracy are within the presidential fiat but ultimate power rests with the supreme leader.
He – and it always is a man – has the final say in all important matters.
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The six candidates are unlikely to generate huge excitement amongst the Iranian population or deliver meaningful change for the people.
Five of them are hardliners and only one could be described as a reformist. They’ve all sworn allegiance to the Supreme Leader and by extension the status quo.
MOHAMMAD BAQER QALIBAF – A hardcore ally of Khamenei, Qalibaf is a former revolutionary guards commander.
He currently holds the position of speaker of parliament. To many Iranians, he’s known as a man with blood on his hands crushing protests in the past.
SAEED JALILI – Another hardliner who lost his leg fighting for the revolutionary guards in the Iran-Iraq war.
Described as pious he’s an insider who believes very much in the clerical system of absolute authority.
MASSOUD PEZESHKIAN – The only candidate that could be described as a moderate. He was not allowed to run in the 2021 presidential election.
MOSTAFA POURMOHAMMADI – The only cleric in the running. In 2005 a Human Rights Watch report documented allegations of his role in the execution of political prisoners.
ALIREZA ZAKANI – The mayor of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Another hardliner.
AMIR HOSSEIN GHAZIZADEH-HASHEMI – Currently serving as Iran’s vice president, he is a regime insider and ultra-conservative in outlook.
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Iran’s leadership sees the next 24 hours as a critical test.
The country’s citizens are being urged to turn out in huge numbers.
In a fiery speech on Tuesday aimed at galvanising the population, Ayatollah Khamenei, said: “People’s participation is the essence of the Islamic Republic.”
Many Iranian activists are calling for a boycott of the election describing them as a farce. On social media the hashtag “ElectionCircus” has been trending.
All of this presents problems for the clerical leadership.
They need to show the revolution is still functioning.
If participation is dire it will provoke yet more questions about the regime’s legitimacy.