TOKYO – As United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin wrapped up his three-day farewell tour of Tokyo on Dec 11, China was amassing what Taipei describes as the largest maritime fleet deployment in recent memory.
Analysts are trying to decipher China’s real intentions. Was the show of force to protest against Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s tour of the Pacific last week, which also included stopovers in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam?
Or, was it meant to intimidate US regional allies Japan, Australia, the Philippines and South Korea, while sending a message to incoming president Donald Trump?
Whatever China’s intentions, the consensus among observers is that the brinkmanship exemplifies what has come to be seen as East Asia’s gravest existential threat – a bloody invasion waged by Beijing on self-ruled democratic Taiwan, which China deems a renegade province to be unified with the mainland.
Trump’s return as US President with his inauguration on Jan 20, and the big-power confrontation that he is likely to wage against China, means many expect the volatility and unpredictability in the region to intensify.
Given this turbulence, Tokyo has stepped up to shore up the lattice-work of partnerships that were forged under the outgoing Joe Biden administration, through a series of trilateral meetings and exercises this week that coincided with Mr Austin’s visit.
Senior officials from Japan, US and South Korea met on Dec 9 to discuss North Korea, and on Dec 11 to talk about the Indo-Pacific. The first Japan-US-Philippines maritime dialogue was convened on Dec 10. Simultaneously, Japanese, US and Australian troops are conducting week-long command post exercises that will end on Dec 13.
The hope is that these mechanisms will survive the political transition in the United States – not to mention in South Korea, following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ill-advised martial law attempt. Tokyo expects a new government there could well undo their recent progress in ties.
“The world can change drastically in a week. No one expected the situation in South Korea to turn out like this, and no one predicted the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria the way it did,” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in a meeting with Mr Austin on Dec 10.
Mr Austin agreed that it was a time of dynamic change, adding: “May our alliance remain the cornerstone of peace and stability in this region for the foreseeable future.”
Their meeting came a day after Mr Austin spoke to crew members on board the nuclear-powered flagship aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which is currently docked at a US Navy base in Yokosuka. Mr Austin singled out China as the only country in the world that is bent on and capable of upending the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific.
“In light of regional tensions, including China’s naval manoeuvres and concerns surrounding Taiwan, such a high-profile visit sends a clear signal of deterrence and reassurance to allies,” Keio University defence expert Ken Jimbo told The Straits Times.
But Mr Austin will step down as defence chief in just over five weeks, with Trump having named Mr Pete Hegseth, a former Army National Guard major and Fox News co-host, as his Pentagon pick.
“Austin’s farewell tour is about diplomatic niceties but also seeking to lock in and Trump-proof what Japan’s defence ministry calls ‘remarkable progress’ in the US-Japan alliance under the Biden administration,” Professor Heng Yee Kuang of the Graduate School of Public Policy at The University of Tokyo said.
In separate meetings with Mr Ishiba and Japanese counterpart Gen Nakatani, Mr Austin took stock of “how much we’ve accomplished over the past four years”, while also reassuring Tokyo that the US is “committed to building on that progress”.
Despite his assurances, very real questions persist over whether trilateral frameworks will survive Trump, whose first presidential term in office showed his preferences for a bilateral approach to diplomacy.
“It will be up to key allies like Japan and the Philippines to underscore the tangible benefits of trilateral mechanisms to the Trump administration,” Dr Jimbo said.
He said the series of trilateral engagements this week reinforced the shared strategic vision by Japan, the US, and regional partners, who maintain there is a growing rationale for sustaining these partnerships as vital to countering challenges across the Indo-Pacific.
Prof Heng was also of the view that Trump may acquiesce if allies “punch their weight”, given how he “dislikes allies that he considers free-riders”.
In the Japan-US-Philippines dialogue, participants confirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation “as natural partners and maritime nations linked together by the Pacific Ocean”.
And in the Dec 9 Japan-US-South Korea meeting, officials discussed North Korea and its deployment of troops to help Russia fight its war in Ukraine, while reaffirming the need for close coordination “that remains ensured even in the face of various complicating situations”.
Two days later, different officials from the three countries talked about the Indo-Pacific and how they could possibly further cooperation in “maritime security, economic security and development cooperation”.
Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at US think-tank Hudson Institute, told ST: “China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are deepening their cooperation, and the worst-case scenario is a two-front conflict where China decides to invade Taiwan and North Korea launches a supporting military operation on the Korean Peninsula.”
This means Japan will have to step up as a key Indo-Pacific bulwark in a politically turbulent era, with Dr Nagao noting its relative political stability, despite Mr Ishiba’s weak position as the leader of a minority government.
At the very least, he said, the Liberal Democratic Party remains in power and policies are driven mainly by bureaucracy rather than political personalities.
“Japan should amplify its role in shaping security dialogues and leveraging its alliance networks,” Dr Jimbo added.
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