Analysis: Iran is trying to show off its firepower
By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor
The warning from Iran to Israel is written on the side of a missile. It reads: “Decisive victory.”
Posters of the political leader of Hamas and the head of Hezbollah – both killed in Israeli strikes – are also plastered on ballistic missiles in a slickly-produced video released by Iran’s revolutionary guard to state media channels.
The footage purports to show Tuesday’s revenge attack on Israel, with multiple munitions then blasting into the sky in a barrage of fire, edited to a religious song used at times of war.
It is impossible to tell if these were among the actual nearly 200 missiles used in the strikes.
But the aim seems to be to demonstrate Iran’s firepower in a fight where words and images are as much of a weapon as bullets and bombs.
Despite the impression of destruction created by the three-minute video – Israel says much of the incoming fire was intercepted.
Its military has acknowledged that a number of airbases were hit but it deemed the onslaught “ineffective”, pointing to how Israeli warplanes were still able to operate afterwards.
A conflicting battle of narratives is common in war, with either side needing to convey the impression that they are winning regardless of the reality.
In the case of Iran’s missiles attack, an Iranian claim that 90% of its munitions struck their targets is particularly hard to believe, though, given the number of intercepts that were clearly visible during the attack.
Yet, an Israeli counterclaim that the damage it suffered was limited is also impossible to verify without access to the military sites that did suffer impacts.
For its part, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has a huge information operation that has been playing a dominant role in the war ever since the October 7 Hamas attacks.
Footage, photographs and graphics of military strikes, operations and exercises are issued daily across social media channels and to all mainstream media organisations.
The resources and effort put into this careful, timely messaging of military manoeuvres underlines the critical importance attached by the Israeli government to trying as much to win battles in the information space as it does to win the actual war-fighting on the ground.
The IDF also uses videos and other posts to communicate directly with its enemies.
You can see a video it released purporting to show its troops in Lebanon below…
A few days ago, it published a clip on X, formerly known as Twitter, that showed a line of dominoes – each bearing an image of a Hezbollah commander, right up to Hassan Nasrallah, the leader – toppling on after the other.
The video finished with more dominoes still standing for now, but bearing blank faces, followed by the words: “To be continued.”
Israeli strike cuts off road near Lebanese border crossing, says transport minister
An Israeli strike has cut off a road near a Lebanese border crossing, Lebanon’s transport minister has said.
Ali Hamieh said the attack had created a 4m (12ft) wide crater in the middle of the road near the Masnaa crossing with Syria.
He told Reuters the hundreds of thousands of people had been using the route to flee Israeli strikes.
Yesterday, the Israel Defence Forces accused Hezbollah of using the crossing to transport military equipment into Lebanon.
“The IDF will not allow the smuggling of these weapons and will not hesitate to act if forced to do so, as it has done throughout this war,” IDF spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.
Good morning
Welcome back to our live coverage of the conflict in the Middle East.
Before we bring you up to date with all the latest news, here are the key updates from the past 24 hours:
Beirut hit by Israeli strikes
Airstrikes hit Lebanon’s capital against last night.
The capital’s southern Dahieh suburb, a stronghold for Hezbollah, came under renewed attack, with Israel’s military ordering people to leave their homes in parts of the district.
Some of last night’s strikes hit close to Beirut’s international airport, which sits on the border of the Dahieh suburb.
Hezbollah commander linked to rocket attack killed
Israel claims to have killed a Hezbollah commander behind the July attack on a football pitch in the Golan Heights that killed 12 children and teenagers.
“Yesterday, acting on IDF intelligence, IAF fighter jets eliminated Khider al Shaebia, the terrorist who was responsible for the attack in Majdal Shams,” the IDF said.
Hezbollah is yet to comment.
Strike in West Bank city of Tulkarm
The Israeli military says it killed the head of the Hamas network in the Palestinian city of Tulkarm with an airstrike.
It said Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi supplied weapons to terrorists in the West Bank area and was planning to execute a terror attack in the “immediate” future.
According to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, the attack killed at least 18 people.
Biden comments cause oil prices to jump
US President Joe Biden said the US was “discussing” the possibility of Israel striking Iranian oil sites, prompting the price of oil to jump 5%.
Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world, exporting around half its production abroad.
Mr Biden later told reporters he didn’t believe there would be an all-out war in the Middle East, but there was still “a lot to do” to bring calm to the region.
Here are some of the other key things you need to know:
- The Lebanese army has fired back at Israeli forces for the first time since the conflict began a year ago, a Lebanese security source has told Reuters;
- Senior Lebanese officials said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated shortly after he agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Israel;
- The Israel Defence Forces has said it freed a 21-year-old Yazidi woman who had been held in Gaza by Hamas for more than 10 years;
- The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said that at least 28 on-duty medics have been killed in the past 24 hours in Lebanon, amid continuing Israeli airstrikes and ground action;
- The Israeli military claimed another of its soldiers has been killed in battle in southern Lebanon;
- The IDF also said it had noted the launch of approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory yesterday;
- Lebanese officials have claimed 1,974 people – including 127 children – have been killed in Israeli attacks in the last year.
Pro-Palestine protest in Sydney to proceed after deal with police
A pro-Palestine group in Sydney will be allowed to proceed with their protest rally on Sunday after police tried to get it called off.
Law enforcement asked the Supreme Court of New South Wales to block planned demonstrations this weekend, citing safety concerns.
Their petition was dismissed by consent after organisers agreed to change the location and route of the protest and not display flags, portraits, or symbols of prohibited organisations.
The Palestine Action Group Sydney also withdrew its request to protest on 7 Oct, the first anniversary of the terror attack from Hamas that sparked war in the Middle East.
Police said in a statement they would work with organisers to ensure the safety of the community and would not “hesitate to take appropriate action against anyone who commits a criminal offence”.
Protests in Melbourne last weekend saw some participants waving Hezbollah flags and carrying pictures of its former leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in Israeli strikes.
Iran may be behind attacks on Israeli embassies, Sweden says
Iran may have been behind the gunfire and explosions that took place near the Israeli embassies in Stockholm and Copenhagen this week, Sweden’s security service has said.
Shots were fired at the Israeli embassy in Stockholm on Monday, while two explosions were reported near the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen on Wednesday morning.
Nobody was injured, and two Swedish teenagers were arrested and charged with possessing hand grenades and detonating them near the embassy.
Fredrik Hallstrom, from Sweden’s security service Sapo, said the choice of targets and methods pointed in the direction of Iran, but added this was an “assumption rather than pure knowledge”.
Danish police have not confirmed whether the Israeli embassy was the target of the explosions. There are other embassies close to where the blasts were heard.
Watch: How the Middle East crisis affects Ukraine
With the crisis in the Middle East appearing to escalate, what are the implications for the Russia-Ukraine war?
Sky’s military analyst Sean Bell breaks down how a face-off between Iran and Israel could have weapons-supply ramifications for both Russia and Ukraine.
Biden confident of avoiding all-out war in Middle East
US President Joe Biden has said he believes an all-out war in the Middle East can be avoided.
Mr Biden made the comments on the White House lawn following a trip to visit areas damaged by Hurricane Helene.
Asked how confident he was that there wouldn’t be a regional war, he said: “How confident are you it’s not going to rain?
“Look. I don’t believe there’s going to be an all-out war. I think we can avoid it. But there’s a lot to do yet. A lot to do yet.”
Mr Biden was also asked why he had not spoken to Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days, after he said he would do on Sunday.
He said: “Because there’s no action going on right now.”
Number of people killed in West Bank strike rises to 18 – health ministry
At least 18 Palestinians have died in an Israeli airstrike in the West Bank city of Tulkarm, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
The Israeli military earlier said that it had conducted a strike on Tulkarm which killed the head of the Hamas network in the city.
It said Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi supplied weapons to “terrorists” in the West Bank area and was planning to execute a terror attack in the “immediate” future.
The IDF added that “multiple other significant terrorists” were eliminated in the strike.
In a post on X, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa called the attack a “massacre” and said Israel was “ignoring global calls for justice”.
WHO chief calls for ‘urgent’ flights into Beirut carrying medical supplies
The head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has called for urgent help to bring medical supplies into Lebanon.
The country is currently engulfed in a humanitarian crisis due to ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
Medical officials have reported hospitals across the country being overwhelmed with injured people due to the violence.
Posting on X, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for the “urgent facilitation of flights to deliver health supplies”.
He said the problem had been exacerbated due to the “almost complete closure of Beirut’s airport”.
There were reports that one of the Israeli strikes targeting Beirut in the past hours hit close to Beirut’s airport.
Biden declines public negotiation on Israel’s stance on Iran’s oil sites
Joe Biden has said he will not negotiate in public when asked if he had urged Israel not to attack Iran’s oil facilities.
Israel is said to be deciding how it will retaliate to the missile attack launched against it by Tehran on Tuesday.
Mr Biden has already said publicly he advises against Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities in its response.
Asked by reporters whether he would urge Israel not to go after Iran’s oil as well, he said: “I know not to negotiate in public.”