LIVE: Brent and WTI Oil Prices Recover on Market Optimism

Oil prices slipped into the red on the day, with WTI edging down 0.16% to $62.17 per barrel and Brent crude declining 0.14% to settle at $66.

Crude has come under renewed pressure amid growing prospects of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement that could lift export restrictions on Iranian oil. Iran’s foreign minister said the country had reached a “better understanding” with the U.S. following talks on Saturday, raising expectations of a return of sanctioned barrels to global markets.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Vortexa reported a 19% week-on-week jump in crude oil stored on tankers idle for at least seven days, reaching 78.19 million barrels—the highest volume in eight months.

Oil prices have been trending lower throughout April, hitting a four-year low on April 9. Market volatility has been fueled by mounting concerns over global economic growth and energy demand, exacerbated by tariff-related tensions. Although President Trump paused his latest round of reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday, all previously announced trade measures remain in place, continuing to weigh on sentiment.

Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP) is exploring the sale of its majority stake in Brazos Midstream II, potentially valuing the holding at over $2 billion, including debt, per three sources.

Brazos operates in Texas’ Permian Basin, transporting natural gas, NGLs, and oil across five counties, with infrastructure like compression and crude storage.

Jefferies Financial Group is pitching the stake to midstream firms and investment funds, though a deal isn’t guaranteed. MSIP acquired Brazos in 2018 for $1.75 billion; Williams Companies, holding a 15% stake, is unlikely to bid.

The sale aligns with active midstream dealmaking trends.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues are projected to fall 22% year-on-year in April to $11.6 billion (960 billion rubles), driven by lower oil prices, a stronger ruble, and reduced profit-based taxes, per Reuters estimates. 

Official data is due May 7. This follows a 17% revenue decline in March to $13.2 billion, with first-quarter earnings down 10% to $31.8 billion, according to Russia’s Finance Ministry. 

The Economy Ministry cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $68/barrel from $81.70, signaling weaker demand amid U.S. tariff wars. 

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that escalating trade disputes could further erode oil demand, threatening Russia’s economy.

Energy stocks rose on Thursday, tracking a partial recovery in oil prices, with Brent up 0.79% and WTI up 1.03% after a 2% drop Wednesday.

Optimism over potential U.S.-China tariff reductions lifted sentiment, though OPEC+ output hike fears and U.S.-Iran talks capped gains. Stock performances:

• TotalEnergies (TTE): +0.70%
• Marathon Petroleum (MPC): +0.98%
• Shell (SHEL): +0.59%
• Chevron (CVX): +0.93%
• BP (BP): +0.89%
• Equinor (EQNR): +0.35%
• Enbridge (ENB): +0.44%
• Imperial Oil (IMO): +0.86%
• Cenovus Energy (CVE): +1.67%

CVE led gains, likely buoyed by refining strength, while EQNR lagged amid European market caution.

Tariff uncertainty and demand concerns continue to influence the sector.

U.S. truckers are hauling record volumes of goods like auto parts and appliances, driven by pre-tariff stockpiling, but a slowdown looms as Trump’s 145% tariffs on China and 10% global duties choke economic activity. 

The $906 billion industry, recovering from a freight recession, faces declining demand from manufacturing, which drives 60% of trucking miles. 

Dean Croke, principal analyst at Roper Technologies’ DAT Freight and Analytics, explained “Things have turned south in a hurry with this trade war that’s emerging,” adding, “None of the signals are good when it comes to truckload demand.” 

Spot rates rose to $1.60/mile, but flat 2025 volumes are expected. 

China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, like beef, further strain trucking. 

Weakening manufacturing and imports signal reduced oil demand, potentially pushing prices lower as economic activity slows.

New Mexico’s San Juan Basin, a historic oil and gas hub, is struggling as Trump’s tariffs raise costs and dampen drilling prospects. 

Local driller Sean Dugan notes pipeline costs soaring from $80,000 to $120,000 due to Asian import tariffs, squeezing margins in a region already hit by low natural gas prices post-2008. 

Low oil prices, below the $ 65-per-barrel threshold needed for profitable drilling, and tariff-driven economic fears are stalling new projects in this historic region. 

“You know, drill baby drill and lower oil prices are not simpatico,” explained George Sharpe, investment manager for Merrion Oil and Gas, one of the San Juan Basin’s oldest drillers.

“I think the whole tariff thing is going to backfire on Trump.” 

Despite hopes for gas pipeline exports to Mexico, most local jobs now focus on servicing or decommissioning wells, not new drilling.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva urged swift resolution of trade disputes Thursday, citing President Trump’s aggressive tariffs—145% on China, 10% globally—as a drag on global growth. 

The IMF has cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% and its U.S. growth forecast to 1.8%, with recession odds rising to 40%. 

Uncertainty is hindering business investment and consumer spending, with poorer nations being hit the hardest. 

Financial markets rallied Wednesday on hopes of U.S.-China tariff relief, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling a potential deal. 

Weakening global demand could further depress oil prices, already down 8% on the month, undermining Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” push, as U.S. shale producers need $65/barrel for profitable drilling, per the IEA.

China refuted U.S. President Trump’s claims of active tariff negotiations, calling them “groundless” on Thursday, demanding mutual respect and full tariff cancellation. 

Trump hinted at reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145%, but China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs and rare earth export curbs persist. 

No reprieve was offered to China, unlike other nations with a 90-day tariff pause, escalating trade disputes via WTO complaints. 

Markets traded cautiously pre-bell, with the Dow down 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and NASDAQ up 0.18%. 

Stalled trade talks could dim oil demand prospects, though crude prices are trading slightly up on the day.

Oil prices climbed Thursday, with Brent crude up 01.19% to $66.91 and WTI up 1.46% to $63.18, recovering half of Wednesday’s losses. 

Investors weighed potential OPEC+ output hikes in June, driven by Kazakhstan’s defiance of quotas, prioritizing national interests. 

ING analysts noted, “Further disagreement between OPEC+ members is a clear downside risk, as it could lead to a price war,” 

U.S.-China trade talk optimism, following reports of potential U.S. tariff cuts to 50%, bolstered prices, though China demands full tariff removal. 

U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, alongside new sanctions, add uncertainty, as eased sanctions could increase Iranian oil supply, potentially capping price gains.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com