The Iranian government plays the long game. With Trump’s Pentagon signaling not only a pivot to Asia but also a pivot away from the Middle East, the new administration encourages Tehran to play the clock.
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The Iranian government is worried. With the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal set to expire, Tehran believed it would be home free under a Kamala Harris presidency. Instead, it has President Donald Trump, whose legacy includes not only “maximum pressure” but also the assassination of Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani.
Iranian leaders also gambled on Europe’s willingness to allow commercial interests to trump security. In December, however, Britain, France, and Germany signaled support to snap back the sanctions that existed before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The European countries’ move came after an International Atomic Energy Agency decision in November to censure the Islamic Republic for lack of cooperation.
The likelihood of Israeli action to reduce Iran’s nuclear program to radioactive rubble, if not bury Khamenei, is now greater than ever before.
Partisans may side with Iran and blame Trump personally for walking away from the JCPOA, but they miss two points: First, the United Nations Security Council enshrined Iran’s responsibilities in Resolution 2231 whether the United States remained a party to the agreement or not, and, second, the JCPOA did not supplant Iran’s responsibilities under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
With snapback looming, the Iranian government now seeks to negotiate. There are many reasons why the Iranian regime, despite its bluster, would like to avoid sanctions. First, despite billions of dollars returning to Iran because of the Biden administration unfreezing assets, failing to enforce sanctions, and playing into Tehran’s hostage diplomacy with multibillion dollar ransoms, the Iranian economy is a shambles. Inflation escalates, and living standards plummet. While the Woman, Life, Freedom movement exposed the regime’s lack of legitimacy among ordinary Iranians, cracks also developed among those upon whose support Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has always relied: children of martyrs, Revolutionary Guard veterans, and traditional religious families.
Second, the Islamic Republic’s military setbacks change the operational environment. The Assad regime’s fall ended a 45-year alliance, and Hezbollah is a shell of its former self. Khamenei’s decision to order salvoes of missiles at Israel shredded redlines. The likelihood of Israeli action to reduce Iran’s nuclear program to radioactive rubble, if not bury Khamenei, is now greater than ever before.
Trump is a consummate deal-maker, and Iranian officials signal they are ready for a deal. Regional states say Trump has already empowered Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to begin discussions with Tehran.
Superficially, the outline of a possible deal should be clear: Iran should cease enriching uranium to levels that have no credible civilian function and perhaps even forfeit some of its stockpile. In exchange, the United States would foreswear any attack on Iran’s nuclear program and perhaps even block Israel from striking Iran or providing it with the weaponry it would need to do so.
Such a deal would not be a path to peace, but rather a tactical delay to outlast Trump in the hope that a new administration would pose far less a threat.
Trump should have no illusion, though: Such a deal would not be a path to peace, but rather a tactical delay to outlast Trump in the hope that a new administration would pose far less a threat. Khamenei’s ideology is not for sale. Iranians are sophisticated analysts of American politics. They understand Trump has only two years to achieve his agenda before some within his own team begin to position themselves for presidential runs of their own. Further, with Trump’s Pentagon signaling not only a pivot to Asia but also a pivot away from the Middle East, the new administration encourages Tehran to play the clock, much like it did as former President Barack Obama pulled U.S. forces out of the Middle East.
The Iranian government plays the long game. Khamenei believes he is the deputy of God and that the destruction of Israel hastens the messianic moment. Khamenei sees in Trump’s deal-making not a mechanism for Iran to rejoin the community of nations, but rather a useful idiot who could allow his regime to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. As soon as Trump leaves office, so too will the pretense of Iranian compromise. The question for Trump is whether he will affirm Khamenei’s calculus as correct or whether he will be the president who sets the stage for the permanent elimination of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program and perhaps the regime itself.
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iran and Turkey. His career includes time as a Pentagon official, with field experiences in Iran, Yemen, and Iraq, as well as engagements with the Taliban prior to 9/11. Mr. Rubin has also contributed to military education, teaching U.S. Navy and Marine units about regional conflicts and terrorism. His scholarly work includes several key publications, such as “Dancing with the Devil” and “Eternal Iran.” Rubin earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in history and a B.S. in biology from Yale University.