Key Developments in the MENA Region: The Week Ahead

Analysts are keeping a close watch on upcoming regional data releases that will shed light on the economic outlook through 2025–26. The International Monetary Fund’s latest regional economic outlook—published on 1 May—projects only modest GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa.

Early‐May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases will provide additional insight: S&P Global has scheduled PMIs for Gulf oil‑exporting countries (such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia) on 5 May, with PMIs for Egypt and Lebanon to follow on 6 May.

These indices, which track output, new orders, and pricing pressures, will be instrumental in revealing demand trends and shaping monetary policy expectations across diverse economies in the region.

Morocco is set to host the UNEP Finance Initiative’s Africa & Middle East Regional Roundtable in Marrakech on 6–7 May 2025. This high‑level meeting will bring together banks, insurers, and investors to advance the sustainable finance agenda in MENA.

Discussions will focus on key themes including climate mitigation, nature‑positive investment, carbon finance, and the concept of just transitions. As governments throughout the region work to develop green finance regulations, outcomes from this roundtable could play a decisive role in steering regional efforts to attract “green” capital, underpinning the broader drive toward a sustainable economic future.

President Trump’s mid‐May visit to Saudi Arabia marks a significant moment for U.S. diplomacy and economic ties in the region.

According to Axios, the president is scheduled to host a high‑level summit with leaders from all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar.

Organized under the auspices of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the meeting is expected to focus on issues such as new investment opportunities, arms deals, and collaboration in emerging sectors like artificial intelligence.

This summit continues a pattern established during Trump’s earlier term and comes at a time when the U.S. is also negotiating a potential nuclear deal with Iran.

Lebanon’s long‐delayed municipal elections have finally been scheduled, with voters in North Lebanon and Akkar slated to vote on 11 May 2025.

These elections are seen as pivotal, given that more than half of Lebanon’s municipal councils are currently either non-functional or administered by temporary governor’s control due to persistent funding shortages and political disputes.

With a strong contest expected in these regions, this electoral round is anticipated to inject new local representation and help address long‑standing governance challenges in a country grappling with serious economic and political turmoil.

On 6 May 2025, both Lebanon and Syria will observe Martyrs’ Day—a public holiday dedicated to commemorating nationalist leaders executed in 1916.

In Lebanon, the day is marked by official ceremonies, which include the closure of schools and government offices, while in Syria, similar public observances take place. Although largely symbolic, the day serves as an important moment for societal reflection on issues of national identity and colonial history.

Readers should anticipate detailed local media coverage of these commemorative events, along with any political statements that may arise from Lebanese or Syrian officials regarding national heritage and ongoing identity debates.

In early to mid-May 2025, the Middle East and North Africa region will witness significant developments: a pivotal U.S.–Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia, crucial municipal elections in Lebanon, key economic data releases, and a sustainable finance roundtable in Morocco.

Additionally, Martyrs’ Day observances in Lebanon and Syria will offer moments of reflection on national identity. These events collectively provide valuable insights into the region’s evolving political, economic, and cultural landscape.