Live Updates: Israel’s Cease-Fires in Lebanon and Gaza Appear Fragile

The Israeli military said in a statement that it had fired “warning shots” after what it described as “suspects” approached their forces. It also said that an unspecified number of people had been arrested and were now being questioned at the scene.

The cease-fire agreement, which was signed in November and halted the deadliest war in decades between Israel and Hezbollah, stipulated that both sides withdraw from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers would be deployed in force to secure the area. Israel last Friday released a statement indicating it would remain in southern Lebanon amid doubts about the Lebanese Army’s ability to stymie Hezbollah’s resurgence. The United States and France, which are observers to the cease-fire, have not said publicly whether Hezbollah has withdrawn from the areas it agreed to leave.

Negotiators had hoped the cease-fire deal would become permanent, returning a measure of calm to a turbulent region. But as the deadline passed on Sunday, fears grew of a sustained Israeli occupation and renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

In Gaza, Israeli troops were preventing Palestinians from returning to their homes in the north of the Gaza Strip on Sunday because Israel said Hamas had violated the terms of their cease-fire agreement that went into effect a week ago by not returning female captive Israeli civilians first. Israeli officials said that one particular civilian hostage, Arbel Yehud, was supposed to be one of the four women released on Saturday. Hamas accused Israel of stalling.

Despite the shakiness of the truces, all the warring sides appeared to want the cease-fires to hold, on condition that the terms were upheld by their adversaries.

Here is what else to know:

• Southern Lebanon: Residents of some southern Lebanese towns had called for their neighbors to gather early Sunday morning and head to their homes in a convoy, despite the warnings from Israel not to return. The Lebanese military said it was accompanying civilians returning to several border towns to try to ensure their safety. The military said in a statement that a Lebanese soldier was among those killed by Israeli fire. Israel did not immediately comment on that claim.

• Returning north: The Israeli government said that it would not allow displaced Palestinians to return to Gaza’s north until the issue of Ms. Yehud’s release was resolved. On Sunday, one of the smaller armed groups supported by Hamas in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, said it was holding Ms. Yehud and that she would be released before next Saturday. Israel denied that any agreement had been reached on Ms. Yehud’s return. The holdup has left many Palestinians in a state of anxious waiting, as they were already packing their belongings, including kitchen supplies, clothing and mattress pads.

• Displaced Palestinians: A suggestion by President Trump to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and ask Egypt and Jordan to take in more Palestinians raised new questions on Sunday about United States policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and two of its most important allies in the Middle East. Mr. Trump’s comments appeared to echo the wishes of the Israeli far right that Palestinians be encouraged to leave Gaza — an idea that goes to the heart of Palestinian fears that they will be driven from their remaining homelands.

Ibrahim Hamoud, 41, said on Sunday that he had recently seen a video sent by a friend in the Lebanese Army of his house inside the village: The structure was standing — offering him a major sigh of relief. But the video also showed an Israeli tank stationed just outside his front door.

“I’ve been away from my village, from my house, for more than a year,” he said in a phone interview. “I never thought I’d be back.”

Entire neighborhoods were reduced to rubble in Israel’s Oct. 1, 2024, invasion of southern Lebanon, which was aimed at crippling the militant group Hezbollah. Meiss al-Jabal had a prewar population of about 8,000 and suffered some of the most severe destruction, according to an analysis last year by The New York Times.

Zeinab Suleiman arrived on the outskirts of her hometown, Kfar Kila along Lebanon’s southern border at 7 a.m. on Sunday. But by mid-afternoon, she was still waiting to enter the village, which also endured some of the most intense destruction during the war. On Sunday, she could see Israeli soldiers stationed inside the village, their weapons pointed in the direction of Ms. Suleiman and the crowd of people with her, all hoping to enter the town.

“Eight were wounded just in front of us. Israeli forces opened fire, preventing us from getting in,” said Ms. Suleiman, who is in her 60s. “I’ve been waiting for hours.”

Ms. Suleiman said she had seen a video of her house, which was destroyed. Other videos she watched of Kfar Kila showed burned houses, potholes in roads and destroyed olive trees, she said. Both Ms. Suleiman’s husband and brother were killed in the village during the war. The first place she hoped to go if she was able to enter Kfar Kila was their graves.

For those who managed to enter their villages, the scale of destruction was overwhelming.

In the southern town of Aita al-Shaab, much of which now lies in ruin, residents walked through the rubble-strewed streets and flattened buildings. Among them was Mohamed Srour, the town’s mayor, who had been displaced more than a year ago when the tit-for-tat strikes between Hezbollah and Israel began.

He said that Israeli soldiers had not yet fully withdrawn from the town and claimed that they were firing sporadically at civilians. The claims could not be independently verified. Still, Mr. Srour remained resolute.

“Today, Aita is celebrating the long-awaited return,” he said. “The houses are destroyed and the livelihood is gone, but our will to live is stronger. We will build again.”

For decades, Hezbollah has been the dominant political and military force in Lebanon, a country with a multitude of factions and sects that all jockey for power and influence. For years, as the country careened from crisis to crisis, no major political decision had been made without the blessing of Hezbollah. The group controlled the most important government agencies and had oversight over key infrastructure like the Syrian border and the port in the capital, Beirut.

But Hezbollah’s political sway has diminished since Israel decimated the group’s top ranks in a devastating 14-month-war. For the first time in years, Hezbollah has found itself on the political back foot and facing growing political momentum to wrest control back from the group.

Earlier this month, Lebanese lawmakers elected a new president, Mr. Aoun, after years of political gridlock that many analysts had attributed to Hezbollah. Days later, lawmakers named Mr. Salam, a prominent diplomat whom Hezbollah had long opposed, as prime minister.

Since his election, Mr. Aoun has pushed to consolidate all military power within the state — effectively undercutting Hezbollah’s claim that it is the only force capable of protecting Lebanon’s borders and doing away with its justification for its vast arsenal.

But experts have warned against writing off Hezbollah’s political weight just yet. And if Israel continues to occupy Lebanon, it could revitalize the group’s mostly Shiite Muslim support base as they look for a patron and protector against Israeli forces.

The focus in Lebanon now is toward “disarming Hezbollah and transitioning from the era in which Hezbollah was seen as having the right to acquire weapons,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, the deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, the Lebanese capital. Any prolonged Israeli occupation “would put the breaks on that momentum, which is happening organically,” he added.

Hezbollah has not said how it plans to respond to Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese soil. Some Hezbollah lawmakers have vowed retaliation. But other Hezbollah officials instead shifted responsibility for responding to Israel to the Lebanese government. The group’s statement on Friday said that it was up to the state “to reclaim the land and wrest it from the grip of the occupation.”

That move is a tactic Hezbollah used a few months ago when it called on the state to provide for thousands of Lebanese displaced by a war it had pulled the country into. It’s also a reflection of the group’s current weakened state.

Still, experts warn that any prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah, a group that was founded to liberate Lebanon from Israeli occupation and that has portrayed itself as the only force capable of protecting Lebanon’s borders.

“I believe neither parties have an interest in resuming the war,” said Sami Nader, the director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University of Beirut. “But as long as Israel is occupying Lebanon, it’s reviving the narrative of Hezbollah.”

Under the terms of the initial phase of the deal agreed to this month, Israel had been expected to withdraw some of its forces to allow hundreds of thousands of displaced Gazans to head north after a hostage and prisoner exchange on Saturday.

But the Israeli government said Hamas had violated the deal by not returning female captive Israeli civilians first and by failing to provide Israel with information regarding the status of other hostages, as stipulated by the agreement.

Israeli officials said that under the agreement, Arbel Yehud, an Israeli civilian held hostage in Gaza, was supposed to be one of the four women released on Saturday.

The hostages released were all soldiers who had been lookouts at a base on the Gaza border and were abducted from there on Oct. 7, 2023, during the Hamas-led attack on Israel that began the war.

The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said that it would not allow Gazans to head north “until the release of the civilian Arbel Yehud has been arranged,” leaving the timing of the troop withdrawal and the residents’ return unclear.

The Israeli government reiterated in a statement on Sunday that Mr. Netanyahu was “standing firm” on that decision. Ms. Yehud had also been expected to be released along with about 100 other hostages during a weeklong cease-fire in November 2023.

In addition, Hamas was supposed to have provided Israel with a list by late Saturday detailing the condition of the remaining 26 hostages expected to be released over the next five weeks. An Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, said on Sunday afternoon that Israel had still not received the list.

Israeli officials have said that they believe many or most of the hostages scheduled to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, but the status of some of them is not clear.

Hamas on Sunday accused Israel of stalling and of breaching the agreement by preventing displaced Gazans from moving north.

In a statement, Hamas said that it had informed the mediators that Ms. Yehud was alive and had given “all the necessary guarantees for her release,” adding that it was following up with the mediators in the hope of resolving the dispute.

The cease-fire deal was mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The Israeli official said on Sunday that Israel had not received any proof from Hamas regarding the status of Ms. Yehud.

But it appears that Hamas may not be holding Ms. Yehud.

Hussein al-Batsh, an official of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a smaller armed organization that sometimes rivals Hamas in Gaza, told The New York Times on Sunday that Ms. Yehud was in the custody of the Quds Brigades, the group’s military wing. He said that Ms. Yehud was not released on Saturday for what he called “technical reasons.”

Mr. al-Batsh added that senior Islamic Jihad leaders were involved in the discussions with the mediators. A spokesman for the group, Mohammed Al Haj Mousa, then said in a statement that Ms. Yehud would be released before next Saturday to allow displaced Gazans to return to the north as quickly as possible.

But Israel denied that any agreement had been reached on Ms. Yehud’s return. An official familiar with the details said on Sunday evening that contacts with the mediators were continuing and repeated that Israel would not allow displaced Gazans to move north until the issue of Ms. Yehud’s release had been resolved.

On Sunday, images of a large crowd of displaced Palestinians waiting near the Netzarim corridor, a zone built by Israeli forces that splits Gaza in two, to return to the north were circulating in Palestinian media.

Wafa, the Palestinian Authority’s news agency, reported that one person was killed and several others were wounded west of Nuseirat in central Gaza after Israeli forces fired at the crowd of people waiting to return to the north. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the reports.

Ghada al-Kurd, 37, said she had chosen to remain in central Gaza on Sunday despite longing to return to her home in the north. “I will not leave until everything becomes clear,” she said. “I will not risk my life — those soldiers cannot be trusted,” she added.

Ms. al-Kurd, who left her home and her two daughters behind in Gaza City in the early weeks of the war, was once again left wondering when she would finally get to see them. “Here we are just waiting, feeling stressed and anxious,” she said. “They are playing with our fate,” she added.

Johnatan Reiss, Gabby Sobelman and Myra Noveck contributed reporting.

Israeli officials said the agreement had required Ms. Yehud to be released on Saturday. They said they believed that she wasn’t being held by Hamas, suggesting the holdup wasn’t solely Hamas’s responsibility.

Hamas accused Israel of hesitating to implement the cease-fire agreement. The dispute was one of the most significant between the parties since the cease-fire took effect a week ago.

The holdup left many Palestinians in a state of anxious waiting, as they were already packing their belongings, including kitchen supplies, clothing and mattress pads.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been looking forward to returning to their homes in northern Gaza — many of which were destroyed in Israel’s bombing campaign — after long months enduring miserable conditions in makeshift shelters, schools and friends’ and relatives’ homes.

As of Saturday evening, neither Hamas nor the Israeli prime minister’s office had publicly announced plans for the release of Ms. Yehud.

It was unclear what exactly would need to take place for Israel to consider Ms. Yehud’s release arranged, but Hamas has confirmed which hostages will be freed to Israel in the past by sending lists to Israel through mediators.

The cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas says the Israeli military should withdraw eastward on the seventh day of the agreement and that displaced Palestinians could then begin to return to their homes. Even though Saturday was the seventh day of the agreement, the Hamas-run government media office said earlier this week that people would be allowed to return on Sunday.

Avichai Adraee, the Arabic spokesman of the Israeli military, posted on social media on Saturday that it was still forbidden to approach the corridor linking central Gaza to the north, without clarifying when that would change.

Palestinians in Gaza expressed nervousness as they waited for a resolution.

“Everyone is worried and cautious,” said Ibrahim Abdulwahed, 40, a displaced man in the central city of Deir al-Balah. He said he was hopeful Israel and Hamas would resolve the issue.

Others said their excitement about returning home was mixed with fears about the devastation they would encounter after 15 months of Israeli bombardment.

“My husband and I have been waiting for this day with so much anticipation, but I can’t help feeling frightened about the great destruction I’ll see on the way back,” said Nour Qasim, 22, a displaced person in Nuseirat, in central Gaza.