Israel-Hezbollah: Retaliation without escalation

A woman carries a frame that shows a portrait for Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, as she passes by destroyed houses that were hit by Israeli airstrikes, in Aita al-Shaab, a Lebanese border village with Israel, south Lebanon. | Photo Credit: AP

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Fuad Shukr, the ‘ghost’ commander of Hezbollah, was killed on July 31 in an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shia group that’s backed by Iran, had vowed to avenge Shukr’s death. In Israel’s north, a slow-burning war has been raging since October 2023, turning northern Israel and southern Lebanon into firing zones. Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel since the Israel-Hamas war broke out, and Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes in Lebanon, targeting the militia group. Hezbollah says it would continue to attack Israel as long as its war on Gaza continues. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says ‘we will hurt whoever is hurting us”, indicating that the war in the north was far from being concluded.

Shukr was the senior most Hezbollah commander killed by Israel in the 10-month long war. A retaliatory attack was due. In the early morning of August 25, at least 100 Israeli war planes carried out massive attacks in Lebanon, which Israeli authorities claimed was a pre-emptive strike. Israel had intelligence that Hezbollah was planning to carry out a large-scale attack and it wanted to blunt the strike. But Hezbollah still fired hundreds of katyusha rockets and drones towards Israel, killing at least one Israeli naval officer. According to Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group delayed the attack because of the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. The talks in Doha, which followed Israel’s killing of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, did not make any meaningful progress; gaps remained between the positions of Hamas and Israel. Israel wants to maintain its troops presence in Rafah, on the Egyptian border, and in northern Gaza, while Hamas wants a complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces.

If the war in Gaza continues, the war between Israel and Hezbollah will also continue. After Sunday’s strikes and counter-strikes, both Hezbollah and Israel claimed victory. But they also signalled de-escalation. Nasrallah said Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes for the killing of Shukr are over, for now, while Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defence Minister, said he and U.S. Defence Secretary Llyod Austin “discussed the importance of regional escalation”. The message is clear: both sides do not want an all-out war yet, but they will not stay away from retaliatory strikes. If Israel keeps killing Hezbollah commanders, Hezbollah would not shy away from launching bigger attacks. On the other side, Israel would not shy away from counter or pre-emptive strikes. These are cyclical retaliatory spikes in otherwise controlled warfare.

Do the signs of de-escalation mean the risks of an all-out war over? No. Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political chief, was killed in Tehran on the same day as Shukr was killed in Beirut. Iran has also vowed retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh on its soil. There were reports last week that Iran has placed the retaliatory strike on hold. But if Iran retaliates with a direct attack on Israel, it could be the next flashpoint in the war. And there is not guarantee that Israel would restrain itself from targeting more senior Hezbollah commanders or carrying out attacks inside Iran. Israel has a high risk-appetite and it has constantly pushed the envelope, challenging Iran and its proxies. So unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza and the region calms down, the path towards the wider war would stay open.

Modi in Kyiv

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said if India and Indians “change their attitude” towards Russia, the war will end because Russian President Vladimir Putin will end it. He was talking of India’s “record breaking” deals for oil from Russia in an interaction with India reporters who were in Kyiv to cover Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the war-hit country. “If you stop import of oil, Putin will have huge challenges,” said the Ukrainian leader. He also sought greater cooperation with India in high-tech technologies across several areas such as agriculture, cybersecurity and defence, stressing co-production of drones, electronic warfare systems, among others. Elaborating on the different high-end technologies in response to a question from The Hindu, he said, “It’s about agriculture, de-mining, medicine, security such as drones, electronic warfare systems, it’s a lot, its connections… against cyber attacks. We are ready to speak about it, ready to speak about sea drones, a lot of different technologies. We had good agreements before the war. We are open with all of this and we are ready to co-produce for both our markets,” reports my colleague Dinakar Peri from Kyiv.

Earlier in Kyiv, Mr. Modi said India was on the side of peace. “We (India) are not neutral. From the very beginning, we have taken sides. And we have chosen the side of peace,” Mr. Modi told Mr. Zelenskyy, underlining India’s commitment towards respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries.

In July, when Mr. Modi visited Russia and met Vladimir Putin, it triggered criticisms in the West. The U.S. publicly expressed its concern about the visit, and Mr. Zelenskyy called it a setback to peace efforts. By visiting Ukraine, India has signalled that it remains a balancing power. But it is to be seen what kind of strategic value Mr. Modi’s visit could create rather than sending a symbolic message of balancing.

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